Editorial: Education deficit may tank state economy

We’ve all heard the famous statistic that if California
were a country, it would have one of the world’s top

economies.

But unless policy-makers take a hard look at the direction of
the state’s education system, in about 15 years the Golden
State may not be so golden anymore.

That’s the alarm bell being sounded by the National Center
for Public Policy and Higher Education, a nonpartisan research
center based in San Jose. A report released by the center earlier
this month found that, if current trends continue, Californians
will be making less income per capita in 2020, and that the
state’s workforce will be less educated than
today’s.

According to the study, by 2020, Latinos and Hispanics will make
up about an equal part of the workforce (38 percent) as whites (39
percent). And yet, among working-age adults, 52 percent of Latinos
and Hispanics do not have a high school credential, and only 12
percent have college degrees. Compare that to 8 percent of
working-age whites who do not have high school credentials, and the
46 percent who have college degrees.

An influx of less-educated workers doesn’t bode well for
the state’s economy, which in the past two decades has seen a
per-capita income growth of 30 percent. Unless California finds a
way to raise the education levels of its minority groups, per
capita income will likely decline 11 percent ““ from an
average of $22,728 in 2000 to $20,252 in 2020.

Other states around the country are facing similar scenarios. As
baby boomers ““ one of the most educated generations the
country has ever seen ““ near retirement, they are
increasingly being replaced by less-educated minority groups. But
the economic drop California faces is the worst in the country.

Luckily, it’s not too late to try to reverse projected
trends; it is still only 2005, after all. But the question now is
whether the state’s politicians, policy-makers and voters
have the vision to act.

Unfortunately, the release of the report was largely swamped in
the furor over California’s special election, and it
doesn’t seem to have drawn a huge response from lawmakers or
the public. In fact, timely news coverage of the report only
appeared in one major metropolitan newspaper in California, the San
Francisco Chronicle.

And aside from an obligatory statement from Superintendent Jack
O’Connell, politicians have been fairly silent about it.

What the state needs is a concerted, long-term plan to deal with
what is rapidly becoming an educational and economic crisis in
California. There is a slew of possible (or partial) solutions to
the problem: Keep higher education affordable and financial aid
well-funded; address reforms at the K-12 level; give more
consideration to race in the education system to ensure that
members of underrepresented communities are getting a strong
education.

But none of those ideas will work unless leaders emerge who can
cope with change over the long haul. Politicians are infamous for
being incapable of looking beyond their own two- or four-year
terms. However, the hole California could find itself in by 2020
doesn’t get voted into ““ or out of ““ office. And
it’ll be around for a long time unless something is done.