Fresh off a Big Ten tournament championship title, No. 1 seed UCLA baseball (51-6, 28-2 Big Ten) will host its second-straight NCAA tournament regional as Virginia Tech (30-24, 15-15 ACC), Cal Poly (36-22, 22-8 Big West) and Saint Mary’s (34-25, 15-12 West Coast) travel to Westwood. With the Bruins’ tournament run beginning Friday, sports staff writers Mika McCaffrey and Noah Massey and Daily Bruin contributor Matthew Knauer predict how the team will fare over the weekend.

Matthew Knauer
Daily Bruin contributor
Prediction: Los Angeles regional winner

The overall No. 1 national seed comes with the easiest regional pool, and UCLA certainly got a generous draw.

No. 2 seed Virginia Tech ranks 42nd in RPI and has posted a negative run differential – seen as a team on the bubble coming into Selection Sunday. While the Bruins swept the SEC slate of then-No. 20 Tennessee, then-No. 23 Texas A&M and then-No. 4 Mississippi State at Globe Life Field, the Hokies got swept by the trio, twice surrendering double-digit runs. Virginia Tech ace Brett Renfrow is expected to be healthy for the regional, but will likely be used in game one against No. 2 Cal Poly.

Cal Poly split the Big West regular-season title with UC Santa Barbara before winning the postseason tournament to earn an automatic bid to the NCAA regionals and rank 73rd in RPI. The Mustangs have a strong weekend rotation, and closer Nick Bonn is the only pitcher ranked ahead of sophomore right-hander Easton Hawk nationally in saves. Though, twice they’ve faced top-25 opponents, being swept by both then-No. 25 USC and then-No. 7 Oregon State.

UCLA will face No. 4 seed Saint Mary’s on Friday, the winner of the West Coast Conference.

The Gaels went 34-25 overall with a 15-12 conference record, ranking 140th in the RPI. Right-hander John Damozonio is expected to pitch against the Bruins, having totaled 81 strikeouts to just 19 walks in 76.1 innings with a 2.71 ERA.

Even with the uncertainty surrounding junior right-hander Logan Reddemann’s availability, the Bruins should ease their way to a super regional, where they’d likely host West Virginia or Wake Forest.

Mika McCaffrey
Daily Bruin staff
Prediction: Los Angeles regional winner

There’s always a chance for an underdog story, but the NCAA regional hosted by the Bruins is not likely to be one of them.

It’s no surprise the No. 1 team in the nation is favored to win the LA regional. The team has held the top position since the preseason and has defended it well over the course of 57 regular season games.

The Bruins are powered by their junior core, most of which have been on the team since their 2024 freshman seasons. Therefore, a bulk of the Bruin roster has NCAA tournament experience from the team’s 2025 run to the Men’s College World Series, granting the Bruins an additional advantage heading into the postseason.

UCLA will begin its regional run against Saint Mary’s – the lowest-ranked opponent entering the weekend. Saint Mary’s has yet to face a team ranked in the top 25 this season and has amassed a record just nine games above .500. Given the team’s lack of experience against opponents at the caliber of UCLA, the Bruins should be able to take care of business Friday. Moreover, the regular season schedule of Cal Poly also lacks ranked competition throughout.

But the Hokies may pose the greatest challenge for the Bruins.

Virginia Tech has faced ranked competition both in the beginning of its season and recently. In fact, Virginia Tech most recently faced off against and fell to No. 4 North Carolina. While the Hokies lost, they still put up four runs to the Tar Heels’ 10 – and even held a lead at some point – demonstrating the team’s ability to challenge highly-ranked opponents like the Bruins.

Still, Virginia Tech has repeatedly lost to ranked competitors, including some overlapping opponents with UCLA like Tennessee, Mississippi State and Texas A&M.

If the past is any indication of the future, the Bruins should cruise on to the super regional round.

Noah Massey
Daily Bruin staff
Prediction: Los Angeles regional championship loss

When was the last time the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament was eliminated in its own regional?

Last season.

Vanderbilt, the winner of the prestigious SEC tournament championship, went 1-2 in its double-elimination regional tournament, falling short of qualifying for the championship game.

The Commodores were defeated by Louisville – who wasn’t ranked before the tournament – and Wright State, the champions of the Horizon League.

While UCLA is a heavy favorite to win its regional, baseball is a fickle sport. All it takes is one loss in the first or second rounds of the double-elimination tournament to make advancement much more difficult.

And even the best teams lose sometimes.

No. 2 seed Virginia Tech might not have a great record, but it still managed to defeat No. 2 overall seed Georgia Tech earlier this season. No. 3 seed Cal Poly got swept by UC Santa Barbara – who broke UCLA’s 27-game win streak earlier this season – in the regular season but defeated them in the game that mattered most: the semifinal of the Big West tournament.

Even No. 4 seed Saint Mary’s defeated teams responsible for three of UCLA’s six losses this season – UCSB, UC San Diego and San Diego State.

However, the Bruins could also end up like the top-overall seed in 2024.

Tennessee, the last D1 baseball squad to eclipse the 50-win mark before the NCAA tournament began, steamrolled its regional opponents en route to a national championship.

UCLA will need to prove it won’t let its sky-high expectations get the best of it and cause it to forget about the first step – escaping its own regional intact.