Race for the Gold

Best Picture

will win: Chicago

should win: The Hours

The race is essentially between “Chicago” and
“The Hours.” Though “The Hours” is full of
great performances and simmering emotion, “Chicago”
looks a lot more like what a best picture should be: a box office
success, full of applause-worthy great performances, and it’s
a respectable period piece hailing from a time-honored Broadway
musical.

Best Director

will win: Martin Scorsese

should win: Rob Marshall

Scorsese does not really deserve an award for the messy
“Gangs of New York,” but he’ll probably get it,
because he’s done too many other films that merited honor
(“Taxi Driver,” “Raging Bull,”
“Goodfellas,” “Mean Streets”). Marshall is
a newcomer, and “Chicago” is his first feature film.
Marshall obviously knows how to make a movie musical, but the
Academy often gives belated awards at the expense of those who
actually deserve them. While Marshall won the Director’s
Guild award and they’re almost never wrong, Scorsese deserves
an award for posterity, especially before his movies get worse.

Best Actress

will win: (tie) Renee Zellweger and Nicole Kidman

should win: Julianne Moore

Up until recently, Kidman was the no-contest winner. But the
heavy campaign for “Chicago” has allowed Zellweger to
take the lead (she won the Screen Actor’s Guild award). Both
were great performances, but Moore’s turn as a tortured
housewife remains a powerful underdog. Moore is one of the most
talented actresses of her generation, and she should at least win
one of her two nominations, the other being supporting actress for
“The Hours.”

Best Actor

will win: Daniel Day-Lewis

should win: Jack Nicholson

Lewis completely transformed into Bill the Butcher for a wild
performance that should earn him his second best actor award (he
also won for “My Left Foot”). But Nicholson’s
against-type performance as a retired loser in “About
Schmidt” was poignant and comical at once. He’s already
been honored by the Academy several times, and this subdued turn
won’t please voters as much as Lewis’ flamboyance.

Best Supporting Actress

will win: Catherine Zeta-Jones

should win: Meryl Streep

Zeta-Jones certainly proved that she could do it all by herself:
acting, dancing and singing. “Chicago” also seems
perched to make a sweep, which means she will benefit from all the
hoopla. Her character, however, is much like every other haughty,
diva-esque character Zeta-Jones has played before. Streep’s
turn as a buttoned-up author who embarks on a drug-induced odyssey
in “Adaptation” was both funny and poignant, but may
have been far too nuanced for the Academy to take notice.

Best Supporting Actor

will win: Christopher Walken

should win: (tie) John C. Reilly, Chris
Cooper

Walken has been walking away with some awards, including the
British Academy’s and the Screen Actor’s Guild’s,
and his performance was good. But John C. Reilly has been in too
many good movies, and he’s been good in all of them.
He’s in three of this year’s best picture nominees
alone. Meanwhile Chris Cooper, who has mostly played
straight-laced, disciplined characters, opened up in
“Adaptation” for his portrayal of a self-important but
goofy hobbyist. He stole his scenes and proved his typecasters
wrong. Both Cooper and Reilly are getting their first nominations,
and veteran Walken is set to make them pay their dues.

Best Original Screenplay

will win: "My Big Fat Greek Wedding"

should win: "Y Tu Mama Tambien"

The Academy likes actors who write screenplays (see Emma
Thompson’s “Sense and Sensibility” and Ben
Affleck/Matt Damon’s “Good Will Hunting”). Nia
Vardalos’ film also benefits from its huge box office take
and now its TV incarnation. It’s too bad that every other
film nominated is more worthy of the award. Brothers Alfonso and
Carlos Cuaron’s road trip movie has a fresh relevancy for a
new generation with its sharp wit, honest sexuality and courageous
politics.

Best Adapted Screenplay

will win: "Chicago"

should win: (tie) "Adaptation" and "The
Hours"

Bill Condon’s concept of creating a stage/real duality in
“Chicago” worked wonders for adapting the musical to
film. But Charlie Kaufman’s “Adaptation” is
undoubtedly hipper and more original, making the ultimate statement
in self-referential, ironic filmmaking. David Hare’s
“The Hours” similarly took a very unfilmable book and
transformed it into a moving portrait of women that was as lucidly
comprehensible as it was complex.