By 2010, state to see boom in Latino grads

Because the UC expects to see an influx of 50,000 students in
the next eight years, the state is predicting that by the end of
that period, almost as many Latinos will be graduating from
California’s high schools as Asians and whites combined.

The demographics of the enrollment surge portend possible
changes in admissions, outreach and construction plans though UC
administrators are reluctant to speculate about details.

Still, the numbers are clear:

“¢bull; By 2010, the number of Latino graduates is predicted to
grow by 10 percent while the number of white graduates is projected
to shrink by the same number.

“¢bull; The Central Valley will experience the most growth in
population with many counties increasing up to 10 percent.

“¢bull; In the past five years, the number of admitted
Latino/Chicano students has hovered around 15 percent of the
systemwide total while accepted white students average about 40
percent.

The future impact on admissions policy is dubious. By law the UC
is bound to accept the top 12.5 percent of California’s high
school graduates, and there is no stipulation that this number must
represent proportionately the state’s ethnic population.

However, if current trends persist, the gap between white and
Latino participation in higher education will widen ““ a
possibility that has drawn concern from the body that governs the
university’s operations.

In September, Regent Alfredo Terrazas said the UC Board of
Regents needs to make sure it has a way to “provide
educational opportunities” before students get to
college.

“Accessibility, to me, is equally important (as
quality),” Terrazas said.

Student Regent Dexter Ligot-Gordon has also expressed commitment
to outreach, calling it “core to the university.”

Underrepresented students are graduating from the UC at an
increasing rate ““ in defiance of a recent study by the
American Council on Education that suggested that the graduation
rate of underrepresented students is relatively low
nation-wide.

Administrators are hesitant to guess how demographics will
affect future admissions.

“History has shown that the more people who apply from any
group, the more are admitted,” said Keith Stolzenbach, chair
of the Undergraduate Admissions and Relations with Schools
committee, which manages UCLA admissions.

“The admit rate for all groups goes down steadily as the
tidal wave goes up,” he said.

In addition to determining what the freshman class of 2010 will
look like, demographics may also determine the location of an 11th
UC campus.

The location of another campus ““ the construction of which
has clear support among regents ““ could be built where the
demand is highest.

Plans for a UC Fresno were scrapped in favor of UC Merced, which
will open in 2004. However, with an increase in college-age
students in the valley, officials aren’t ruling Fresno out as
a possible future site.

Many regents, including Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, suggest
construction is inevitable though UC officials say they have no
official plans.

UC Merced, the UC’s 10th campus, will accommodate 1,000
students when it opens in 2004, and is expected to hold 5,000 by
2010.

With reports from Andrew Edwards and Noah Grand, Daily Bruin
Staff