MLB Mock Draft 2023: Predicting where UCLA baseball’s outgoing players will end up
Jackie Robinson Stadium, the home of UCLA baseball, is pictured. (Joseph Jimenez/Photo editor)
This post was updated July 9 at 10:35 p.m.
UCLA baseball has seen multiple players selected in the MLB Draft every year since 2005, and the 2023 edition is primed to be no different.
Right-hander Alonzo Tredwell and third baseman Kyle Karros have cases to hear their names called on day one of the draft, while other draft-eligible Bruins may have their professional dreams realized throughout days two and three.
Daily Bruin Sports Editor Joseph Crosby and Assistant Sports Editor Benjamin Royer break down where they project likely Bruin draftees will be selected.
Right-hander Alonzo Tredwell
2023 stats: 4-2 record, 45.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 51 strikeouts
Heading into the 2023 season, Alonzo Tredwell was set to take the same jump Max Rajcic did a year earlier – transitioning from the Bruins’ closer to their bona fide ace.
And while there was a glimmer of what was possible for the 6-foot-8 right-hander – starting the season with 11 combined scoreless innings against Omaha and Vanderbilt – inconsistency and injuries curtailed a sophomore campaign filled with what-ifs.
Despite throwing fewer innings this year than in 2022 when he was a reliever, Tredwell’s stuff and length on the mound make him the Bruin most likely to get selected on day one. Featuring a low-to-mid-90s fastball, with a curveball, slider and changeup rounding out his arsenal, Tredwell’s four-pitch mix solidifies him as a low-risk, projectable starting pitcher.
What the former Freshman All-American lacks in experience, he has in results. Tredwell soared up the 2023 draft boards after appearing out of the bullpen in his first year at UCLA, striking out 62 and walking six batters in 47 innings.
A back injury ended Tredwell’s collegiate career at UCLA. He made his final appearance of the 2023 season April 22, ending his season with a loss against USC.
If health had kept Tredwell on the mound, it is likely the Southern California local could have slipped into the first round. However, taking his injury history into account – which includes a 2020 Tommy John surgery – a second- or third-round selection looks more likely in the days before the draft.
Keeping with recent draft history, which includes pitchers Rajcic and Jack Ralston and infielder Michael Curialle, the St. Louis Cardinals appear as candidates to take a flyer on Tredwell with their third-round selection and will try to replicate the success found with other Bruins.
But don’t be surprised if a team grabs Tredwell sooner.
Royer’s pick: Third round, No. 90, St. Louis Cardinals
Third baseman Kyle Karros
2023 stats: .284/.372/.420, 8 2B, 5 HR, 34 RBI
Kyle Karros has a lot going for him.
He’s 6-foot-5, with a frame that would suggest a lot of power from the right side. He carries a plus glove at the hot corner, he frequently flashes the leather, and above all, he just plain hits.
Plus, the pedigree that comes with being the son of a 14-year MLB veteran certainly doesn’t hurt.
Karros has the tools to succeed. His .276 career average was highlighted by a career-high .308 mark in his sophomore season, and in each of the past two years the third baseman has exceeded an on-base percentage of .365. Suffice it to say, Karros is a player with a relatively high floor because of his strong hit tool and plate discipline.
But where the right team could tease even more out of him is in the power. Karros has tallied 16 doubles and 11 home runs in the last two seasons, but a 53-point drop in slugging percentage from 2022 to 2023 is at least slightly concerning. Some of that could probably be attributed to the injuries he’s endured over the past two seasons, but the expectation is more pop for someone of his size.
With a high floor and potential for even further development, combined with an ability to thrive at third base, Karros projects to be a solid big leaguer for years to come, especially if a team can unlock the power that’s lurking beneath the surface.
That team might just be the one that employs his father as a broadcaster and brother as a pitcher.
Crosby’s pick: Third round, No. 95, Los Angeles Dodgers
Right-hander Jake Brooks
2023 stats: 6-6 record, 74.0 IP, 5.64 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 77 strikeouts
Jake Brooks had just two scoreless outings during the 2023 campaign, but those outings show what the right-hander can achieve under the right farm system.
After emerging as the Friday night starter for the Bruins in 2022, Brooks ended the season with an ERA below four. The then-sophomore made the All-Tournament team at the Shriner’s Children’s College Classic after tossing an eight-inning performance against Baylor – showcasing his potential against Big-12 foes.
However, in 2023, Brooks faltered, allowing four or more runs in half of his starts. Despite the high ERA, Brooks was second in the Pac-12 in walks per nine innings at 2.28.
As one of four UCLA participants at the 2023 MLB Draft Combine – alongside Tredwell, Karros and catcher Darius Perry – Brooks was able to pitch in front of MLB teams and had a chance to flip the narrative after his junior campaign.
Similar to Tredwell, if Brooks were coming out of his sophomore season, his selection could have been higher, but instead, he will likely have to settle for a middle-round slot.
Royer’s pick: Seventh round
Catcher Darius Perry
2023 stats: .278/.386/.358, 6 2B, 3 HR, 31 RBI
Catcher is one of – if not the most – difficult positions on the diamond.
Crouched behind the plate for the entire game and tasked with managing a whole bullpen’s worth of pitchers while being involved in every pitch, Darius Perry exceeded the lofty expectations by leaps and bounds.
“I haven’t seen a better catcher than Darius,” said coach John Savage on April 23.
Savage is certainly going to talk up his own player, but the conference-wide consensus backs up the point. Perry was named to the All-Pac-12 team in both 2022 and 2023 while earning a position as the lone catcher on the All-Defensive team this season. He also led the Pac-12 in runners caught stealing.
And he did it all while hitting .278 and getting on base nearly 40% of the time over the last two seasons.
An offensively productive catcher who excels on defense is a recipe for an attractive prospect. The only missing piece to Perry’s assortment of talent is power, but a backstop with strong hitting, fielding and throwing tools is sure to get noticed by scouts, regardless.
Perry is all but a lock for a day-two selection. All that remains to be seen is just how badly a team wants a top-tier field general.
Crosby’s pick: Seventh round
Left-hander Ethan Flanagan
2023 stats: 2-1 record, 31.2 IP, 5.12 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 31 strikeouts
Savage had Ethan Flanagan slotted in to begin the season as the Sunday starter, but after injuries forced the southpaw to the bench, it was a long wait for his 2023 debut.
Flanagan finally appeared out of the bullpen April 4 before rejoining the weekend rotation against USC on April 23. When Flanagan eventually settled into his starting role – reaching 100 pitches for the first time in May – he only had two starts left in the season.
His best start of the year happened to be his last, allowing two earned runs in six innings against Arizona State while striking out five batters.
A postseason run could have allowed Flanagan to showcase his low-90s fastball and 12-6 curveball on a larger stage, but as a draft-eligible rising junior, he still has the choice to return to Westwood and become the Bruins’ ace.
But for now, the back half of the first 10 rounds seems like a sure bet for Flanagan.
Royer’s pick: Ninth round
Right-hander Charles Harrison
2023 stats: 1-0 record, 26.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 37 strikeouts
Charles Harrison was one of the lone bright spots for Savage in 2023.
While Harrison – like many others on the team – missed time because of injury, the right-handed reliever was electric when he was on the field. He drastically reduced his ERA from 2022, dropping from 4.31 to 1.38 this season.
Across 22 outings, Harrison allowed runs in just four appearances while never giving up more than one. All the while, he carried a strikeouts per nine innings rate of 12.8, punching out 37 against just eight walks.
The upside as a leverage reliever is there. It’s unlikely that a team would develop Harrison into a starting pitcher, but the potential to be a two-to-three-inning long reliever or high-leverage piece is certainly not out of the question.
Harrison isn’t a day-one talent, but as the clock winds down on day two, it wouldn’t be surprising to hear his name called.
Crosby’s pick: Ninth round
Outfielder Carson Yates
2023 stats: .216/.358/.324, 4 2B, 3 HR, 25 RBI
On March 7, Carson Yates smashed a ball off of the batter’s eye in center field. He rounded the bases, but no home run was signaled – the umpire crew had missed the ball leaving the yard.
His first home run of the year was wiped from the record books, and instead, Yates had to settle for a triple – his only of the season.
That was Yates’ season in a nutshell. The powerful corner outfielder had a steep drop-off from his sophomore year when he hit .288 with eight home runs. Despite his lack of success at the plate in 2023, Yates led the team in stolen bases and started in 45 of the 53 games the Bruins played – a consistent member of the Bruins’ lineup in an injury-heavy season.
Yates also has the option to return for one final year in blue and gold, but his power potential and baserunning ability could make him a sneaky selection in the 2023 draft.
Royer’s pick: 14th round
Left-hander Jake Saum
2023 stats: 1-0 record, 11.0 IP, 7.36 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 16 strikeouts
Jake Saum is a curious case.
With a low arm slot from the left side, Saum became Savage’s designated “left-handed one out guy,” often called on to get a handful of left-handed batters out.
The southpaw made 22 appearances in 2023 but recorded just 33 outs, all while allowing 13 hits, 10 walks, two hit batters and nine earned runs. All in all, his senior season was a step back from the 3.73 ERA he carried as a sophomore and junior.
The LOOGY is also a dying breed, as MLB rule changes have forced relief pitchers to face three batters at a minimum, meaning a manager can’t rely on one reliever to just get one out.
But despite all that, Saum is still a candidate for a team to use their late-round pick. With his lower-than-average arm slot and high strikeout rate, capped off by his 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings as a senior, there’s potential for Saum to develop into a journeyman reliever.
Crosby’s pick: 20th round