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Christon Chronicles: Best, worst outcomes for men’s basketball’s NCAA Tournament run

Members of UCLA men’s basketball gather during a timeout during the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas. (Christine Kao/Daily Bruin staff)

By Jon Christon

March 15, 2022 12:24 a.m.

No. 4 seed UCLA men’s basketball (25-7, 15-5 Pac-12) will open up its NCAA Tournament with a matchup against No. 13 seed Akron (24-9, 14-6 MAC) in Portland, Oregon, on Thursday. Reigning national champion Baylor (26-6, 14-4 Big 12) is the No. 1 seed in the Bruins’ East Region, with No. 2 seed Kentucky (26-7, 14-4 SEC) and No. 3 seed Purdue (27-7, 14-6 Big Ten) representing the two other teams seeded ahead of the blue and gold. With the chance to go to a second straight Final Four, UCLA will have its work carved out for it.

Best case: NCAA Tournament champions

Despite a loss in the Pac-12 tournament championship game, the Bruins are finding their stride at just the right time.

UCLA has won eight of its last 10 contests and finally has its entire team healthy after a regular season marred by injuries. The blue and gold will have a chance to capitalize on its momentum in a moderately easy region of the bracket.

While Baylor is coming off a title, it is arguably the worst No. 1 seed in the field. The Bears have lost six games this season, compared to the Bruins’ seven, including their 72-67 defeat to Oklahoma in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament on Thursday.

Baylor is also dealing with some key injuries, with forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua out for the postseason and its leading scorer, guard LJ Cryer, having missed the last month with a foot injury.

Don’t get me wrong, the Bears are good. The advanced metrics love them, and they have the necessary experience to make a deep run. But considering top overall seed Gonzaga was the alternative in the West Region, UCLA is lucky to be where it landed. This Baylor team is beatable in a potential Sweet 16 matchup.

Speaking of beatable, Purdue is just that.

The Boilermakers have made each of the last six tournaments, but only three times have they advanced past the first weekend despite being a top-five seed in all but one of those dances. While this year’s squad boasts potential top-five pick Jaden Ivey in the backcourt, the team is simply bad defensively.

Should Purdue mark UCLA’s potential Elite Eight matchup, a second straight Final Four is definitely in the cards for the blue and gold.

And from there, who knows?

UCLA has already beaten the second-best team in the tournament – No. 1 seed Arizona – this season and showed last year it can go toe-to-toe with Gonzaga. In a winner-take-all game, especially one with the stakes of a national semifinal, anything can happen.

Worst case: Round of 32 exit

Before UCLA can take on Baylor and Purdue, however, it must play a pair of games in Portland.

And one team in particular can give the Bruins fits in the Pacific Northwest.

No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s will most likely be UCLA’s second-round matchup, and while they are not a Power Five team, the Gaels will certainly be a tough out for the Bruins.

The West Coast Conference runner-up has one of the best defenses in the entire country. The Gaels allow fewer than 60 points per game, with their adjusted defensive efficiency mark ranking in the top 10 in the nation.

In fact, Saint Mary’s boasts one of the best wins of any team in the nation on its resume – a 10-point victory over Gonzaga on Feb. 26 in which the Gaels became the only team in the last three seasons to hold the Bulldogs under 60 points.

This team can and will grind the game down to a halt. While UCLA utilized a similar strategy last postseason, the Bruins struggled this year when their opponents turned the game into a possession-by-possession ballgame. The blue and gold is just 6-4 when it scores 70 points or fewer and 4-6 when shooting below 40% from the field.

With junior guard Johnny Juzang still finding his rhythm offensively – shooting 38.2% in his four games back from an ankle injury – UCLA’s offense could get stagnant against the standout Saint Mary’s defense.

If that’s the case – and if Saint Mary’s can get enough offensively out of its four starters who average double figures – UCLA could be in some trouble early.

Even if the Gaels don’t win their opening-round game, the Bruins will still have to face an at-large team once they get past the Zips. No. 12 seeds Wyoming and Indiana will play in the First Four before taking on Saint Mary’s, and neither will be an easy out for UCLA.

Editor’s pick: Elite Eight loss to Kentucky

UCLA can beat both Baylor and Purdue.

Kentucky, on the other hand, poses a different challenge.

The Wildcats could be the best No. 2 seed in the entire field, with some arguing they were deserving of a top seed. Kentucky ranks fifth in the NET rankings and third in KenPom rating, boasting the fourth-most-efficient offense in the entire country.

This is arguably coach John Calipari’s best squad since Kentucky ended UCLA’s 2017 tournament run with a team featuring current NBA players De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Bam Adebayo.

First and foremost, the Wildcats are highlighted by Naismith Player of the Year finalist forward Oscar Tshiebwe. A force to be reckoned with down low, the West Virginia transfer puts up 17 points per game on over 60% shooting while accumulating nearly two blocks and two steals per contest. But those aren’t even his most impressive stats.

Tshiebwe is one of the best rebounders college basketball has ever seen, securing more than 15 boards a night and helping the Wildcats grab over 40% of the shots they miss with the forward on the court.

Put short, Tshiebwe controls the entire game on the interior – and that’s bad news for the Bruins.

There are no players close to Tshiebwe in the Pac-12, and UCLA’s center rotation of redshirt senior center Myles Johnson and redshirt senior forward Cody Riley simply won’t be able to keep up against a team so interior-focused.

UCLA will beat Akron in the first round – it’s only a matter of how much it wins by. Saint Mary’s will pose a challenge, but the blue and gold should be able to grind out a win by the end of the game.

The Bruins can even pull off an upset and beat Baylor in the Sweet 16.

But unless it gets some help from Purdue or another lower seed in the bottom half of the bracket, UCLA’s tournament run will end one game short of its second consecutive Final Four.

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Jon Christon | Sports senior staff
Christon is currently a Sports senior staff writer. He was previously the Sports editor on the men's basketball and football beats and the assistant Sports editor on the women's basketball, softball, men's tennis and women's tennis beats. Christon was previously a contributor on the women's basketball and softball beats.
Christon is currently a Sports senior staff writer. He was previously the Sports editor on the men's basketball and football beats and the assistant Sports editor on the women's basketball, softball, men's tennis and women's tennis beats. Christon was previously a contributor on the women's basketball and softball beats.
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