UCLA will likely win Gauntlet

UCLA has earned enough points to win the Lexus Gauntlet, and can mathematically clinch winning the Lexus Gauntlet as soon as Friday.

The Lexus Gauntlet is a competition every year between UCLA and USC that awards a trophy to the athletic program which does better in head-to-head competition in 18 NCAA sports based on an agreed-upon formula.

Out of a total of 110 points, UCLA currently leads USC 57.5-22.5, with a 57.5 total needed to win the Lexus Gauntlet.

The UCLA baseball team’s sweep of USC over the weekend gave the Bruins the points needed to win. However, the sweep did not clinch the Lexus Gauntlet for UCLA, contrary to reports Monday in multiple publications.

Because of the way the Lexus Gauntlet scoring system works, it is still mathematically possible for USC to win the trophy, although it is extremely unlikely. Statistically, if each meeting left on the schedule was treated as a 50/50 chance of victory for each team, USC has less than a 1 percent chance of winning the Lexus Gauntlet.

UCLA is currently being awarded five points for winning the regular-season meetings in women’s water polo, and 2.5 points for splitting the regular-season meetings in men’s volleyball, meaning only 52.5 of the Bruins’ 57.5 points are completely secure.

UCLA won both regular season women’s water polo meetings against USC, but it is possible that the teams can meet twice more, in the conference tournament and in the NCAA Tournament.

If USC were to get two wins against UCLA in those tournaments, it would even the season series, taking away 2.5 of the five points UCLA has been awarded in women’s water polo and giving them to USC.

It is also possible that the two men’s volleyball teams could meet in their conference tournament, and a win by USC would give the Trojans all five points for men’s volleyball, since the Lexus Gauntlet scoring rules have a winner-take-all system.

Even with those scenarios, it is still highly unlikely that USC will win the Lexus Gauntlet. Not only would at least one of those unlikely scenarios have to occur, USC would have to win the head-to-head competitions of every sport left in the calendar, including men’s golf, women’s golf, women’s rowing, men’s tennis, women’s tennis, men’s track and field, and women’s track and field.

UCLA can mathematically clinch the Lexus Gauntlet Trophy as soon as Friday, if USC men’s volleyball loses its conference tournament play-in game on Wednesday and UCLA men’s tennis beats USC on Friday.

UCLA can also mathematically clinch on Saturday if either UCLA or USC men’s volleyball does not advance past the conference quarterfinals and either women’s tennis wins on Saturday or men’s tennis wins on Friday.

In both of the Friday and Saturday scenarios, UCLA would clinch by securing 55 points and the tie-breaker (all head-to-head meetings, which UCLA leads 13-7 with six to go).

After this week, the next time UCLA can mathematically clinch the Lexus Gauntlet is April 25, if UCLA finishes better than USC at the women’s golf Pac-10 Championships.