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Poll finds gender gap in Obama support

Editor's note:


The Daily Bruin collaborated with the UCLA Department of Statistics to gauge the political climate on campus during the 2012 election season.

An anonymous online survey was emailed to 8,000 undergraduates through the UCLA Registrar's Office, which students could fill out between Sept. 24 and Oct. 9. The survey received 718 responses "“ a 9 percent response rate. While low, the responses matched UCLA student demographics and are an accurate indicator of the campus. The margin of error for the survey overall is 4.1 percent.

Students in the UCLA statistics course 140SL, which is about statistical consulting, analyzed the responses to the survey. This week, the Daily Bruin will be releasing articles based on these analyses. Any questions about the survey can be addressed to [email protected]

Read more from the series:

Monday: Poll finds Prop. 30 awareness low among students

By Kylie Reynolds

Oct. 31, 2012 12:48 a.m.

The original version of this article contained an error and has been changed. See the bottom of the article for additional information.

Female students at UCLA are planning to support President Barack Obama in the upcoming elections significantly more than their male counterparts ““ a gender gap in political party support reflected on the national level ““ according to a Daily Bruin/UCLA Department of Statistics survey conducted from Sept. 24 and Oct. 9.

About 63 percent of undergraduate female students said they would vote for Obama in November, while less than 50 percent of undergraduate male students said they would vote for the Democratic candidate. Both female and male students expressed low support for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney ““ a little more than 15 percent, according to the survey data.

The remaining male students surveyed said they were undecided, voting for another candidate or not voting at all.

UCLA female voter support for Obama surpasses even the highest national estimates of women voters, which range around 55 percent. Most polls have pegged the national difference between the percent of women and men voting for the Democratic incumbent at 18 percentage points ““ a gap in line with a decade-long trend that favors the Republican vote for men and the Democratic vote for women.

Erin Harris, a third-year materials science engineering student, said she plans to vote for Obama in the upcoming presidential election. She prefers Obama over Romney because she does not agree with the Republican candidate’s stances on social issues.

“I want to see gay marriage legalized and I want to see abortion stay legal,” Harris said.

This gender gap has existed in every presidential election since 1980, around the time when reproductive issues started to play a role in national political discussion and the feminist movement became more popular.

Before the 1980s, women tended to be more conservative and voted Republican, said Ellen DuBois, a UCLA history professor who studies women’s history. Fewer women voted across the board, she said.

The gender gap fluctuates over the years based on the stances of politicians on either political side, but is nevertheless a “settled fact” in American politics, DuBois said.

Since the Democratic party gained traction with women voters 35 years ago, the three presidential elections of 1996, 2000 and 2004 have seen the widest difference between male and female voters.

Some national reports have predicted this gender gap will reach all-time highs in this year’s election.

Both candidates have made pitches to women voters during this campaign season ““ Obama has continually expressed support for reproductive rights, while Romney has appealed to women’s interests in economic issues.

The candidates have not proposed changes in reproductive rights that would account for a wider gender gap this year than past years, said Thomas Schwartz, a UCLA political science professor. Instead, he said Obama has placed greater emphasis on reproductive rights this election season to deflect concerns about the economy. Republicans, on the other hand, have focused on the economy, which is considered one of the strongest platforms for the party. Romney has built his support for female voters on the idea that women ““ like men ““ care about family incomes and jobs.

But emphasizing social-related issues may help explain why Democrats are more popular with women voters, Schwartz said.

“You can find individual women who say they are voting for Romney because of their pro-life positions, but this is an artifact of a particular religious or political ideology,” DuBois said. “It does not represent a sustained tendency among American women.”

While she plans to vote for Romney in the election, Rebecca Trees, a fourth-year English student, said the Republican party’s position on the economy is the most important factor in her decision. Trees said Romney has a better business background for handling the economy and approach to bringing in jobs than Obama.

But Trees added that she could understand why women voters are more likely to vote for Obama, especially taking into account social issues like reproduction. She hasn’t taken a clear position on reproduction issues.

“I totally understand that side ““ you want your choice and don’t want the government to tell you what to do, but it’s also an ethical line,” Trees said. “I stand in the middle.”

UCLA’s gender gap, which strongly favors Obama for the female vote, is likely exaggerated by a generational gap between college-aged and older voters, DuBois said. Female student voters are influenced by both their gender and age in voting for the Democratic party.

College students tend to take more liberal stances on politics, including reproductive issues, regardless of gender. These social issues may come up more on college campuses like UCLA, Schwartz said.

At UCLA, male students tend to be more strongly in favor of Democrats than the rest of the male electorate, and are more aware of reproductive issues than their older counterparts, DuBois said.

Matthew Murkidjanian, a third-year neuroscience student, said he’s not certain if many male students his age consider reproductive issues a major political concern, but it is something that he’s taking into account.

He’s learned about the reproductive choices open to women, from birth control to abortion, through his 22-year-old sister.

“I think women should have the right to choose,” Murkidjanian said.

If he ends up voting, he plans to support Obama, because he doesn’t agree with a variety of Romney’s policies on social issues, Murkidjanian said.

The influence reproductive rights have on women voters’ political decisions is still being studied, Schwartz said. Following the campaign, he said it will be interesting to see if economic concerns trumped social issues for women voters during the current economic crisis.

Correction: Female students at UCLA are planning to support President Barack Obama in the upcoming elections significantly more than their male counterparts, according to a Daily Bruin/UCLA Department of Statistics survey.

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