Scouting Report: UCLA vs. Michigan State

No. 11 seed UCLA men’s basketball (17-9, 13-6 Pac-12) just barely snuck into the NCAA tournament after losing its last four games, earning one of the last at-large bids on the board over the weekend. As a result, it will be playing No. 11 seed Michigan State (15-12, 9-11 Big Ten) in the First Four on Thursday, setting up a rematch of the 2019 Maui Jim Maui Invitational, 2018 Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational and 2011 round of 64. Both coaches – UCLA’s Mick Cronin and Michigan State’s Tom Izzo – are now in the midst of double-digit March Madness appearance streaks, but only one can advance to the main bracket.

Here’s a look at what the Bruins are going up against in Indiana from Daily Bruin senior staffer Sam Connon.

Michigan State Spartans
BPI Ranking: 68
NET Ranking: 70
Kenpom Ranking: 57
Record: 15-12 overall, 9-11 Big Ten, 12-3 Home, 3-8 Away, 0-1 Neutral
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 107.7 points per 100 possessions, 98th in D1
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 93.1 points allowed per 100 possessions, 34th in D1
Adjusted Tempo: 68.6 possessions per 40 minutes, 166th in D1
Key Player: Forward Aaron Henry
X-Factor: Forward Joey Hauser

Looking at Michigan State’s numbers – whether on the court or in the rankings – they don’t scream tournament team. The Spartans’ NET ranking of 70 is the second-worst by an at-large team in the field and third-worst by any at-large bid since the rating system was introduced at the start of the 2018-2019 season.

What pushed Michigan State over the edge, however, were late-season wins against No. 1 seed Michigan, No. 1 seed Illinois and No. 2 seed Ohio State. Even though it lost to No. 10 seed Maryland twice in the three weeks leading up to Selection Sunday, Michigan State’s three wins over those highly-seeded teams came at the perfect time.

Instrumental in pulling off those upsets was Henry, who led the Spartans with 15.3 points per game on the season. Michigan State played six games against teams seeded No. 2 or higher after Feb. 1, and Henry averaged 17.8 points per game on 50.9% shooting from the field in those games.

Simply put, Henry showed up in big games down the stretch, and that wasn’t new territory for him either.

The 6-foot-6 forward started all five of the Spartans’ March Madness games during their Final Four run in 2019 despite being a freshman. After averaging 5.4 points and 3.6 rebounds per game on 47.4% shooting in 20.4 minutes per game through the regular season and conference tournament, Henry put up 10.4 points and 5.2 rebounds in 33 minutes per game while shooting at a 58.3% clip in the NCAA tournament.

The rest of the key contributors on the roster this year weren’t a part of Michigan State’s Final Four squad from two years ago, and it shows in their numbers.

No other Spartan averages double-digit points per game this season – compared to the five active Bruins who are currently above that threshold. Michigan State’s next leading scorer is Hauser, a transfer out of Marquette, who is averaging 9.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game.

As a 6-foot-9 stretch big who has taken 3.6 3-point attempts per game this season, Hauser could pose a threat to a UCLA defense that lacks an athletic big with redshirt junior forward/center Jalen Hill still out for personal reasons. While Hauser is shooting 33.7% from deep on 98 attempts this season, he owns a 38.2% 3-point percentage for his career.

Hauser’s role in Michigan State’s offense has been steadily shrinking over the past month or so, however, as he lost his spot in the starting lineup midseason and came off the bench the last 11 games to average just 19.7 minutes per game. That means someone in the Bruins’ second unit – freshman forward Mac Etienne or freshman guard Jaylen Clark, perhaps – will be tasked with covering Hauser when sophomore guard/forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. or junior guard Jules Bernard is busy keeping Henry in check.

With Hauser fading from the lineup recently, it’s been guards Joshua Langford and Rocket Watts who have stepped up in his place. Langford scored in double figures in eight of the Spartans’ final 13 regular season contests, while Watts contributed 21 points in Michigan State’s win over Michigan on March 7.

Still, the Spartans lack a pure point guard who creates for others – Watts averaged just 2.7 assists on the year and guard Foster Loyer averaged 2.3 per game before going down with a season-ending shoulder injury in February. Michigan State relies on its players to create their own shots for the most part, whether Henry, Langford or Watts, and struggles to settle down and kick out to 3-point shooters.

The Spartans shot 30.5% from beyond the arc against Big Ten opponents, good for second-worst in the conference and far below the Bruins’ 39.0% mark, which ranked second during Pac-12 play. That doesn’t mean they don’t try, however, since Michigan State averaged 18.5 attempts from 3-point range during conference play – even more than UCLA’s 17.4 tries per game.

On the other side of the ball, the Spartans’ opponents shot 30.9% from 3 during conference play. The Bruins went 5-4 this season when they shot worse than 31% and 12-2 when they shot better than 36% from deep.

Michigan State allowed its opponents to shoot better than 36% twice in its 5-2 finish to the regular season, and it lost both of those games.

That means the key to victory for UCLA could be sophomore guard Johnny Juzang getting hot from deep, or maybe even a bench sharpshooter like sophomore guard/forward Jake Kyman or junior guard David Singleton.

If the Bruins can get one or more of those guys going and also use Jaquez, a Pac-12 All-Defensive honoree, to slow down Henry off the dribble, they could find themselves in the round of 64 for the first time since 2017.