Bonds or Sosa? Go for Sammy, the consistent power hitter
By Daily Bruin Staff
March 17, 2003 9:00 p.m.
The fantasy sports guru was in a league last year with a guy who
drafted Paul LoDuca in the first round, finished dead-last in the
league, and had a team that was statistically worse off than the
Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
I invited him back to my league this year.
Slated to pick fifth, this poor soul had learned from last
year’s mistakes and was debating whether to take Barry Bonds
or Sammy Sosa; Soriano, Guerrero, and Randy Johnson were already
gone.
It’s an interesting debate; here are the stats for each
from 2002:
Bonds:
R H HR RBI AVG. OPS
117 149 46 110 .370 1.381
Sosa:
R H HR RBI AVG. OPS
122 160 49 108 .288 .993
He drafted Bonds, the better pure hitter. Bonds won’t hit
.370 again, but his batting average and OPS will probably be higher
than Sosa’s.
However, this guru is going out on a limb and calling Sosa the
better pick.
Over the last five years, Sosa has been the most consistent
power hitter in baseball, averaging 58 home runs a year, and power
has become the most prized quantity in any league.
Bonds, aside from his 73 home run aberration two years ago, has
been better at hitting for average than for power in his career.
Don’t expect Bonds to top 50 home runs.
You used to be able to pick up a legitimate power hitter in the
later rounds; remember when there would be about 10 guys like Dean
Palmer who would hit 35 home runs and get maybe 30 other hits all
year?
Those days are gone.
As home runs have gone down, the quality of pitching has gotten
better. There will be a 15-game winner sleeping somewhere in the
sixth or seventh round of your draft, but not too many 30-home run
hitters.
This is heightened further by MLB’s steroids ban.
It’s unclear how much of an impact this will have but
don’t expect small-guys-gone-big (Bret Boone, I’m
looking at you here) to top 40 home runs anytime soon.
On the other hand, five guys won 20 games last year. One of them
was Derek Lowe (previous career record: 20-32).
The moral of this story? If you have a draft on the horizon,
draft for power.
