UCLA falls to 9th in BCS; title hopes take a hit

By Joshua Mason
Daily Bruin Staff

All’s quiet on the western front.

In a span of two weeks, the darling college football teams of
the West Coast took a nosedive in the official Bowl Championship
Series standings after all the undefeated teams were wiped out in
successive order.

First came the cinderella Fresno State Bulldogs, who fell to a
little-regarded Boise State team. Then came Oregon’s loss to
Stanford, followed by back-to-back UCLA and Washington State losses
this past weekend.

For most Pac-10 teams, the new national championship situation
appears grim.

“That’s what’s sad about the BCS,” said
UCLA head coach Bob Toledo, whose Bruins fell from being in-control
of their own destiny to ninth in the official standings, where they
must rely on other teams to lose to have a chance at the
championship game. “You lose one game and everyone thinks you
stink.”

Of course, as those involved with the BCS are well aware,
nothing is certain in the standings, which factor in the Associated
Press and Coaches’ polls, strength of schedule, losses and a
computer component.

“In my experience, this is a very close list, with the
exception of the undefeateds and Oklahoma,” said David
Rothman, a statistician who operates one of the computer component
indexes that help determine BCS ranking. “There’s an
excellent chance that somebody from the Pac-10 will finish No. 2
when all is said and done.”

If the Bruins were to win the rest of their schedule (no small
feat in the closely-matched Pac-10), there remains a realistic
chance for them to reach the Rose Bowl despite reports to the
otherwise.

In fact, if the Bruins were to finish the regular season with a
10-1 record, it seems difficult to imagine them not garnering a BCS
bowl invite of some kind.

Despite a ninth-ranking in the standings, there is a difference
of only 4.58 points between UCLA and fifth-ranked Texas, a minor
number considering the Bruins’ strength of schedule will
improve significantly in the next few weeks, as well as the
likelihood the Bruins will rise in the polls with every successive
victory.

A midseason loss won’t be as heavily regarded five weeks
from now, and potential victories over talented Washington State
and Oregon teams could propel the Bruins into the thick of things
once again.

There are only three teams remaining with undefeated records,
and only two are likely to be considered by the BCS (BYU’s
soft schedule has critics doubting their ability to end up with a
top six finish and earn an invite to a bowl).

Undefeated Miami still plays three tough opponents (Syracuse,
Virginia Tech and Washington), and could potentially lose to any
one of them. Furthermore, a Nebraska-Oklahoma rematch seems likely
in the Big 12 championship game, and an Oklahoma loss would
probably knock the Sooners from any BCS consideration. Of course, a
Nebraska loss could translate into a third Nebraska-Oklahoma
matchup in the Rose Bowl. An outcome that would turn the entire BCS
system upside-down.

If UCLA wins out and doesn’t win the Pac-10, because of
their loss to Stanford, or finish one or two in the final regular
season BCS standings, they could lay claim to an at-large BCS berth
(be it the Fiesta, Sugar, or Orange Bowl).

Here’s how the situation breaks down in each of the major
conferences:

“¢bull; Pac-10: If UCLA wins out, there still isn’t a
guarantee that they win the conference, because one-loss Stanford
holds the tie-breaker advantage should they also win out. Of
course, both teams accomplishing this feat would mean that one-loss
Washington, Washington State and Oregon teams would all lose again,
eliminating their chances to garner a BCS invite. Washington could
also win out simultaneously with UCLA, but that would mean they
would first have to knock off Stanford and Miami. UCLA would
nonetheless win the conference title, and at the very least, a
definite trip to the Fiesta Bowl (where the Pac-10 champ is headed
regardless of record). Thus, if UCLA were to win the remainder of
their schedule, only two Pac-10 teams could possibly finish with
one loss.

“¢bull; SEC: The SEC will only have one BCS invite when all is
said and done (the SEC champion), because one-loss Tennessee still
plays one-loss Florida, and the winner of the East will still play
the winner of the West (meaning that only one SEC team, if that,
will be able to escape the season with one loss).

“¢bull; ACC: Here, too, there will be only one team going to a
BCS bowl (their champ), because there really isn’t a
powerhouse in the conference this season (FSU already has two
losses and Maryland with a loss now has very minute national
championship chances).

“¢bull; Big 10: The Big 10 will send one team as well. Michigan
is the only team with national championship hopes, but a Michigan
trip to the Rose Bowl would not translate into another Big 10 BCS
invite.

“¢bull; Big East: One team will go, Miami or Virginia Tech,
whichever wins on December 1. If Virginia Tech beats Miami and both
have two losses, count Miami out, because of a weak strength of
schedule.

“¢bull; Big 12: Perhaps the most complicated conference outside
the Pac 10 is the Big 12, which could conceivably front three
candidates in Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas. Texas seems the most
likely to win out and finish 10-1. Oklahoma and Nebraska will
likely meet again in the Big 12 championship game, where another
Nebraska victory would probably destroy any Oklahoma chances. A
Sooner win might leave three teams in the conference with one-loss,
leaving one team out because the BCS stipulates only a maximum of
two teams per conference can be invited to a BCS bowl game.

Hypothetically eliminating BYU from the mix, that leaves a
champion team from the four conferences (SEC, ACC, Big 10, and Big
East), and a possibility of three candidates from the Big 12 and
two from the Pac-10 (assuming UCLA wins the rest of their schedule)
to fill eight BCS spots.

“You just can’t be concerned with the BCS,”
UCLA strong safety Marques Anderson concludes. “The only
thing we can control is winning games. We win these next four and
anything could happen.”