Best laid plans
By Daily Bruin Staff
Feb. 23, 2005 9:00 p.m.
Sketching out Oscar predictions can be a sizable task; but
that’s never stopped anyone from trying. Just don’t get
mad if our blueprints aren’t quite for scale ““ watching
your guesses crumble on the big night is all part of the fun.
Best Cinemetography
Who will win: “The Aviator”
Who should win: “House of Flying
Daggers”
With aerial shots of a filmmaker shooting aerial shots,
“The Aviator” should be pretty much a lock for the
cinematography statue, and it doesn’t hurt that it’s
also the best movie of the five nominated. But for pure aesthetics,
“House of Flying Daggers” and its serene, natural
landscapes should win. What “Crouching Tiger, Hidden
Dragon” did for the desert, “House of Flying
Daggers” does for the forest, and the result is one of the
most appealingly shot films to come around in a while.
Unfortunately, nobody saw it because it’s foreign, and so you
can expect the Oscar to go to the most well-known film nominated
that’s not named “The Passion of the Christ.”
Best Picture
Who will win: “The Aviator”
Who should win: “Sideways”
“Sideways” should take home the Oscar for its
poignant, hilarious look at two lifelong friends who take a trip to
wine country and who learn something about life and friendship. The
film is original, novel and very funny; it is for these reasons
that the Academy will overlook it. As in previous years, the
determined underdog, no matter how deserving, will always remain
the underdog. Instead, the honor of Best Picture will go to what
Hollywood loves the most: a film about Hollywood. “The
Aviator” will win and director Martin Scorsese will finally
be recognized by the Academy for his contribution to the world of
film. This was bound to happen sooner or later ““ at least it
will be for a solid, polished effort like “The Aviator”
and not the mess that was “Gangs of New York.”
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who will win: “Sideways”
Who should win: “Sideways”
This is the sole category in which “Sideways” will
avoid the snub. The film is this year’s “Lost In
Translation”: creative, different, unconventionally funny
““ and thus doomed to fail in the major categories. The
Academy will give “Sideways” a reason to show up to the
ceremony, though, by awarding it Best Adapted Screenplay. This is
certainly a deserved honor. No other film this year has presented
such ruthlessly human characters. As with “Lost In
Translation,” the script of “Sideways” is
peppered with everything flawed, frustrating and ultimately
fascinating about the nature of relationships. Here’s hoping
that one Oscar win will help “Sideways” sell many DVDs,
so viewers don’t miss out on Miles (Paul Giamatti) dumping a
jug of spat-out wine on himself out of sheer displeasure with his
life.
Best Original Screenplay
Who will win: “The Aviator”
Who should win: “Eternal Sunshine of the
Spotless Mind”
If the Academy decided to get a little crazy this year,
“Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” would be a
shoe-in. Genius screenwriter Charlie Kaufman’s fifth feature
screenplay leaves nothing to be desired. It is witty, romantic,
unique and clearly the most dynamically told story of the year.
However, the inaccessible strangeness of certain plot elements
combined with a scattered and distorted time line might just be too
much for Oscar voters. Instead, the Academy will swing toward the
most Hollywood-accessible screenplay of the year, John
Logan’s “The Aviator.” Simply structured, yet
powerful and well-written, it is the only film on the ballot to
also receive a Best Picture nomination. Great screenplays make
great films, but Oscar-worthy screenplays become Oscar-worthy
films.
Best Animated Feature
Who will win: “The Incredibles”
Who should win: “The
Incredibles”
Our pick for Best Animated Feature is “The
Incredibles” because, well, how could a movie about pudgy,
retired superheroes not be a winner? Packed with action,
laugh-out-loud jokes and quirky, memorable characters (who could
forget the world-renowned superhero uniform designer?), watching
“The Incredibles” was one of those rare movie-going
experiences in which the entire audience is laughing and engaged
throughout the entire movie. Though “A Shark Tale” has
all the essentials of a winning Pixar movie with its all-ages
appeal and extremely cute sea creatures, it is much too reminiscent
of “Finding Nemo” to merit an Oscar. As for
“Shrek 2,” no matter how clever, sequels are always
passed over by the Academy (unless of course, they involve hobbits
and a certain ring).
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Cate Blanchett, “The
Aviator”
Who should win: No one
Portraying one of America’s most famous and most loved
movie stars of all time is no easy task. It can either come off as
unconvincing or an over-the-top exaggeration. Unfortunately, Cate
Blanchett’s performance as Katherine Hepburn in “The
Aviator” was an example of the latter. Her New England drawl
and spastic mannerisms seemed better suited for a “Saturday
Night Live” skit than a Best Picture nominee. However, she is
the critics’ darling, and an Academy Award win would also be
an homage to the recently deceased Hepburn herself. Blanchett has
been deserving of an Oscar in the past and will most likely deserve
one in the future, but not for this role. As for who should win the
statuette, none of the other actresses stood out enough for us to
make that call.
Best Actor
Who will win: Jamie Foxx, “Ray”
Who should win: Don Cheadle, “Hotel
Rwanda”
When host Chris Rock inevitably starts cracking jokes about the
need to give black people more Oscars, the Academy will only be
half-listening, and it’ll almost certainly give the award to
the more conservative of the nominated performances made by black
actors. Foxx was enjoyable in a watchable film, and that will be
plenty to win the award for two reasons: 1) he played someone with
a disability, and 2) he played a celebrity who recently died. But
the real performance of the year goes to Cheadle, who
single-handedly raised “Hotel Rwanda” from the ranks of
good movies into the lower echelon of great ones. But the political
tragedy made “Hotel Rwanda” difficult to watch, so you
can bet the Academy will go for the soft, long-winded biopic.
Best Actress
Who will win: Hilary Swank, “Million
Dollar Baby”
Who should win: Kate Winslet, “Eternal
Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”
It’s safe to place a million-dollar bet on Hilary Swank
for the Best Actress category, having nearly sealed the victory
already by earning the Golden Globe this year. Although Swank gives
a knockout performance and already has an Oscar under her belt for
“Boys Don’t Cry,” Kate Winslet’s
performance in “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”
is more deserving of a date with Oscar. Many of her fans never let
go of the fact that she didn’t win for “Titanic,”
but in “Eternal Sunshine,” Winslet finally proved to
the Academy that they couldn’t erase her from their minds.
Though Winslet will more likely be overshadowed by former co-star
Leonardo DiCaprio this year, her nomination alone begins to make up
for the Academy’s refusal to acknowledge Jim Carrey’s
existence.
Best Supporting Actor
Who will win: Morgan Freeman, “Million
Dollar Baby”
Who should win: Thomas Haden Church,
“Sideways”
The Best Supporting Actor category is a lesson in physiognomy:
One look at each actor can reveal his inner personality. Morgan
Freeman’s dark eyes and his closed-mouth smile just scream
“hidden wisdom.” And sure enough, in “Million
Dollar Baby,” he plays a janitor, who is wise beyond his
profession. Thomas Haden Church, who plays Jack, an aging actor in
“Sideways,” has that slightly sunburned face you feel
you should recognize, yet can’t quite place. Like the
audience, none of Jack’s friends seem to really know him
either. Though Church’s performance was the most intriguing,
the award will not go to a comedic actor. And Freeman’s
character is one of the best parts of “Million Dollar
Baby” in part because he gives you the feeling you are seeing
a new version of “The Shawshank Redemption.” Freeman
brilliantly narrates both films. He was nominated for Best Actor in
1995 for “Shawshank.” This time around he will be
rewarded for making the audience listen to the little guy.
Best Director
Who will win: Clint Eastwood, “Million
Dollar Baby”
Who should win: Clint Eastwood, “Million
Dollar Baby”
Since December 2001, audiences have cheered for the fantasy
world Peter Jackson recreated in the “Lord of the
Rings” trilogy. The gold statue he received last year spoke
of its worthy effect. But in December 2004, Clint Eastwood used a
boxing movie to rattle our hearts and give us something new to
cheer for. Humanity ““ not hobbits ““ was the cause of
the swell in our hearts as we left theaters shocked, horrified, yet
strangely at peace. This is a lot harder to do considering little
people with hairy feet are a bit more endearing than trailer trash.
But Eastwood draws you into the intricate plot and genuine
characters. Every scene, every character has its role to give you a
window into the human condition of love, defeat and forgiveness. By
the end of it, you’ll forget all about Aragorn. Your new hero
will be a woman too poor to buy herself a meal, but with enough
idealistic will, love and ambition to make anyone feel ashamed of
their semi-callous view of the world.
Predictions compiled and written by: Emily Camastra, Amy
Crocker, Devon Dickau, Julianne Fylstra, Nancy Halabi, Jessica
Rothenberg, Nick Rudman and Jake Tracer.
