On the heels of its first loss of the season, No. 12 UCLA football (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) will return to the Rose Bowl for a homecoming showdown with Stanford (3-4, 1-4) on Saturday. The Bruins will have a chance to get back on track in their pursuit of a Pac-12 championship game berth, while the Cardinal will look for a third straight win after their 1-4 start. Here is this week’s scouting report from Sports Editor Sam Settleman and staff writer Gavin Carlson.

Stanford’s offense
Offensive scheme: West coast
Run-pass percentage: 54.6% pass, 45.4% run
Strength: Quarterback talent
Weakness: Lack of explosiveness
X-factor: QB Tanner McKee

After a four-game losing streak to start Pac-12 play, the Cardinal have won two straight contests.

But their offense is certainly not responsible for the turnaround. In fact, it’s been at its worst during the small streak.

After averaging 26 points per game in its first four conference defeats, Stanford has scored 31 combined points and has been held to just one total touchdown in its past two games.

In last week’s win against Arizona State, the offense didn’t sniff the end zone. Instead, the Cardinal relied on five field goals – including three from outside the red zone and two from the 18-yard line – in order to put 15 points on the board. Stanford hasn’t scored a touchdown since an opening-drive score against Notre Dame two weeks ago.

Whether it’s poor offensive recruiting or their need to play pass-heavy, catch-up ball in recent years, the David Shaw-led Cardinal are long removed from the run-heavy, physically dominant teams that brought them success in the 2010s.

Stanford ranks ninth in the Pac-12 in rushing yards per game and eighth in total offense. The Cardinal have also relied less on the run than ever before, as they rank 30th in the country and fifth in the conference with a 54.6% pass rate. That number has risen to 59.1% in the past three games, which would be good for 10th nationally.

Why has Stanford elected for a more pass-heavy offense? Its abysmal 3.7 yards per carry on the ground – which ranks 10th in the conference – is probably why.

Whether it’s because of offensive line play or the absence of a running back with the talent level of a Christian McCaffrey or a Bryce Love, this Cardinal offense shockingly hasn’t been able to run the ball at an efficient rate in recent years. It’s why it relies so heavily on what has proven to be a below-average passing attack.

Despite the high pass rate, Stanford is still only a measly seventh in the conference in passing yards per game.

Quarterback Tanner McKee has failed to live up to the hype that had him as a top-10 pick in many 2023 NFL mock drafts throughout the summer and even a few weeks into his subpar season. The towering 6-foot-6 junior pocket passer has already thrown six interceptions after throwing seven all of last year, and his 134.8 passer rating for the season is 10th in the conference.

McKee and the Cardinal love throwing outside the numbers, alternating between quick outs and curls in soft coverage with contested fades and back-shoulder throws against press man-to-man.

While the Stanford signal-caller possesses the size and arm strength necessary to make all the long throws to the sideline, he often forces the ball to his first read and gets into trouble.

McKee does have a solid deep ball and several physical receivers at his disposal, so the Cardinal can hit the occasional contested catch down the sideline.

But ultimately, Stanford lacks the speed and overall talent in its skill players necessary to create large separation from defensive backs and generate big plays. Even with the tendency to throw up the occasional jump ball, the Cardinal are tied for eighth in the Pac-12 in converted passing plays of 20 yards or more.

Everything is quick, short passes into tight windows or go-up-and-get-it throws on the sideline that rarely work. It’s why McKee’s completion percentage sits at 63.1% and why the offense tends to stagnate in the red zone, where press coverage increases and wide receiver separation is harder to create.

Yet somehow, the Cardinal run game is worse. It’s why you should expect to see a pass-heavy approach from the former running game powerhouse.

UCLA’s defense got gashed by the high-powered Oregon offense last Saturday, but it will still likely have the upper hand against Stanford’s stale offense at the Rose Bowl on Saturday night.

Stanford’s defense
Defensive scheme: 4-3
Strength: Secondary
Weakness: Defensive line
X-factor: CB Kyu Blu Kelly

The Cardinal may have switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 this year, but scheme switch aside, this is largely the same defense the Bruins saw a season ago.

With its offense’s inability to find the end zone in recent weeks, Stanford’s defense is the only reason the Cardinal are riding a two-game winning streak – allowing just 28 combined points in their last two outings.

Make no mistake though, those numbers overvalue what is truly a below-average defense.

The makeup of Stanford’s defensive unit is largely the same as 2021, with a strong secondary composed of experienced veterans and a weak defensive line that struggles against the run. When the Bruins and Cardinal met a season ago, UCLA ran the ball a season-high-tying 52 times, controlling the ground game en route to a victory.

Stanford is no different this season, allowing 187.6 rushing yards per game – good for 10th in the Pac-12. Oregon’s conference-leading rushing attack dropped 351 rushing yards on the Cardinal earlier this season.

While Stanford’s rushing defense might not be as terrible as conference counterpart Colorado’s, the Cardinal defensive line often gets manhandled at the point of attack to give up huge holes in the ground game.

The defensive line isn’t much better against the pass either. While Stanford ranks fourth in the Pac-12 with 17 sacks on the season, much of its pressure is generated through blitzes, with its four-man front rarely creating pressure on its own.

Thankfully for the Cardinal, their secondary has proven to be a point of strength in recent seasons and is a large reason why they rank second in the conference in passing yards allowed per game.

Cornerback Kyu Blu Kelly – a preseason All-Pac-12 First Team honoree after a standout 2021 season – headlines the back end of Stanford’s defense. But the Cardinal also have depth across the secondary, with their starting cornerbacks and safeties all touting at least four years of experience.

That being said, this group isn’t as strong as you might expect. Kelly – a future NFL corner – has looked beatable on multiple occasions this year, while the rest of the secondary has given up big plays late in games that have cost the team.

In Stanford’s recent win over Arizona State, Kelly got beat over the top on a simple go route on 4th-and-7 with under a minute to play, extending the Sun Devils’ attempted game-winning drive.

Just a few plays later, with Arizona State facing a 4th-and-19 with 11 seconds left, Kelly got beat once again, getting burned down the sideline with no help over top. While it was all for naught, as the Sun Devil wide receiver had barely stepped out of bounds, Arizona State went right at Kelly on a must-score drive – and it nearly worked.

Meanwhile, safety Kendall Williamson has also been routinely targeted in coverage, getting beat one-on-one on numerous occasions. Williamson and his fellow safeties have also been prone to make the wrong read on running plays, with opposing running backs finding the next level with ease.

This secondary will need to play up to its potential Saturday and force at least one turnover to give the Cardinal a chance. While UCLA redshirt senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson made a few precarious decisions against Oregon last weekend, Stanford ranks tied for 123rd in the nation with just six takeaways the entire season.

With Stanford’s struggling offense, this defense will need to be a difference-maker and tame a potent UCLA offense.

The blue and gold will likely have a very similar game plan to last year in this one: run the ball, control the clock and avoid mistakes. It might be boring, but the Bruins should walk out of the Rose Bowl with a win.