W. soccer: Soccer’s No. 4 seed unexpected

After the UCLA women’s soccer team’s overtime
victory over Oregon last Sunday, coach Jill Ellis said she would be
“shocked” if her team didn’t receive the No. 2
seed for the NCAA Tournament.

Well … surprise.

In the tournament bracket released Monday, the Bruins received
the No. 4 seed, despite being ranked No. 2 in both the NSCAA/adidas
and Soccer America polls. They will face San Diego on Friday at
Drake Stadium in the first round.

“The minute you start thinking you deserve something is
the minute you don’t get it,” Ellis said.

All signs seemed to indicate an inevitable No. 2 seed for UCLA
(16-1-3, 8-0-1 Pac-10). The undefeated conference record. The
polls. The fact that the team is playing its best soccer of the
season right now and its only loss came to undefeated and consensus
No. 1 North Carolina way back on Sept. 19.

But it didn’t happen. As expected, North Carolina received
the No. 1 seed, while Notre Dame and Florida, ranked behind UCLA in
the polls, jumped the Bruins to secure the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds,
respectively.

“It was surprising (to be seeded No. 4),” senior
midfielder Sarah-Gayle Swanson said. “Our record shows better
than the teams seeded ahead of us.”

Notre Dame (19-2-1) has lost two of its last three matches,
while Florida (16-3-2) has lost two more matches than the Bruins.
The Gators are ranked No. 8 in the NSCAA/adidas poll.

“There’s all kinds of formulas out there,”
Ellis said. “I think RPI obviously comes into
play.”

RPI, or ratings percentage index, is a way of measuring the
strength of a team’s schedule. This could be the possible
explanation for UCLA’s No. 4 seeding.

“To be honest, the Pac-10 has had a little bit of a down
year,” Ellis said. “This year, the way things have
played out, maybe our RPI doesn’t stack up as high because
teams that are usually in the top 10 haven’t been up there
this year.”

During the season, UCLA played only four teams that finished the
year in the top 25, losing to North Carolina, tying No. 3 Santa
Clara, and beating No. 18 Duke and No. 22 Arizona State.

It is also possible that draws against UCSB and Stanford hurt
the Bruins’ seeding.

“I think they might look at the ties we’ve had,
which wasn’t good on our part,” Swanson said.

Another possible explanation is the dreaded “East Coast
Bias.”

“The seeding is determined by a committee, and I’d
say that probably 80 percent of that committee is from the East
Coast,” Ellis said. “On the West Coast, it always seems
that the top seed has to play a tougher first game than the top
seeds in other regions.”

Ellis also pointed out that a large portion of the quality
soccer in this country is played on the West Coast, and because the
committee regionalizes the tournament (putting teams from the same
region in the same part of the bracket), the west bracket usually
ends up being unfairly skewed.

Take the matches that will be played at Santa Clara, for
example. Santa Clara, ranked No. 3, received the No. 9 seed and has
to face regional foe Stanford in the first round. In the other
match at Santa Clara, Arizona State plays a tough Cal Poly team
that has lost only once all season.

The team that emerges from that regional will likely have to
face defending national champion Portland, seeded No. 8 in the
tournament despite being ranked No. 5 in the poll.

“How can you put Santa Clara, Stanford, Cal Poly and
Portland in the same bracket?” Ellis asked.
“You’ve got all of the top teams on the west coast in
one bracket. That’s the group of death.”

Bracketology aside, the Bruins realize that what’s done is
done.

“Like I said to the players before the draw came out, we
just have to take care of our own business,” Ellis said.
“If we’re playing as well as we can play, we’re a
tough team to beat.”

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If UCLA wins Friday, the team will face the winner of
Pepperdine-USC on Sunday at Drake Stadium.

As the No. 4 seed, the Bruins will host the first four rounds of
the tournament if they continue to win. The Final Four will be held
in Cary, North Carolina.