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Gameday predictions: UCLA vs. Oregon State

Pictured are senior linebacker Kain Medrano (left) and senior wide receiver Keegan Jones (right). (Photos by [left to right]: Jeremy Chen/Daily Bruin senior staff, Megan Cai/Daily Bruin senior staff. Photo illustration by Helen Quach/Design director)

By Benjamin Royer, Felicia Keller, Gavin Carlson, and Joseph Crosby

Oct. 13, 2023 6:27 p.m.

No. 18 UCLA football (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12) will have the chance to get its second conference win of 2023 when it faces No. 15 Oregon State (5-1, 2-1) in Corvallis on Saturday. Here are this week’s predictions from Sports editor Joseph Crosby, Sports staff writer Gavin Carlson and assistant Sports editors Felicia Keller and Benjamin Royer.

Joseph Crosby
Sports editor
Prediction: UCLA 24, Oregon State 14

Matt Tuiasosopo hit his first career home run Sept. 27, 2009.

Announcer Mike Blowers predicted the rookie Mariner would launch that homer off a fastball in a 3-1 count into the second deck in left-center field.

Blowers was nearly right, with Tuiasosopo only just missing the second deck.

What does this have to do with UCLA’s upcoming game against Oregon State?

More than you might think.

The Bruins last traveled to Corvallis in 2015 with a much different team than now. That year’s coaching staff featured Marques Tuiasosopo – the brother of the aforementioned home run hitter – as the team’s quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator.

With a tenuous connection between the Tuiasosopo brothers and this contest between top-20 teams, I will attempt to take on Blowers’ role.

Redshirt sophomore defensive back Jaylin Davies will record his first interception since the Bruins’ season opener when he jumps wide receiver Silas Bolden’s route midway through the third quarter to set up a touchdown drive.

An unrealistic prediction to be sure – the Beavers may not even end up in possession of the ball during the middle portion of the third quarter – so I’ll project something more likely to happen.

UCLA’s No. 2 rushing defense will keep Oregon State from winning on the ground, and a continually improving quarterback in freshman Dante Moore will do enough to keep the Bruins in front.

My Matt Tuiasosopo-like prediction or not, I foresee UCLA leaving Corvallis with its first road conference win of the year.

Gavin Carlson
Daily Bruin staff
Prediction: UCLA 31, Oregon State 28

In many years, this contest would be the main event of the Pac-12 slate.

The matchup features two teams ranked in the top 20 playing in a primetime slot, and it’s nationally televised.

It feels as though a ring announcer should be yelling “It’s time” before this marquee game.

But in 2023, the Pac-12 is arguably the best football conference in the nation, and there’s two heavyweight fights within the conference that have somewhat demoted the matchup between UCLA and Oregon State to undercard status.

The conference’s two highest ranked teams – No. 7 Washington and No. 8 Oregon – will decide who the Pac-12’s frontrunner for the College Football Playoff is at 12:30 p.m. on ABC. When that game ends, the conference’s biggest brand – No. 10 USC – will be moments away from taking on an equally recognizable name in No. 21 Notre Dame on NBC at 4:30 p.m.

Before the Bruins and Beavers even touch gloves, the conference’s three highest-ranked fighters will have already thrown punches.

But don’t be fooled. This fight should be seen as just as intriguing and important as the others.

UCLA and Oregon State each boast top-15 defenses against the run, top-25 rushing offenses and top-30 defenses overall. Saturday’s matchup should see two sides deploying similar attacks against their opponents.

They say “styles make fights,” and viewers should be in for a balanced battle all evening.

That being said, the Bruins are just slightly stronger in a few phases. Nobody is going to knock anybody out, but I’ve got UCLA just barely defeating Oregon State in a fight that goes the distance.

Felicia Keller
Assistant Sports editor
Prediction: UCLA 21, Oregon State 20

I am admittedly not the world’s foremost expert on college football. But I do know what happened the last time a UCLA team played Oregon State after putting up opposite results against shared Pac-12 foes.

The game ended in a tie, with both teams probably thinking they should have pulled off the win.

Of course, that was UCLA men’s soccer – the wrong football – but it was a similar situation. The men’s soccer team had tied Stanford and defeated California, while Oregon State had done the opposite.

Here, UCLA football has lost to Utah and beat Washington State – again, the opposite of Oregon State.

Now, I’m not suggesting this game will result in a tie – college football doesn’t allow those, and Ted Lasso demonstrated that most American football fans aren’t exactly fond of them.

But I am predicting the game will be close and will at least pose the possibility of going into overtime.

In college football, everything is scrutinized down to astonishing detail, and there is a statistic recorded for everything you could ever dream of – which is not exactly the case in soccer.

One of the things that often gets missed in soccer is the statistical value of a good defense. It’s virtually impossible to classify the importance of a defender’s tackle or the difference the specific angle of one’s body makes when nudging a player away from the goal.

But UCLA’s defensive excellence has been extremely well documented. On the back of new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, the Bruins are fifth in total defense, second in rushing defense and eighth in scoring defense – allowing just 12.2 points per game.

So I’m predicting this weekend’s game will see the Bruins win – on the back of their defense – with a tight finish of 21-20.

Benjamin Royer
Assistant Sports editor
Prediction: UCLA 17, Oregon State 10

Oregon State’s anomaly-filled game against California was peculiar.

The Beavers allowed 40 points to the Golden Bears – a team that could only muster up 31 against FCS-foe Idaho.

But let’s be real: That was a flash in the pan. Oregon State’s defense is good – quite good.

Coach Jonathan Smith’s squad has conceded fewer than 20 points per game through six games in 2023 and has built a consistent, defense-focused roster since arriving in Corvallis in 2018.

When Oregon State faced off against Utah, it achieved similar yet better success compared to UCLA, holding the Utes to seven points and coming away with a victory.

The Bruins and Beavers will live and die on the ground. Both of their offenses thrive when pushing the ball through their dynamic running backs. Whether it’s Damien Martinez or junior Carson Steele, should either get stuffed, the passing game will need to be relied on.

Yes, Moore and Oregon State quarterback DJ Uiagalelei share big-play traits, but instead of long touchdown passes, expect short drives and three and outs.

UCLA can – and will – emerge victorious in this contest. But are the Bruin faithful patient enough to accept a grinding and slow offensive contest for a third game in a row?

Coach Chip Kelly and company will find out soon enough.

It may be early, but a potential Pac-12 championship berth already hangs in the balance with one loss already on the Bruins’ record. UCLA needs a win in one of the hardest road environments in college football to stay in the hunt and leave the conference with a bang.

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Benjamin Royer | Assistant Sports editor
Royer is the 2023-2024 Assistant Sports editor on the baseball, gymnastics and men's water polo beats and a reporter on the football beat. He was previously a staff writer on the baseball, football and gymnastics beats. He is also a fourth-year communication student.
Royer is the 2023-2024 Assistant Sports editor on the baseball, gymnastics and men's water polo beats and a reporter on the football beat. He was previously a staff writer on the baseball, football and gymnastics beats. He is also a fourth-year communication student.
Keller is a 2023-2024 assistant Sports editor on the men’s soccer, swim and dive, women’s water polo, and softball beats. She was previously a contributor on the swim and dive and women’s water polo beats and a contributor in the News and Photo sections. She is also a second-year sociology student.
Keller is a 2023-2024 assistant Sports editor on the men’s soccer, swim and dive, women’s water polo, and softball beats. She was previously a contributor on the swim and dive and women’s water polo beats and a contributor in the News and Photo sections. She is also a second-year sociology student.
Gavin Carlson | Sports staff
Carlson is currently a staff writer on the football, men's basketball and women's basketball beats. He was previously a reporter on the softball and men's golf beats.
Carlson is currently a staff writer on the football, men's basketball and women's basketball beats. He was previously a reporter on the softball and men's golf beats.
Joseph Crosby | Sports editor
Crosby is the 2023-2024 Sports editor on the football, men's basketball and NIL beats. He was previously an assistant Sports editor on the baseball, women's golf, men's water polo and women's water polo beats and a contributor on the baseball and women's golf beats. He is also a fourth-year statistics student.
Crosby is the 2023-2024 Sports editor on the football, men's basketball and NIL beats. He was previously an assistant Sports editor on the baseball, women's golf, men's water polo and women's water polo beats and a contributor on the baseball and women's golf beats. He is also a fourth-year statistics student.
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