Future of West Bank depends on choices today

The Daily Bruin spoke with political science professor Steven
Spiegel on Tuesday to discuss the impact of Israeli withdrawal from
Gaza and parts of the West Bank.

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Daily Bruin: What is the primary benefit regarding this
unilateral disengagement?

Steven Spiegel: The advantage of disengagement for Israel is
that its security will be enhanced by not having to protect the
settlements there. The demographic problem will be alleviated, but
not resolved, because the prospect of a majority of Arabs will be
delayed for many years.

DB: Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas recently paid
tribute to the so-called “martyrs” for helping provoke
this unilateral withdrawal. Is disengagement merely capitulation to
terrorism?

SS: There is a certain unfortunate rhetoric inside the
Palestinian community that this statement reflects. You are
singling out one unfortunate quote, but there are also a great
number of positive statements he has made.

Personally, I believe the Palestinians did not gain Israeli
withdrawals with bombs, but in bed. The demographic factor (of
higher birthrate) was far more important than the violence in
convincing Israelis to withdraw. You could say it was an example of
the greater importance of sex in comparison to suicide
bombings.

DB: What implications does disengagement have on the
long-term security concerns for both Israel and the
Palestinians?

SS: It provides the Palestinians with a way of controlling their
own fate, and how they address it will have great influence on
their future ability to attain full statehood. For Israel, it will
test the efficacy of unilateral disengagement.

If Palestinian violence declines, we are likely to see more
unilateral withdrawals from the West Bank, and the prospect of
negotiations will be facilitated. If violence accelerates, Israelis
will toughen their policies toward the Palestinians, and rely for
their security more on military than political means.

DB: Will Hamas and other terrorist groups be strengthened or
weakened by the withdrawal?

SS: Egypt’s new role on the border and in advising the
Palestinians in Gaza will be critical in controlling Hamas. In the
short term, they may be credited by many Palestinians with having
gained Israeli withdrawal through terrorism, which is an
unjustified conclusion in my opinion.

However, after a couple months their future role will depend in
part on the effectiveness of the Palestinian Authority and in part
on whether Hamas chooses to act politically and to become a
conventional political party or whether it reverts to
terrorism.

DB: Does Abbas have the will and/or the power to crack down
on terrorism emanating from the disputed territories?

SS: He certainly has the will. I believe there will be a shakeup
in the security services on the Palestinian side after
disengagement. So far, the Palestinians have not done enough to
reorganize the security services under (Abbas), but the Gaza
withdrawal may become an impetus to action. However, the
Palestinian security system has improved in the last couple of
months.

DB: What are the prospects for the future of Palestinian
democracy? Yasser Arafat is dead, but many say his legacy of
authoritarianism lives on in the Palestinian Authority. Will Abbas
build a true democracy?

How would you judge a true democracy? Abbas is the only duly
elected Arab leader in the Arab world, although you could say in
Lebanon there is certainly major progress. There is no other Arab
leader that has the popular imprimatur that Abbas has.

Does this mean that they have true democracy? No. Will it mean
true democracy in the future? It depends on their ability to
control corruption, which is critical. They must reform their
security services and have judicial and other political reforms as
well. The legislative elections scheduled for late January will
also be important.

Interview conducted by columnist David Keyes. This interview
was edited for length and clarity.