This post was updated March 15 at 12:25 a.m.

UCLA men’s basketball (29-5, 18-2 Pac-12) will enter the NCAA Tournament as a No. 2 seed in the West Region. Sports Editor Sam Settleman and Daily Bruin senior staff writer Jon Christon take a look at the journey to get there and some of the most defining stretches of the Bruins’ season thus far.

Early-season hiccups

The first test of the season came and went without the Bruins making a statement.

After a 3-0 start against mid-major competition, UCLA had the chance to let the country know it was a true national title contender with back-to-back top-25 matchups in Las Vegas.

But the Bruins weren’t up to the task, showing a lack of experience in the process.

UCLA fell to then-No. 19 Illinois and then-No. 5 Baylor in the Continental Tire Main Event at T-Mobile Arena on Nov. 18 and Nov. 20, respectively. The Bruins had lost three starters and their top bench player heading into the 2022-2023 season, and it showed against the Fighting Illini and Bears.

The blue and gold shot just 37.5% against Illinois in the first game of the tournament, marking its first high-level competition since March Madness the year before.

Senior guard/forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. and redshirt senior guard Tyger Campbell struggled in their first test as the team’s go-to options on offense. The duo combined to shoot 17-of-45 in the loss, and the Bruins seemingly missed Johnny Juzang and Jules Bernard’s combined 28.4 points per game from the year prior. It didn’t get much better against Baylor, as Jaquez and Campbell shot sub-40% once again.

Most concerning, though, were the performances of the newcomers on the team.

Freshman guard Amari Bailey had just six points across the two games, and freshman forward Adem Bona barely bested him with seven. With a national audience watching, the prized freshmen could not live up to their five-star billing.

Worry set in among the Bruin faithful, and the team plummeted all the way to No. 21 in the AP Poll in the ensuing weeks, its lowest placement of the last two seasons. – JC

A (14-game) return to form

It wouldn’t take long, however, for UCLA to get right back to its preseason expectations – and beyond.

After dropping two in a row in Vegas, the Bruins would go on to rip off 14 straight wins, rising all the way to No. 5 in the AP Poll.

UCLA picked up a pair of uncontested wins against Pepperdine and Bellarmine to kick off the streak, before back-to-back matchups against Pac-12 opponents in early December gave the Bruins their first taste of conference competition.

But UCLA had no problems dispatching of Stanford and Oregon, bringing up its second true test of the season: an East Coast road trip against two ranked opponents.

A showdown with then-No. 20 Maryland in a hostile environment stood to have a large say over what the narrative would be surrounding UCLA entering conference play. Would the Bruins be a fringe top-20 team or reassert themselves into the top-10 conversation?

That question was answered in one half of play. A 49-20 halftime lead for UCLA turned into an 87-60 win in College Park, Maryland, marking the Bruins’ largest win over a ranked team since 2000. But UCLA wasn’t done just yet on the East Coast.

It walked into Madison Square Garden three days later and downed then-No. 13 Kentucky, picking up its second statement win of the week.

Six straight wins to begin official Pac-12 play extended the win streak to 14. It wasn’t all smooth sailing, including one-possession wins over Washington State and USC, but UCLA had officially put its early-season losses in the rearview mirror. – SS

Bailey’s injury prompts offensive woes

Amari Bailey may have struggled early, but he gained steam as the season went on.

With back-to-back breakout performances against Stanford and Oregon in December, it looked as if Bailey had turned a corner in his first year in Westwood – much to the excitement of coach Mick Cronin and company.

The Bruins parlayed Bailey’s increased play to the two huge road wins over Maryland and Kentucky, and the team was riding a high heading into official Pac-12 play.

That is, until Bailey hurt his foot ahead of the conference slate.

The freshman ended up missing seven consecutive contests with the injury and played limited minutes off the bench immediately following his return. UCLA went just 6-2 over this eight-game span, and its offense felt the brunt of Bailey’s absence.

The Bruins scored just 65.9 points per game over that stretch, its lowest output across any eight-game span all season. UCLA’s three worst shooting performances of the season took place with Bailey out of his regular role, as the team desperately missed his creation from the perimeter. The offense bottomed out against then-No. 11 Arizona on Jan. 21, when the team scored just 52 points on a 31.3% mark from the field.

And with Cronin staying mum about the severity of the injury, there was no end in sight.

Bailey eventually returned against USC, but he played limited minutes, and it was unknown if the injury would be something Bailey would have to play through the rest of the season ahead of the stretch run. – JC

An up-and-down finale

The return of Bailey prompted another torrid run for UCLA, but it didn’t come without a significant cost.

UCLA won 10 straight to close out conference play, finishing with an 18-2 record in the Pac-12 to win the regular-season title for the first time since 2013 by four games. The Bruins were rewarded with a near-sweep of the conference awards, including Jaquez winning Pac-12 Player of the Year and bringing the trophy back to Westwood for the first time in 15 years.

That run was capped off by a statement win over Arizona that punctuated UCLA’s first perfect home record since the 2006-2007 season.

And yet, UCLA’s close to the season was not a net positive.

In the win over the Wildcats, the Bruins lost Jaylen Clark to an Achilles injury that would ultimately sideline the junior guard for the remainder of the season, leaving UCLA without its Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year at just the wrong time.

Question marks surrounded the Bruins entering the Pac-12 tournament, but UCLA answered those for the most part until Bona went down in the semifinals with an injury of his own. A wounded Bruin squad had the cards stacked against it in a matchup with No. 2 seed Arizona, but still hung tough for 40 minutes before losing a second straight title game to the Wildcats.

It was a loss that still showcased UCLA’s ability to compete without Clark, but also had significant implications on the Bruins’ seeding in March Madness.

Whether it was Clark’s injury or the Pac-12 championship game loss, the NCAA Tournament selection committee punished UCLA by putting a team once thought to be a consensus No. 1 seed as a No. 2 seed. – SS

The road ahead

Fortunately for UCLA, the road ahead of it won’t be complicated significantly by its lack of a No. 1 seed.

The Bruins still wound up in the West Region of the NCAA Tournament, so No. 1 seed or not, UCLA’s path remains relatively unchanged. That path, however, will include a gauntlet of top-ranked squads, as the top five seeds in the West all rank in the top 11 of the KenPom rankings.

UCLA will likely match up with No. 7 seed Northwestern after a first-round matchup with No. 15 seed UNC Asheville, but the real test for the Bruins will show up in the Sweet 16, where a March Madness rematch with Gonzaga may await.

After the thriller between the Bruins and Bulldogs in the 2021 Final Four, the two teams could very well meet again with an Elite Eight spot on the line. And should UCLA get there, the favorite on the other side would be No. 1 seed Kansas – a team that had an NCAA-leading 17 Quad 1 wins this season.

Regardless of opponent, however, one question remains the same: Can UCLA compete for a national championship without Clark?

A small sample size in the Pac-12 tournament showed the Bruins can still compete without Clark, but the ceiling certainly isn’t the same.

UCLA will need quality minutes across its bench and potentially Herculean efforts from its stars to cut down the nets in Houston come April. – SS