Scouting report: UCLA football vs. Oregon

UCLA football (5-2, 3-1 Pac-12) is back at the Rose Bowl for the first time in three weeks as it hosts No. 10 Oregon (5-1, 2-1) – its biggest challenge of the season. The Ducks’ lone loss came by way of Stanford, who the Bruins beat by double-digits. But Oregon has also beaten Fresno State, who UCLA lost to in week three. Here is this week’s scouting report from assistant Sports editor Sam Settleman – who wonders why the transitive property even exists anymore.

Oregon’s offense
Offensive scheme: Spread
Run-pass percentage: 59.7% run, 40.3% pass
Strength: Turnovers (or lack thereof)
Weakness: Conservative play-calling
X-factor: RB Travis Dye

If the Bruins’ offense looks itself in the mirror, it might see the Ducks’ offense staring right back.

As two of the top three rushing offenses in the Pac-12, UCLA and Oregon have a lot of similarities on the offensive side of the ball. While neither team runs the same high-octane, up-tempo offense that made coach Chip Kelly famous in Eugene, both teams rely heavily on their ground game.

The Ducks’ offense so far this season has revolved around a heavy dose of its dual-threat backfield mixed in with some quarterback rushing attempts – both through designed runs and options. But one-half of Oregon’s running back duo won’t be on the field Saturday, as CJ Verdell went down with a season-ending leg injury in the loss to Stanford.

With Verdell out of the picture, the biggest question on offense for the Ducks was how running back Travis Dye would handle the increased workload after splitting carries with Verdell for the better part of four years. If Oregon’s win over California on Saturday is any indication, the answer to that question is that the Ducks will be just fine.

Not only did Dye explode for the second-highest rushing total of his career with 149 yards on the ground, he also got better as the game went on. With Oregon trailing Cal by a touchdown in the fourth quarter, it was Dye who ignited the game-tying touchdown drive with a 20-yard run on the first play of the possession. On the Ducks’ ensuing drive, Dye accounted for 50 yards of total offense as Oregon marched down the field for the eventual winning score.

The running back was more than just a threat on the ground as he tacked on 73 receiving yards against the Golden Bears to lead his team and move into second among all Ducks this season.

That performance wasn’t a fluke either. Dye, despite refusing to wear gloves, can make contested catches that would be tough for any true wide receiver to make.

Dye may be the focal point of Oregon’s offense with Verdell out, but the Ducks are not without options in the running game. While there is virtually no running back depth behind Dye with three freshmen next in line, quarterback Anthony Brown has proven to be a dual-threat signal-caller with very similar capabilities to UCLA senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

With 67 carries in six games, Brown is often called upon to use his legs, including on designed quarterback runs. In a tribute to Kelly’s days at Autzen Stadium, current Oregon coach Mario Cristobal also runs a lot of read options, featuring some creative variations that include wrinkles like jet sweeps.

Oregon runs the ball on nearly 60% of its snaps, and even when it does air it out, it’s a lot of drag routes and slants underneath. However, that wasn’t the case Saturday.

Facing a Golden Bear passing defense that ranks near the bottom of the Pac-12, the Ducks let Brown throw the rock 28 times, resulting in a season-high 244 passing yards. The transfer from Boston made some impressive throws in the game, highlighted by a beautiful back-shoulder ball to move the chains on third down and a dart into a tight window to tie the game in the fourth quarter.

With Verdell sidelined and the Bruins possessing one of the worst pass defenses in the country, Cristobal might give Brown some freedom to let loose in the passing game.

If UCLA’s defense has truly turned a corner, it can make a statement Saturday. If not, it might be another long drive home from the Rose Bowl for the Bruin faithful.

Oregon’s defense
Defensive scheme: Nickel 2-4-5
Strength: Front seven
Weakness: Bending (a lot), but not breaking
X-factor: DE Kayvon Thibodeaux

Put simply, the talent on this Duck’s defense is nothing short of terrifying.

For a team that has had the top recruiting class in the Pac-12 in each of the last three years, it’s not shocking that Oregon’s defense is littered with talent all over the field.

But these aren’t just good recruits – these are all-time great recruits. This year’s defense for the Ducks features three of the school’s top five recruits of all time in defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux and inside linebackers Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe.

Luckily for the Bruins, Flowe won’t be on the field Saturday. The true freshman and former five-star recruit has been out for much of the season after racking up 14 tackles and a forced fumble in his collegiate debut against Fresno State.

However, Oregon is not without reinforcements, with a pair of five-star recruits in Thibodeaux and Sewell leading one of the most talented defensive fronts in the country.

Thibodeaux has been on and off the field with injury as well as a targeting penalty that suspended him for the first half against Cal. But when he is on the field, the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft can make as big an impact as anyone.

If he’s not drawing a double team or a holding penalty, Thibodeaux will be in the backfield wreaking havoc – sometimes it doesn’t even matter if you hold him.

Lining up behind Thibodeaux in the middle of the defense is Sewell, who can do just about anything he’s asked to do. Leading the team in total tackles and sacks from his inside linebacker position, Sewell has had the most consistent presence on defense for the Ducks.

Thibodeaux, Sewell and a bevy of other four-star talents on the Ducks’ defense could get to Thompson-Robinson early and often. UCLA’s offensive line has been average at best in pass protection this season and has had to shuffle some pieces inside in the absence of senior center Sam Marrazzo.

On the flip side, however, Saturday will give junior left tackle Sean Rhyan a chance to reassert himself as one of the top tackle prospects in the 2022 NFL Draft as he goes head-to-head with the top pass rusher in the country.

If you thought Oregon’s well of talent ran out on the defensive front, think again.

The Ducks tout a formidable secondary led by a potential day two pick in the 2022 NFL Draft in cornerback Mykael Wright. While they lost safety Bennett Williams – who racked up three interceptions in four games – for the season with a leg injury, safety Verone McKinley III and his four interceptions cover the back end of a defense that is tied for 13th in the country in forcing turnovers.

The takeaways are a large reason why Oregon ranks fourth in the Pac-12 and 42nd in the country in scoring defense with only 21 points allowed per game despite being dead last in the conference in total yards allowed per contest. The Ducks’ defense has kept its opponents off the board for the most part, but it hasn’t faced many high-quality offenses yet, and giving up 410.3 yards per game is playing with fire.

Oregon has proven to be susceptible to giving up big chunks in the passing game, particularly across the middle of the field. Look for Kelly to establish the run game early before taking some shots out of play action on first and second down and getting redshirt junior tight end Greg Dulcich involved over the middle.

Make no mistake, if any team can bring out the turnover-prone Thompson-Robinson of years past, it’s these Ducks.

That being said, there’s no evidence to suggest the Bruins’ personnel and game plan can’t tame Oregon’s talented defense and bring UCLA its biggest win in years.