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Scouting report: UCLA football vs. Pittsburgh

By Sam Settleman

Dec. 28, 2022 6:14 p.m.

No. 18 UCLA football (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12) will take on Pittsburgh (8-4, 5-3 ACC) in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, on Friday. The Bruins will have a chance at their first 10-win season in eight years, while the Panthers will look to pull off the upset despite missing some key pieces on both sides of the ball. Here is this week’s scouting report from Sports Editor Sam Settleman – who wishes we could’ve seen this matchup with both teams at full strength.

Pitt’s offense
Offensive scheme: Pro-style
Run-pass percentage: 42.3% pass, 57.7% run
Strength: Offensive line
Weakness: Opt-outs
X-factor: WR Jared Wayne

Throw everything you thought you knew about Pitt out the window.

Friday will not feature the same Panthers that won eight games this season, nor will it showcase the same team that lit up scoreboards in 2021 with the third-best scoring offense in the country.

Pitt has become somewhat of a hotspot for skill players as of late. Quarterback Kenny Pickett led a high-powered Panthers offense a season ago en route to a first-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft, while wide receiver Jordan Addison put up a season for the ages and won the Biletnikoff Award before transferring to USC.

However, the Panthers took one back from the Trojans this offseason, reeling in quarterback Kedon Slovis in the transfer portal. But Slovis is on the move again, announcing his transfer to BYU and forgoing his chance to play in the Sun Bowl.

The same can be said for running back Israel Abanikanda, who announced he will declare for the 2023 NFL Draft and opt out of the Sun Bowl. Abanikanda led the nation with 21 touchdowns this season and put up video-game numbers all year, including a 320-yard, six-touchdown outing against Virginia Tech.

But with Slovis and Abanikanda out of the picture, say hello to quarterback Nick Patti and running back Rodney Hammond Jr.

Neither Patti nor Hammond have seen a huge volume of snaps this year, so Pitt may be forced to lean on wide receiver Jared Wayne, one of the top receivers in the Atlantic Coast Conference and a 1,000-yard receiver in 2022.

Patti spent his first four years sitting behind Pickett on the depth chart, and finally got a chance to start in a meaningful game when Pickett opted out of the Peach Bowl a season ago. But after breaking his collarbone in the first quarter of that game and then losing the starting job to Slovis in the offseason, the Sun Bowl now represents Patti’s last chance at a start.

With five years at Pitt under his belt, Patti may not have the skills of Slovis, but will be a formidable starter nonetheless. He and Wayne have developed a solid connection in their time with the Panthers – one that the duo showcased in Pitt’s near-win over No. 6 Tennessee in September.

Slovis went down in the third quarter, with Patti completing four passes to Wayne in his absence, including a 4th-and-goal touchdown toss late in the fourth quarter to send the game to overtime.

Patti has a decent arm and can throw the ball with some zip, which plays into Pitt’s slant-heavy passing game. However, he’s limited with his legs and doesn’t have the same dynamic play-making ability shared by most of the top quarterbacks in college football.

Pitt’s offense relied heavily on its offensive line, which gave up just 1.5 sacks per game this season and led a top-50 rushing offense in the country. With some of its top playmakers absent, that offensive line will need to be at its best against UCLA’s redshirt junior linebacker Laiatu Latu and company.

Without a significant downfield threat, Pitt will need chunk plays on the ground and in the medium passing game to consistently move the chains against a defense that will be mostly intact and return defensive coordinator Bill McGovern on the sidelines Friday.

UCLA may not entirely shut down a weakened Pitt offense, but the Panthers likely don’t have the firepower to push this game into shootout territory with Slovis and Abanikanda sitting out.

Pitt’s defense
Defensive scheme: 4-3
Strength: Defensive line
Weakness: Opt-outs
X-factor: DB Erick Hallett II

Once again, Pitt’s biggest weakness on the defensive side of the ball will be the absence of some of its top players.

And while Slovis and Abanikanda may be significant losses, the Panthers have even bigger losses on defense.

Calijah Kancey has been arguably the best defensive tackle in college football this season. Kancey was a force inside all year, accruing 14.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. But the ACC Defensive Player of the Year is NFL draft bound and will miss the Sun Bowl with a shoulder injury that held him out of Pitt’s season finale.

Similarly, SirVocea Dennis has been one of the best inside linebackers in the country in 2022, but Dennis has also declared for the 2023 NFL Draft and opted out of the bowl game. Pitt’s second-leading tackler in defensive back Brandon Hill also opted out while defensive lineman Deslin Alexandre and John Morgan won’t suit up either.

With Kancey, Dennis, Alexandre and Morgan all absent, the Panthers will be without four players that produced half of their 45 sacks on the season – a figure that ranked second in the country this season.

With nearly four sacks per game, it’s no surprise that Pitt’s calling card on defense is its pressure. Coach Pat Narduzzi – a defensive specialist before landing his first head-coaching job at Pitt – prides his teams on stopping the run and getting to the quarterback.

Behind their stout defensive line, the Panthers had a top-10 rushing defense in the nation this season with less than 100 yards allowed per game on the ground. The sacks piled up as well, as Pitt ranked 16th in the nation in total defense.

Even without some of its top defenders, the Panthers and their blitz-heavy scheme should be able to generate pressure. Despite Kancey being sidelined in the regular-season finale, Pitt put up six sacks against Miami, including three from defensive lineman Dayon Hayes, who will start in the absence of Alexandre and Morgan.

Pitt often disguises its pressure, using stunts inside or dropping linebackers in the gap. With a diverse set of blitzes at the Panthers’ disposal, opposing quarterbacks can be forced into bad decisions when facing heat.

Such a scheme lines up well against a UCLA offense that depends on its rushing attack. The Bruins’ receivers have struggled to gain separation this season, so if the Panthers can shut down the running game and force redshirt senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson to drop back and throw the ball, UCLA could be in trouble.

Expect the Bruins to utilize a heavy dose of screens to nullify the threat of the blitz, with Thompson-Robinson likely also using his legs to escape Pitt’s pressure and improvise some plays on the move.

The matchup between UCLA’s offense and Pitt’s defense would be an impressive battle of talent with both sides at full strength, but with the Panthers missing the majority of their top defenders, the Bruins should have the upper hand.

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Sam Settleman | Sports editor
Settleman was the 2022-2023 Sports editor on the football, men's basketball and gymnastics beats. He was previously an assistant editor on the gymnastics, women's soccer, women's golf, men's water polo and women's water polo beats and a contributor on the gymnastics and women's water polo beats.
Settleman was the 2022-2023 Sports editor on the football, men's basketball and gymnastics beats. He was previously an assistant editor on the gymnastics, women's soccer, women's golf, men's water polo and women's water polo beats and a contributor on the gymnastics and women's water polo beats.
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