What’s so “˜special’ about this election?

The special election generally, and Propositions 74, 75, 76 and
77 specifically, are organically intertwined with the personality
and political future of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

His approval ratings began to plummet not long after his
landslide victory over Gray Davis in fall 2003. Arnold, as he is
referred to in his campaign, labeled beloved groups such as
teachers and firefighters “special interests” and
launched his assault accordingly, a move for which he has been
paying dearly.

Arnold’s push to pass these propositions in the nadir of
his popularity is something akin to a gamble. The special election
itself is expensive and unpopular. If Arnold’s current
unpopularity in the polls precipitates failure at the ballot box,
we’re likely to see an enfeebled governor get tossed from
office in 2006.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, Arnold will likely follow the
Jesse Ventura route, wherein independent-minded celebrities are
lifted exuberantly into the governor’s mansion, only to be
cast contemptibly aside once the novelty of fame wears off.

But if Arnold can overcome the attack ads and once again appeal
directly to the electorate to push through key ballot initiatives,
his sagging administration can amass considerable political
capital.

The California Democratic Party is indeed captive to labor
unions. Their preponderant influence certainly weighs down our
economy, benefiting a few at the expense of the many. However, many
Californians like a party that protects what they see as
workers’ rights, and they certainly prefer an overly
labor-oriented party to the old gun-toting, Proposition
13-vigilantes-on-the-Mexican-border ideologues that dominate the
California Republican Party.

Arnold came to office in spite of all these groups, bypassing
activists and special interests in the unique circumstance that was
the recall election.

Arnold’s mandate really is from the people of California
in a way that no governor’s mandate has been in some
time.

It is his attempts to emaciate entrenched interest groups by
appealing to the electorate that has brought on this election.

However, there is a question ““ a very serious and
important question ““ as to whether Arnold is really
championing genuine reform, or if he is merely using
“reform” as a banner for eroding the power base of the
Democratic Party.

Reform always creates enemies, as it involves political warfare
between old groups and new ideas.

A shamelessly partisan push to unfairly attack the base of the
Democratic Party (see Proposition 75) while leaving the Republican
base untouched is certainly going to create enemies in California.
Whatever the truth is, certainly both of these perceptions exist in
the minds of the voters.

A defeat for Arnold may truly be a victory for the special
interests he so often derides. A defeat for Arnold may instead be a
rejection of his right-leaning agenda in a left-leaning state,
reflecting a voter preference for gutting corporate power alongside
union power, for ending term limits along with gerrymandering, not
just curtailing liberal interests while leaving conservative ones
alone.

Either way, a serious defeat at the polls in the special
election signals the beginning of the end for Gov. Arnold
Schwarzenegger.

Nenni is a UCLA political science alumnus.