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With bowl games knocking on UCLA football’s door, what opportunities remain?

(Maleeha Zaman/Daily Bruin)

By Sam Settleman

Oct. 27, 2022 11:53 p.m.

No. 12 UCLA football won six straight games to open its season, vaulting to as high as No. 9 in the AP Poll with back-to-back wins over ranked opponents. A loss to No. 8 Oregon on the road quieted some of the buzz surrounding the Bruins, but UCLA still has the opportunity to put together a statement season. Sports Editor Sam Settleman takes a look at the Bruins’ potential outcomes for the rest of the season and what bowl games may await them.

Rose Bowl bound

(Jason Zhu/Daily Bruin staff)
UCLA fans cheer in the stands at the Rose Bowl. (Jason Zhu/Daily Bruin staff)

Few expected UCLA to be 6-0 in the middle of October.

The thought of the Bruins finishing the season 11-1 seemed borderline impossible.

But seven games into the year, with all but one of its toughest tests in the rearview mirror, UCLA has a realistic shot at doing just that. The blue and gold will be double-digit favorites against Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona and California, leaving its matchup against No. 10 USC as potentially the lone roadblock in the way of a one-loss campaign.

While it’s true that UCLA was gifted one of the easiest schedules in all of college football this season, there’s something to be said for winning the games you’re supposed to. Losing games they’re not supposed to lose has been a trademark of Bruin teams in recent years.

Beat the Cardinal, Sun Devils, Wildcats and Golden Bears, and replicate the domination of the Trojans from 2021, and the Bruins will find themselves 11-1. Unlike victories over the other four opponents, a win over USC certainly won’t come easy. But with home-field advantage and plenty of experience, UCLA will have a decent shot at coming out on top.

An 8-1 conference record with the tiebreaker over both Utah and USC would almost guarantee UCLA a spot in the Pac-12 championship game for what would likely be a rematch against Oregon on neutral turf.

By all accounts, the Bruins believe they can hang with the Ducks, and they might get the opportunity to show just that on Dec. 2 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. From there, the Rose Bowl – which pits the winner of the Pac-12 against the winner of the Big Ten – awaits.

Simply put, if UCLA takes care of business the rest of the way and wins a big one in Vegas, the Bruins will find themselves in the Rose Bowl for the first time since the 1998 season.

Settle for second

(Joseph Jimenez/Assistant Photo editor)
Junior linebacker JonJon Vaughns celebrates after a play. (Joseph Jimenez/Assistant Photo editor)

There is still another reality in which the Bruins make the Rose Bowl, though.

If UCLA can go unscathed through the rest of the regular season and earn a Pac-12 championship berth, it might not need a win to make it to the Rose Bowl. Should the Bruins lose that game and their opponent make it to the College Football Playoff, they would have a spot in the Rose Bowl anyway.

This scenario likely requires that UCLA beat USC in order to make it to the Pac-12 championship, which would knock the Trojans out of the CFP conversation. If Utah beats Oregon on Nov. 19, then it would set up a matchup between the Bruins and the Utes in the Pac-12 championship. Even then, two-loss Utah is already all but eliminated from CFP contention.

All in all, UCLA would likely need to find itself pitted against Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game. The Ducks would need to win that one and get some other lucky breaks around the country in order to slot themselves into the CFP, but that would set up the Bruins in the Rose Bowl, even with two losses on the season.

That being said, given that Oregon currently has less than a 10% chance of making the CPF, let’s assume this scenario does not play out. UCLA wins out in the regular season before losing the Pac-12 championship as Oregon advances to the Rose Bowl. Where does that leave the Bruins?

As the second choice from the Pac-12, UCLA would find itself in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, awaiting the second-place team from the Big 12 – likely TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas State or Texas.

Trojans create trouble

(Daily Bruin file photo)
Freshman running back Carsen Ryan (left) and redshirt senior wide receiver Jake Bobo (right) hug redshirt junior running back Keegan Jones (middle). (Daily Bruin file photo)

Beating the Trojans, however, might prove to be a tall order.

Perhaps the most realistic scenario left on the table for UCLA would be to win its games against Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State and Cal but fall to USC on Nov. 19. That would leave the Bruins with a 10-2 record, but on the outside looking in when it comes to fighting for a spot in the Pac-12 championship.

Barring any unforeseen losses from the other top teams in the conference, a pair of conference losses with no head-to-head tiebreakers over the Trojans or the Ducks would likely relegate the Bruins to third place in the Pac-12, bumping them out of contention for the Pac-12 championship and the Rose Bowl.

UCLA could still theoretically make it into the Alamo Bowl should the winner of the Rose Bowl make it to the CFP, but the Bruins would more realistically end up in a lesser bowl like the Las Vegas Bowl.

The Las Vegas Bowl featured Arizona State and Wisconsin a season ago, but this year will host a Southeastern Conference team, as opposed to a Big Ten team, versus a Pac-12 foe.

While the Bruins and their fans are likely thinking Pac-12 championship or bust after starting the season 6-0, a 10-2 season with a bowl game played at Allegiant Stadium – ironically, the host of the Pac-12 championship – would be a promising consolation prize.

It’s easy to get caught up in lofty expectations, but it’s hard to forget where this team was heading into this season. Winning the Las Vegas Bowl after a two-loss season would absolutely be a step forward for coach Chip Kelly and his program.

Deja vu

(Jack Stenzel/Daily Bruin)
The Bruins huddle during a game at the Rose Bowl. (Jack Stenzel/Daily Bruin)

All good teams are prone to lose a trap game once in a while.

Bruin fans probably know that as well as anyone. Coming off an upset win over LSU in 2021, UCLA fell to Fresno State in a game it was favored to win by 11 points. Maybe the Bruins got caught up in their win over the Tigers the week prior or maybe the Bulldogs were simply the better team, but there’s no denying the reality of a trap game.

Even this season, UCLA already survived a scare from South Alabama in week three, managing to eke out a win on a game-winning field goal as the clock hit triple zeroes. It’s possible the Bruins won’t get as lucky the next time.

UCLA could lose on the road in Tempe against an Arizona State team that’s proven to be scrappy since firing its head coach midway through the season. Or maybe Arizona will get the best of the blue and gold, with the Bruins looking ahead to their looming showdown with USC the following week.

The transitive property rarely holds in the Pac-12, as any team can beat any team on any given day. Losing one of the four matchups UCLA will be heavily favored in is well within the realm of possibilities.

Should the Bruins lose one of those and fall to the Trojans as well, they would boast a 9-3 record, almost certainly knocked out of contention for a top-two spot in the Pac-12. At that point, perhaps the most likely outcome for UCLA would be earning a spot in the Holiday Bowl, which hosts a Pac-12 team versus an Atlantic Coast Conference opponent.

It would be deja vu for the Bruins, who made the trip to San Diego for the same bowl a season ago.

If so, let’s hope this one plays out a little differently than last year’s game that never was.

Crumbling collapse

(Megan Cai/Assistant Photo editor)
UCLA players huddle during a timeout. (Megan Cai/Assistant Photo editor)

All of the above scenarios have UCLA losing at most two games the rest of the way.

While the odds might agree with that assumption, it’s certainly an ambitious floor.

This UCLA team is still somewhat of a mystery. With only one true quality win to their name, the Bruins still have work to do to prove they belong in the upper echelon of the Pac-12 with Oregon, USC and Utah.

While UCLA’s remaining four opponents outside of USC are clearly in a tier below, that doesn’t preclude the Bruins from dropping a couple of those games. Losing to the Trojans and adding at least a pair of other losses in the five remaining games would be a collapse, but it’s not out of the question.

If the Bruins go 8-4 or 7-5, they may instead be relegated to the LA Bowl, facing off against the top option from the Mountain West.

Anything less than a 9-3 record – and a bowl game against a non-Power Five opponent – would be a disappointing result for the Bruins. And while this outcome is the least likely option of the five, college football is always unpredictable.

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Sam Settleman | Sports editor
Settleman was the 2022-2023 Sports editor on the football, men's basketball and gymnastics beats. He was previously an assistant editor on the gymnastics, women's soccer, women's golf, men's water polo and women's water polo beats and a contributor on the gymnastics and women's water polo beats.
Settleman was the 2022-2023 Sports editor on the football, men's basketball and gymnastics beats. He was previously an assistant editor on the gymnastics, women's soccer, women's golf, men's water polo and women's water polo beats and a contributor on the gymnastics and women's water polo beats.
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