Schwarzenegger an anomaly in Republican politics

I could start this out with an Arnold quote. Sure, it’s an
overused device, but it’s still fun and germane to the
subject. However, to do so falls into the same trap most pundits
are currently flailing around in. By emphasizing the actor portion
of this pol, Schwarzenegger becomes a light topic and serious
analysis is sacrificed. So allow me to break mold and state this up
front: There’s nothing cliché or absurd about Gov.
Arnold Schwarzenegger. He’s a new form of politician, and
he’ll remain an utterly dominant force until the rest of the
political establishment wakes up and smells the tanning lotion. Or
until he wakes up and decides he wants to be president.

Over the last decade, a handful of writers and think tanks have
been pushing something called “the radical middle,” a
theoretical majority of voters underserved or nonplussed by the
current two-party deadlock. Contrary to the stereotype of the
uninformed, vaguely aware “swing voter,” the radical
center supposedly mashes together the two parties and emerges with
a distinct perspective currently unrepresented. They’re
socially moderate, fiscally conservative and friendly toward both
the market and the government (which means they want universal
health care that the government guarantees but lets the market
run). They hate partisanship, are uncomfortable with ideologues and
tired of politics-as-usual. They are the middle, and they ““
not Democrats, not Republicans and not fans ““ form the core
of Schwarzenegger’s base. Oh, yeah. And they’re almost
powerless in national politics.

That’s the secret to his remarkable statewide success and
the reason his rise ends here. He relies on neither party for
support, and thus exists in a weird fourth-dimension of political
time-space. He can anger his party’s crucial interest groups
and reject extremist elements (along the lines of saying he’d
be “fine” with voter-approved gay marriage and has
“no use” for a constitutional amendment barring the
unions) without putting himself in danger ““ a level of
freedom unknown to other politicians. But what the hordes of
Schwarzenegger-watchers, boosters and fans miss is that
Arnold’s enviable position is rare for a reason ““ it
only exists through a freak confluence of circumstances, and
it’ll evaporate as soon as Schwarzenegger decides the Oval
Office needs an action hero.

Schwarzenegger almost ran for governor in 2002. He chickened out
because a moderate like him had no chance of surviving the
Republican primary; to win, he’d have been forced to placate
the social extremists or suffer ignominious defeat. Enter the
recall election, a two-month flurry focusing on a despised governor
and requiring no primary and thus no involvement with the
Republican base (who ended up voting for their ideological soul
mate Tom McClintock). In fact, his campaign flaunted
bipartisanship, displaying prominent Democrats along with
Schwarzenegger’s Republican supporters.

After Schwarzenegger easily stomped the hapless Lt. Gov. Cruz
Bustamante, California Republicans, rejoicing after 10 years of
irrelevance, welcomed their savior and indulged his social
moderation, environmentalism, fiscal incoherence and unwillingness
to build Republican infrastructure. What choice did they have?
Arnold’s supporters came from the middle, not the fringe
““ they were lucky he’d deigned to call himself a
Republican. Their diehards might kick and scream, but he was their
ticket back to the big kids’ table.

But Schwarzenegger’s road ends in Sacramento. Even
assuming a constitutional amendment does make it legal for
foreign-born citizens to run for president (an overdue reform, but
one unlikely to happen in a timely fashion), Schwarzenegger’s
not going anywhere. With national aims and a marquee name comes the
national press and its overriding interest in breaking the perfect
scandal. You remember the flash flood of gossip that raced out
during the recall but was choked off by the short election? A
presidential campaign takes almost two years.

Assuming the governor could survive that (a big assumption),
he’d still be toast. The national Republican Party, in stark
contrast to its Californian incarnation, is anything but weak and
superfluous, and it’s sure as hell not going to sacrifice its
evangelical base to indulge an on-screen pot-smoker, off-screen
(alleged) breast-grabber who associates with homosexuals and
publicly rhapsodizes over bikini-waxes. To be nominated by the
Republican Party, you’d damn well better win the character
debate ““ and this is certainly a shaky prospect for
Schwarzenegger.

Though desperate California Republicans were willing to overlook
the character issue in exchange for the governor’s Republican
ideology, the national Republican Party will not do the same
““ not even for a face as pretty as Schwarzenegger’s.
Don’t believe me? Just ask the last action hero with
overwhelming national appeal who ran for president as a Republican.
I’m sure John McCain would be happy to tell you all about
it.

Klein is a third-year political science student.