Panel at Hammer Museum discusses possible consequences of impeachment

This post was updated Oct. 24 at 9:48 p.m.

At a Hammer Museum event Tuesday, political and legal experts said they believe the impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump could influence the results of future elections.

Jessica Levinson, a law professor at Loyola Law School, and Michael Genovese, a political science professor at Loyola Marymount University, joined moderator Shaniqua McClendon, political director for Crooked Media, to discuss the potential outcomes of the impeachment inquiry investigating Trump.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced Sept. 24 the House of Representatives would conduct a formal impeachment inquiry into the president following a whistleblower complaint filed by a White House official.

The official alleged that he heard about a phone call between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, in which Trump threatened to withhold military aid from Ukraine if it did not investigate Joe Biden.

House committees have since been subpoenaing members of the Trump administration to build a case for impeachment. The House will then vote whether to impeach Trump or not.

Levinson said there are several instances of Trump committing impeachable offenses, including obstruction of justice during former Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, but added she thinks Pelosi likely picked the whistleblower complaint to act on because it is easier for the public to understand.

“So what’s different about this phone call is one, we don’t have to wonder if it’s President Trump or someone in his orbit,” Levinson said. “It’s President Trump, he’s the one who had this conversation. … The other thing is, I think, it’s much shorter. It’s a short transcript, it’s easier for people to understand.”

House Democrats have two options to go about the impeachment, Levinson said. They can either focus on Trump’s efforts to stonewall investigations into the administration or Trump’s other impeachable offenses, she said.

She added the number of people testifying to the House right now is a good sign for House Democrats and will help them gather the most information for a successful impeachment.

Genovese said if the House decides to ignore Trump’s other impeachable offenses, it could set a harmful precedent.

“(By focusing on the phone call), you basically say to history, ‘We’re going to let all these other violations go by the wayside,’” he said. “The one they’ve got him on … it’s pretty much an open and shut case. But do you want to go after other things? Is it more important to get Trump or is it more important to set up a useful precedent for the future?”

If the House decides to impeach by a simple majority, a trial will be held in the Senate to either convict or acquit the president.

Genovese said although it appears there is little chance the Republican-controlled Senate will convict Trump, there is still time for the House to convince Republican senators before the trial.

“A lot can happen, as it did with (former President Richard) Nixon,” he said. “Republicans that turned on Nixon turned in the last week or 10 days. If they turn on President Trump, it’ll come at the end, when it is no longer in their interest to support him and it threatens their careers.”

Levinson said the political impacts of the impeachment will largely depend on the narrative House Democrats are able to tell.

“It seems to most of us in the room, we think there’s a hugely compelling story there for impeachment, but not to the whole country and not to the swing voters in the swing districts,” she said. “So the political implications will be, ‘Can you tell those voters a quick, accessible and understandable story about why this president should no longer be president?’”

Genovese said he thinks the results of the inquiry could impact the results of the 2020 election.

“If in fact they do impeach him, and he is not convicted in the Senate, (Trump) will announce that he’s been vindicated, that he’s completely innocent,” he said. “He’ll blame the Democrats. He will likely win in 2020.”

Regardless of the results, Levinson said she thinks conducting the impeachment process is important to uphold the Constitution.

“If we have something called impeachment in the Constitution, and we have impeachable offenses, then we go through that process,” she said. “This is actually a congressional obligation.”

Genovese agreed with Levinson and said he thinks Americans must separate the impeachment from partisan politics for the benefit of the country.

“This isn’t an exercise in politics, this is an exercise in civic education,” he said. “We’ve always talked, generation upon generation, about American exceptionalism. This is a test of that. Are we really going to believe in the rule of law or are we going to follow our partisan tribes? … And so I think this is an incredibly important test of who we are as a people. Sometimes we fail these tests. I think we’re going to pass this one.”

UCLA students in attendance said they learned more about the impeachment process and saw different perspectives on its effects.

Kasra Askari, a third-year molecular, cell and developmental biology student at San Diego Mesa College, said he appreciated the panelists’ push for people to break away from partisanship.

“One of the other interesting things they talked about was that the only way to have Trump indicted is if his support base changed the channel from what they were currently watching,” he said.

He added he thinks it was interesting how Republican senators turned on Nixon toward the end of the process.

“That was really interesting to know that this could still happen, because from the media, it just pretty much seems like this is gonna die in the Senate,” he said. “But you know, he painted it in a way that, you know, it’s still possible to indict him.”