Scouting report: UCLA men’s basketball vs. North Carolina

No. 4 seed UCLA men’s basketball (27-7, 15-5 Pac-12) will take on No. 8 seed North Carolina (26-9, 15-5 ACC) on Friday night in the Sweet 16. The Bruins enter the contest as 2.5-point favorites and have a 71.4% chance of winning the game, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index. Here is this matchup’s scouting report from Sports editor Jon Christon, who is sad he won’t be going to the City of Brotherly Love this weekend.

Personnel:
Coach: Hubert Davis
Starting lineup: G RJ Davis, G Caleb Love, F Leaky Black, F Brady Manek, F/C Armando Bacot
Best player: F/C Armando Bacot
X-factor: G RJ Davis

If there’s one phrase to describe the Tar Heels’ roster, it’s top-heavy.

Although it lacks a reliable bench, North Carolina boasts one of the most impressive starting fives in the entire country – a lineup that has carried the team into the Sweet 16.

One starter in particular that UCLA will have to see early and often is forward/center Armando Bacot.

The anchor of the Tar Heels’ starting unit, Bacot is one of the most intimidating interior presences the Bruins will have faced all season. While he paces the team with 16.4 points per game and shoots at the second-most efficient clip in the Atlantic Coast Conference, Bacot’s impact is best seen off the ball.

In addition to being North Carolina’s primary screener, Bacot is arguably the best rebounder left in the tournament, with his 12.5 boards a night ranking third in the country this season. The forward/center is also a menace on the defensive end, blocking more than 1.5 shots per game.

Bacot is complimented in the frontcourt by forward Brady Manek. While the former controls the game within the paint, the latter’s best skill resides on the perimeter.

Manek shoots nearly 40% from beyond the arc, and no other frontcourt player in the ACC has drained more triples this year than the Oklahoma transfer. He has the ability to score inside as well, but his talents are best seen when he is the pop to Bacot’s roll.

Rounding out the frontcourt is forward Leaky Black, who doesn’t have one discernible skill on offense but serves as the team’s lockdown perimeter defender. His main contributions on offense are seen in transition, as his 6-foot-8 frame and guard-like skills allow him to push the ball off a defensive rebound.

Black’s transition playmaking takes some of the ball-handling responsibilities away from guards RJ Davis and Caleb Love, who are allowed to focus more on finding their own shot. Love leads the team in field goal attempts per game by a fairly wide margin but does so at a largely inefficient clip.

Instead, RJ Davis has looked the part of North Carolina’s best perimeter shot maker of late. The sophomore guard is coming off a 30-point, six-assist explosion against No. 1 seed Baylor in which he displayed his entire offensive repertoire – off-the-bounce 3s, rim pressure and high-level playmaking.

However, the Tar Heels’ first-round NCAA Tournament game showcased the other end of the RJ Davis experience, with the guard scoring only four points on 1-of-10 shooting against No. 9 seed Marquette.

Guards Kerwin Walton and Puff Johnson – the younger brother of former Tar Heel Cameron Johnson – are two players who see regular minutes off the bench, but both have seen their minutes steadily decline since the start of the postseason. Meanwhile, guard/forward Dontrez Styles has seen an uptick in playing time in the postseason, playing 40 minutes so far in the Big Dance.

Offensive/defensive stat profile:
KenPom ranking: 22
Adjusted defensive rating: 95.5 (44th) )
Adjusted offensive rating: 113.9 (20th)
Adjusted tempo: 70.5 (32nd)

With the starting five beginning to click, there is arguably no hotter team in the country than the Tar Heels.

North Carolina is the winner of eight of its last nine games, including a 32-point win over Marquette in the Round of 64 and the victory over Baylor in the Round of 32 in which the Tar Heels led by as much as 25 points.

The biggest factor in this hot streak has been an offense peaking at just the right time.

After some early growing pains in the transition from the legendary Roy Williams to first-year coach Hubert Davis, North Carolina has finally regained some Dean Smith-era fire in its motion offense.

With a four-out set, this motion offense usually begins with primary ball-screen action from Bacot for either RJ Davis or Love. From there, the end result is predicated upon what the defense gives the Tar Heels.

If opponents allow Bacot to roll hard and catch the ball deep in the paint – seen mainly against teams that switch often – it’ll likely be an easy two points for the second-most efficient player in the ACC.

But when Bacot catches the rock at the mid-post, that’s when the Tar Heels crank their motion up a notch.

With four shooters routinely surrounding the forward/center, he has the space to remain patient for the secondary actions to play themselves out. Whether it be off-ball cuts from Black, pick-and-pops from Manek or more screens to create room for Davis and Love on the perimeter, the Tar Heels’ offense is one of constant motion.

UCLA will not be able to switch on Bacot’s ball screens as it did against No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s. If the Bruins do try to switch, he will feast against the Bruins’ smaller defenders, and redshirt senior forward Cody Riley – who excelled against the Gaels – will get cooked by the quickness of RJ Davis and Love.

Instead, expect to see a heavy dose of drop pick-and-roll coverage on the ball and increased minutes for redshirt senior center Myles Johnson. But that doesn’t mean coach Mick Cronin and Co. should completely abandon the switch, as UCLA will have to take away the off-ball actions from its opponent – particularly on Manek pops.

On the other end of the floor, the Bruins will be the ones facing a drop defense, with Bacot being one of the most ideal fits for such a system in college basketball.

On top of his shot-blocking abilities, Bacot’s best defensive skill is ensuring that his team finishes off possessions, averaging nearly nine defensive rebounds per game.

Bacot’s rebounding – coupled with the Tar Heels’ big frontcourt – helped North Carolina become the ACC’s best rebounding team. Though they don’t force many turnovers, the Tar Heels have a formidable defense that gives opponents only one shot each time down the court.

As counterproductive as it might sound, expect UCLA to hunt Bacot early in the game – especially if junior guard/forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. is in the lineup.

If the Bruins – and Jaquez’s pump fake – can draw some early fouls on Bacot and force him to sit, it’ll mark good news for the blue and gold. Without Bacot, North Carolina has little to no rim protection and lacks any sort of rebounding ability.

In past games without Bacot, the Tar Heels have looked rudderless. Bacot has finished a game with four or more fouls 12 times this season, with North Carolina losing half of those contests.

The Tar Heels’ lopsided rotation is both a blessing and a curse in postseason play. When it’s firing at all cylinders, this team can’t be beaten. But if North Carolina is missing even one link in the chain, it could spell the end to its hot streak and its season.