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Scouting report: UCLA men’s basketball vs Gonzaga

By Jon Christon

March 23, 2023 11:01 a.m.

This post was updated March 23 at 4:56 p.m. 

No. 2 seed UCLA men’s basketball (31-5, 18-2 Pac-12) will play in the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive season with a regional semifinal matchup against No. 3 seed Gonzaga (30-5, 14-2 WCC). While the Bulldogs have bested the Bruins in each of the last two campaigns – including a 2021 Final Four matchup – UCLA enters Thursday’s contest as 1.5-point favorites with a 64.9% chance to win, according to ESPN’s Men’s College Basketball Power Index. Here is this matchup’s scouting report from senior staff writer Jon Christon – who is indifferent about Las Vegas but is excited to have a Shake Shack next door to his hotel again.

Personnel:
Coach: Mark Few
Starting lineup: G Nolan Hickman, G Rasir Bolton, G Julian Strawther, F Anton Watson, F Drew Timme
Best player: F Drew Timme
X-Factor: G Julian Strawther

It’s not every day you play the country’s undisputed top offense.

But it’ll be nothing new for UCLA in its third matchup against Gonzaga in as many years.

The Bruins are well aware of the Bulldogs’ offensive mastery, with coach Mick Cronin explaining it simply.

“They have three things: coaching, … Drew Timme and shooting,” Cronin said.

Gonzaga coach Mark Few has manned the sidelines in Spokane, Washington, for 24 seasons, never finishing below second in the West Coast Conference while making every NCAA Tournament held since 1999. He is, as a matter of fact, the best coach in Gonzaga history and one of the best in the entire country.

Few has always been known for his offense, and he’s taken it up a few notches of late. The Bulldogs have led the country in points per game each of the last five seasons – averaging 88.1 points per game over that span – and have ranked No. 1 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric in four of those campaigns.

As Cronin said, Few hasn’t been doing this on his own. Perhaps no ingredient has been more important to Few’s recent offensive success as forward Drew Timme.

Timme has been the Bulldogs’ offensive focal point each of the last three seasons, scoring a team-best 21.1 points per game at a 62.1% clip this year. UCLA fans are well acquainted with the two-time WCC Player of the Year, as Timme scored 43 combined points in his two games against the Bruins in 2021.

Timme is most effective when he has space to operate in the paint, and he has just that with Gonzaga’s roster of shooters around him.

The Bulldogs shoot 38.7% from 3-point range as a team, the 11th-best mark in the nation. Three Gonzaga starters can effectively shoot it from deep, led by guard Julian Strawther.

Strawther, a former McDonalds All-American, is finally starting to come into his own on the offensive end following two years of inconsistency. After averaging 8.1 points per game across his freshman and sophomore seasons, Strawther has put up 15.3 points a night in 2022-2023 while connecting on a team-best 42.3% of his attempts from beyond the arc.

Behind Strawther are backcourt mates Rasir Bolton and Nolan Hickman, who shoot it at 39.2% and 36.8% clips from deep, respectively.

Off the bench, guard Malachi Smith – the WCC Sixth Man of the Year – shoots 50.6% from deep, albeit on fewer than three attempts per game.

Forward Anton Watson rounds out Few’s starting five. While he can’t shoot it as effectively as most of his teammates, Watson still averages 11.5 points per game on a team-best 66.8% mark from 2-point range. He is also the Bulldogs’ best defender, as the 6-foot-8-inch forward averages nearly two steals a game while guarding the other team’s best wing.

​Stat Profile:
KenPom ranking: 7
Adjusted offensive rating: 123.5 (1st)
Adjusted defensive rating: 99.6 (75th)
Adjusted tempo: 70.1 (40th)

Gonzaga’s offense goes only as far as its big man can shoulder.

Lucky for the Bulldogs, Timme has a pretty large frame at 6 feet, 10 inches, and 235 pounds.

Given his best player’s offensive prowess, Few initiates his offense from two primary locations: the high and low posts – Timme’s two main stomping grounds.

At the high post, Timme is as versatile as any big in college basketball. He is most dangerous going right at his defender, possessing one of the best face-up games in the country, but he also has the ability to shoot it from 20 feet if his defender is sagging off.

His passing ability, though, is what makes him capable of being the central hub of the nation’s best offense. Timme excels as a secondary playmaker on the short roll, finding his open shooters on the perimeter as the opposing defenses crash in on him.

The same can be said when Timme catches the ball at the low post. His old-school back-to-the-basket game is second to none, though he’ll burn opponents if they try to double team him. This creates a conundrum for opposing defenses: either leave your defender on an island to get cooked by Timme one-on-one, or send help and risk having him find an open shooter on the perimeter. Timme’s 111 assists are the most on the team.

Strawther is most often the beneficiary of Timme’s kick-outs. The 6-foot-7-inch guard also has the ability to catch opposing defenses in rotation and attack the rim. His size makes him the team’s best weapon in transition, too.

Timme’s gravity also frees up driving and cutting lanes for Bolton and Watson, helping make Gonzaga the most efficient 2-point offense in the country.

But, while Gonzaga’s star big man is the team’s focal point on offense, he may as well be its breaking point on the other end of the floor.

Few runs a fairly standard man-to-man defense, relying on the team’s length – with three starters at 6 feet, 7 inches, or taller – to disrupt the other team’s rhythm. The Bulldogs led the WCC in steals per game with 7.5 per game but have a fairly glaring weak spot at the center position.

Timme is not a bad individual defender, just part of a class of slow-footed big men that are getting gradually phased out of the game. Teams will spread Gonzaga out and attack him relentlessly in the pick-and-roll, often to great success.

The Bulldogs have countered by having Timme meet the ball handler at the point of attack, a la Nikola Jokic’s defensive strategy with the Denver Nuggets. This forces the ball handler to get rid of the rock before they can attack Timme, though it still puts pressure on Gonzaga’s star to recover before the ball swings back to his man.

Even if he does recover in time, though, Timme is hardly intimidating at the rim. He averages a paltry 0.9 blocks per game, while Gonzaga allows opponents to make 51% of their 2-point shots – a mark that ranks in the bottom half of the country.

Needless to say, Timme sits atop UCLA’s scouting report for both ends of the court.

Coach Mick Cronin’s best bet defensively is to play Timme one-on-one in the post. Neither No. 14 seed Grand Canyon nor No. 6 seed TCU had the personnel to use such a strategy, but the Bruins do.

Should freshman forward Adem Bona play, the Bruins will have three bodies to throw at the All-American, with redshirt senior forward/center Kenneth Nwuba and redshirt freshman forward Mac Etienne coming off the bench.

Cronin may have to change his game plan if his bigs get into foul trouble, which has been a common problem all season, but he shouldn’t overreact if Timme gets to the free-throw line early.

On the other end of the floor, UCLA and its paint prowess will have no problem attacking the rim on Timme.

If redshirt senior guard Tyger Campbell and freshman guard Amari Bailey can additionally put pressure on Gonzaga on the perimeter, that could be all she wrote on Timme’s college career.

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Jon Christon | Sports senior staff
Christon is currently a Sports senior staff writer. He was previously the Sports editor on the men's basketball and football beats and the assistant Sports editor on the women's basketball, softball, men's tennis and women's tennis beats. Christon was previously a contributor on the women's basketball and softball beats.
Christon is currently a Sports senior staff writer. He was previously the Sports editor on the men's basketball and football beats and the assistant Sports editor on the women's basketball, softball, men's tennis and women's tennis beats. Christon was previously a contributor on the women's basketball and softball beats.
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