Pac-10 tournament seeds clear as mud

You have to hand it to those Pac-10 schedule makers.

Though they probably never imagined it would end up this way,
the three teams competing for the final two slots in the conference
tournament will be in Los Angeles this weekend for a sub-.500
extravaganza, a survival of the unfittest.

USC (5-11) and UCLA (4-12) host 4-12 Washington and 2-14
Washington State in four games that promise to decide who will end
up with the No. 7 seed and face either Stanford or Cal, who will be
cannon fodder for Arizona as the No. 8 seed and who won’t
even make the trip to Staples Center March 13.

The Pac-10 uses head-to-head records as first tiebreaker, but if
the teams split during the regular season, the conference looks at
both teams’ records against the top team in the conference,
then the second-place team, and so on until one team has an
edge.

Arizona swept all three of the teams in consideration, so the
second tiebreaker will hinge on the Stanford-Cal game, the winner
of which will finish in second place.

USC holds the tiebreaker over UCLA by virtue of the
Trojans’ season sweep. But beyond that, every other
UCLA-related tiebreaker will be decided this weekend.

The Bruins can do one of four things this weekend, and if a
series of events less likely than the alignment of our solar
system’s planets occurs, they can end up seeded as high as
sixth. But UCLA can assure a spot by beating Washington.

Scenario 1: UCLA loses both games.

Bruins are out.

Scenario 2: UCLA beats Washington, loses to Washington
State.

The Bruins are in and have the No. 8 seed.

Scenario 3: UCLA beats Washington State, loses to
Washington.

If Washington loses to USC, UCLA will be tied with Washington at
5-13 and will be the eighth seed if Cal beats Stanford. Cal and
Stanford are currently tied, so the winner of their game Saturday
at Stanford will end up in second place. UCLA beat Cal, but
Washington beat Stanford, so the Bruins win the second tiebreaker
(record against Pac-10’s top teams) if the Bears win and end
up No. 2 in the conference.

Scenario 4: UCLA wins both games.

The Bruins are in, but things get a little more complicated:

If either Oregon State (6-10) or USC (5-11) loses both games,
UCLA is the No. 7 seed. The Bruins would have six wins and be tied
with OSU, but they hold the tiebreaker over the Beavers. They would
be one game ahead of USC.

Oregon State is far more likely to suffer than sweep. The
Beavers must play at Arizona and Arizona State, while USC has home
games against ninth-place Washington and tenth-place Washington
State.

If both Oregon State and USC lose both games, UCLA is the No. 6
seed.

If none of the above things happen (i.e. Oregon State and USC
both win a single game, or OSU and USC both sweep, or OSU sweeps
and USC wins one game, or OSU wins one game and USC sweeps), the
Bruins are in with the No. 8 seed.

Clear as mud? OK, good.

Avoiding Arizona, a team that beat UCLA by a combined 71 points
in two games, is the highest priority for the Bruins. If they get
the No. 7 seed, they’ll play either Stanford ““ who the
Bruins were a layup away from beating earlier this year ““ or
Cal, a team they beat Feb. 20.

The most reasonable way for the Bruins to get to the No. 7 seed
is by sweeping this weekend and seeing Oregon State swept in
Arizona.