Scouting Report: UCLA vs. Michigan

The Final Four is one win away, but No. 11 seed UCLA men’s basketball (21-9, 13-6 Pac-12) will have to pull off one more upset to get there. Standing in its path is No. 1 seed Michigan (23-4, 14-3 Big Ten), the most balanced and highly ranked team on its slate all season long. The Wolverines may have strung together a more successful regular season, but they have a few key similarities with the Bruins that could put them on an even playing field come Tuesday night.

Here’s Daily Bruin senior staffer Sam Connon’s in-depth breakdown of UCLA’s upcoming Elite Eight opponent.

Michigan Wolverines
BPI Ranking: 5
NET Ranking: 4
KenPom Ranking: 3
Record: 23-4 overall, 14-3 Big Ten, 13-1 home, 6-2 away, 4-1 neutral
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 118.9 points per 100 possessions, 7th in D1
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 88.7 points allowed per 100 possessions, 8th in D1
Adjusted Tempo: 66.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 247th in D1
Key Player: Center Hunter Dickinson
X-Factor: Guard Mike Smith

It isn’t too often you find a team on your schedule that boasts a top-10 offense and defense – there are only three such teams in the country.

But that’s exactly what UCLA has on its hands in the Elite Eight, a Michigan team that embodies everything a No. 1 seed does: top-tier defense, efficient offense, size down low and experienced guard play.

First things first, though. Forward Isaiah Livers is out for the tournament with a foot injury, so his 13.1 points and 6.0 rebounds per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 43.1% from deep will be missing from the lineup once again Tuesday night.

Without him, the Wolverines are still one of the most dangerous teams in the country – they made it to the Elite Eight without him, after all – since their BARTHAG Power Rating is No. 9 in the country since Livers went down.

Leading the way on the box score is Dickinson, who’s averaging a team-best 14.2 points and 7.6 rebounds per game and will be the third 7-foot big man the Bruins have matched up with in March Madness. UCLA limited BYU center Matt Haarms and Abilene Christian center Kolton Kohl to 11 points and eight points, respectively, both of which were below their season averages.

The most important thing the Bruins did to slow down those bigs was hold them to one offensive rebound apiece. Dickinson does most of his damage on entry passes into the post and second-chance baskets, so if UCLA can deny those lobs and box out strong, he may not have his best game.

Dickinson is averaging 14 points per game through three tournament appearances, but he had just one offensive rebound between the Round of 64 game versus No. 16 seed Texas Southern and Round of 32 matchup with No. 8 seed LSU – a game his team trailed for most of and only won by eight. Michigan won by a far more comfortable 18-point margin over No. 4 seed Florida State, with Dickinson tallying four offensive boards and six second-chance points in addition to two assists out of the post.

Another Wolverine who has come alive in the past two rounds is guard Chaundee Brown Jr. Michigan’s sixth man is averaging 16.5 points per game on 73.3% shooting from the field and 62.5% from long range in that span. Looking at his 6-foot-5 frame and 41.1% 3-point shooting in 20 minutes per game on the season, he is essentially the Wolverines’ answer to whatever problems junior guard David Singleton causes off the bench for the Bruins.

Getting back to the starting lineup, redshirt sophomore guard Tyger Campbell may have met his match when it comes to an undersized point guard with an elite balance of ball security and an ability to create for others. 5-foot-11 Smith’s assist-to-turnover of 2.5 on the season is slightly less than Campbell’s 2.8 mark, and Smith’s 1.9 ratio in the tournament doesn’t sniff Campbell’s 4.5 in that time.

Smith scored a season-high 18 points in the Big Ten quarterfinals, however, while also dishing out 15 assists and not turning the ball over once. His recent NCAA tournament performances haven’t reached that high bar, but it still goes to show how high his ceiling is as a floor general.

Add in guard Franz Wagner’s 12.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game from the wing and Michigan has its fair share of options on offense. Wagner’s 35.7% clip from 3 is actually the worst in the Wolverines’ regular rotation, minimum 15 attempts, and they shoot 38.3% from deep as a team.

UCLA showed Sunday it could slow down 3-point-reliant teams like Alabama, which led the country in triples taken and made all year but shot 7-of-28 from downtown in the Sweet 16. Michigan’s offense isn’t as 3-point heavy, shooting 19.6 3s attempted per game to Alabama’s 30, but limiting the Wolverines the same way they limited the Crimson Tide would do wonders for the Bruins’ chances at another upset.

Michigan plays at a relatively slow pace, much like UCLA. The Bruins were able to force an up-tempo team like the Crimson Tide into a possession-based game Sunday, but doing so wouldn’t necessarily give them as drastic of an advantage against the Wolverines.

The path to victory isn’t as clear as it has been in any of UCLA’s last four games out in Indianapolis. Against Michigan State, it was slowing down forward Aaron Henry; against BYU and Alabama, it was locking down 3-point shooters; against Abilene Christian, it was taking care of the ball.

With Michigan next up on the slate, it’s going to take a complete game for UCLA to make the Final Four for the first time in 13 years.