Gameday predictions: UCLA vs. LSU

Jon Christon
Sports editor
Prediction: UCLA 45, LSU 38

Southeastern Conference teams are historically known as defensive-minded, grind-it-out programs.

Well, LSU is not like SEC teams of old.

In a down year in 2020, the Tigers allowed nearly 35 points per game, and all but two of their contests featured more than 50 combined points. They also ranked 124th out of 127 FBS schools in yards allowed per game, giving up nearly 500 yards of total offense to their opponents.

Even during LSU’s national title-winning 2019 season, it was associated with high-scoring results, giving up 28 or more points six times in 15 games while scoring more than 35 points in all but one of its contests.

Like the Tigers, the Bruins also have a knack for giving up a lot of points. Even with its strong performance against Hawai’i on Saturday, UCLA’s defense under defensive coordinator Jerry Azzinaro has given up 32.8 points per game.

This is all just my long-winded way of saying this will be a high-scoring game.

So who does that benefit? I’m not really sure, but I do think one stat in particular hints at a potential upset brewing in Westwood.

LSU was fairly decent in stopping the run last year, ranking 67th in the country. It struggled mightily in passing defense, however, giving up more passing yards per game than anyone in the country.

I believe enough in the Bruins’ running game to think that they should get theirs even against a stout run defense. So that leaves us with senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the passing game.

Against any other defense, I would bet against Thompson-Robinson doing enough to lead UCLA to a win. But because the Bruins are playing literally the worst passing defense in the country from a year ago, I think Thompson-Robinson will have enough wiggle room to get through this game unscathed, especially considering he had a game to shake off the offseason rust last week.

Kyle Boal
Football beat writer
Prediction: UCLA 28, LSU 24

This game comes down to Thompson-Robinson.

If the Bruins’ senior signal-caller can outperform Tiger quarterback Max Johnson, UCLA comes out on top. If he doesn’t, it could be a long night for Bruin fans at the Rose Bowl.

LSU is a far cry from the Joe Burrow-led, undefeated 2019 national champion Tigers. The team went just 5-5 a season ago, including four double-digit losses. Johnson, however, did lead his team to an upset victory over Florida late last season, throwing for three touchdowns and no turnovers en route to the victory.

Still, the Tigers were No. 94 in rush yards allowed per carry, and UCLA just torched Hawai’i on the ground. Thompson-Robinson was nowhere near perfect against the Rainbow Warriors, overthrowing easy targets and taking unnecessary risks, such as hurdling while running the football.

Top 20 in the nation a season ago in opposing quarterback interception percentage, LSU’s secondary has the ability to disrupt Thompson-Robinson and affect his play. Assuming the senior is able to play mistake-free football for the majority of the game, UCLA has shown the ability to hang with top opponents.

The Bruins have rushed for 200 or more yards in five of their last seven games. This trend will continue Saturday behind a strong offensive line presence, and Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown both break loose for big games.

I believe Thompson-Robinson got his early-season jitters out week zero and is primed for a big performance against a team making its debut. I predict UCLA commits no turnovers and the Bruins earn their first win over a ranked opponent in 678 days.

Olivia Simons
Assistant Sports editor
Prediction: UCLA 31, LSU 38

This is absolutely a gut-feeling prediction based mostly on two factors.

One – I don’t buy the idea that the Bruins’ 44-10 season-opening victory means they’ll be able to notch a win against the Tigers. Sure, the win was promising, particularly considering the margin of victory, but considering the caliber of UCLA’s opponent in Hawai’i, it didn’t inspire much hope in me for a repeat result Saturday.

Maybe it’s the pessimist in me that hasn’t adopted the notion that a more experienced team than last year will automatically lift the Bruins from a 1-6 nonconference record since the start of the 2018 season to a victory over a ranked SEC opponent.

Maybe it’s a year of watching Thompson-Robinson dance around behind the O-line, drifting backwards with the ball before demonstrating his indecision and lack of accuracy in nearly every game I watched last season, coupled with his lackluster showing against the Rainbow Warriors.

Whatever it may be, I hardly think one good game warrants confidence in UCLA.

Two – the Tigers have several statistical and strategic factors that point in their favor.

While LSU had an off year last season, it is still the No. 16-ranked team in the nation, and the odds are in its favor for Saturday’s matchup. While the betting lines don’t put the Bruins significantly below the Tigers, I feel I’d be remiss not to take into account the ranking of the team and the stats crunched to determine it will come out victorious against the blue and gold.

I’ve also heard the argument that UCLA having a game under its belt this season will serve as an advantage heading into LSU’s first contest of the year. I would reason, however, that because the Bruins have played a game, the Tigers have film to watch in order to scout their upcoming opponents, including deciphering how to stop the running back duo of Charbonnet and Brown.

The home team, on the other hand, will be without any such film, as LSU has yet to start its 2021 campaign and brought in new offensive and defensive coordinators in the offseason.

I may be wrong here, and UCLA could leave the Rose Bowl victorious with a 2-0 record for the first time since 2017. However, my gut tells me that LSU will pull out a close win Saturday, and I’m inclined to trust it.

Maddie McDonagh
Copy chief
Prediction: UCLA 38, LSU 34

Everything I know about football comes from the greatest sports film of our time – Disney’s “The Game Plan” starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson – so I think it’s safe to say I’m totally qualified to write a prediction for UCLA’s upcoming contest against LSU.

Coach Chip Kelly and Thompson-Robinson are under mounting pressure to lead UCLA to an above .500 season, and another nonconference win would solidify a promising start. Similar to the fictional Boston Rebels’ situation during their championship game, these high stakes will only enhance the Bruins’ performance Saturday.

From what I’ve heard, LSU is a formidable opponent. The Tigers are 22-4 all-time against Pac-12 opponents, and Johnson is currently considered one of the top quarterbacks in the SEC. But much like the subplot with The Rock’s daughter, these facts are irrelevant – especially if the Bruins show up like they did versus Hawai’i.

Riding the wave of a 44-10 victory over the Rainbow Warriors, the Bruins’ offense is ready to duel. Even with Thompson-Robinson’s lackluster start in the season opener, UCLA’s offensive line played a crucial role in opening up holes for Charbonnet, who scored three touchdowns on just six carries. Thompson-Robinson has a chance to course-correct, and I expect he’ll emulate Charbonnet’s main character energy to come out strong.

And if I’ve learned anything from Disney movies, it’s that the main characters always win.