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Best Picture Will win:
“Gladiator”
Should win: “Traffic” Fifty
years ago, “Gladiator” would have surely taken home the
Academy Award for Best Picture. Sadly, it will most likely do so
this year too, despite a new surge of compelling and unique films,
most notably Steven Soderbergh’s exemplary film
“Traffic.” But “Traffic” will not win; the
Academy favors films with sweeping and uplifting moral messages, of
which “Traffic” is lacking and with which
“Gladiator” is surely overflowing.
“Traffic” deals with a threat stronger than the
tyrannies of some Roman emperor because it deals with relevant and
contemporary dangers that face American society. While grandiose
and spectacular, “Gladiator” offers nothing that film
audiences have not already seen, except for some fancy
computer-generated animation. “Traffic” is not about
recreated coliseums or imaginary fights with lions. It is about the
youth of America being destroyed in the streets of the
self-proclaimed most advanced nation in the world.
“Gladiator” marks the regressive return to classic
Hollywood cinema that should be avoided, while
“Traffic” should be applauded because it is a film that
represents the aggressive direction in which American film should
be heading.

David Holmberg

Best Actor Will win: Tom
Hanks, “Cast Away”
Should win: Ed Harris,
“Pollock” He’s a whiny, crying genius
who drowns himself in alcohol and finds breaths of sober comfort by
painting. Jackson Pollock was depressed and miserable, and made all
those around him equally depressed and miserable. Ed Harris,
playing the title character in “Pollock,” walks a
precarious edge: too much screeching monotone or manic tantrums and
he would alienate the audience. Yet Harris manages to make Pollock
as loud and obnoxious as ever while still tragically empathetic
““ a difficult feat. It seems doubtful, however, that Harris
will go home with the award. The race probably boils down to Tom
Hanks, an Academy favorite, and Russell Crowe, riding the
toga-tails of “Gladiator.” Both Crowe and Hanks have
the Dreamworks machine on which to lean, and, while
“Gladiator” has been heavily promoted, Hanks’
performance in “Cast Away” has been more heavily
praised. Ultimately, it looks as if the Academy’s golden boy
will go home with its golden award, whereas Crowe will go home
without the Oscar or Meg. But at least he’s got the
cows.

Ryan Joe

Best Actress Will win: Julia
Roberts, “Erin Brockovich”
Should win: Ellen Burstyn, “Requiem for a
Dream” In the sad tradition of the Academy Awards,
big and glamorous studio pictures often win out over more deserving
smaller and edgier productions. Unfortunately, this year’s
Best Actress race will be no exception. Ellen Burstyn’s role
in the emotionally draining and visually riveting “Requiem
for a Dream” is the most intense of any character seen last
year. Every expression and movement she makes tells the viewer of
the powerful demons of drug addiction and depression she is
battling throughout the story. Unfortunately, not many people would
know that. The film about three people addicted to heroine and one
(Burstyn) to pills, is difficult to watch and not intended for the
same audience as, say, “Erin Brockovich.” With Academy
voters tending to be an older and more conservative group, it is
likely that Julia Roberts will win for the more accessible
crowd-pleaser. Roberts is a popular actress, and there is little
reason to believe that the Academy will deprive her of the Oscar,
especially considering that they have denied her twice before. The
only hope left for Burstyn is the legacy of Hilary Swank’s
win last year for “Boys Don’t Cry.” Against all
odds, the Academy redeemed itself by selecting Swank over Annette
Bening (“American Beauty”). Hopefully, in the same
spirit, voters will be willing to watch what is quite possibly the
most challenging film of 2000 long enough to recognize
Burstyn’s genius.

Mary Williams

Best Director Will win: Steven
Soderbergh, “Traffic”
Should win: Steven Soderbergh, “Erin
Brockovich” One of the big questions come Oscar
night is whether Steven Soderbergh will sit next to Julia Roberts
(“Erin Brockovich”) or Catherine Zeta-Jones
(“Traffic”). Not since 1939 has a director managed to
snag two nominations. Academy members seeing double, however, may
be the Achilles’ heel in Soderbergh’s chances. Between
“Erin Brockovich,” with its subtle social message, and
“Traffic,” a cross-section of people affected by drug
trafficking, the decision may be hard for voters. As a result,
Soderbergh may split his own vote. Still, “Traffic” has
stirred the most buzz this year for the gripping and stylistic
direction of the film’s divergent story lines. British
director Stephen Daldry garnered critical raves for his heartfelt
spin on “Billy Elliot” and is credited with boosting
the endearing performance by the film’s young lead, Jamie
Bell. Still, the Academy is likely to see the nomination as reward
enough. Meanwhile, Ridley Scott wowed audiences with sleek
computer-generated imagery around his Roman epic. He also managed
to keep the film one cut above the regular summer popcorn fare.
But, “Gladiator” doesn’t have quite the emotional
punch of a hero-turned-martyr story like “Braveheart.”
What Scott did for Rome, Ang Lee doubled for ancient China. Besides
being an intense and incredibly choreographed fight flick,
“Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” also evoked pathos in
the moments between the action through its headstrong warrior
women. Lee, who directed “Sense and Sensibility” in
1995, knows how to tug at the heartstrings. It certainly would not
be a surprise to see him step up to the podium come Oscar night.
But ultimately, the night will belong to Soderbergh.

Terry Tang

Best Supporting Actor Will
win: Benicio Del Toro,
“Traffic”Should win: Benicio
Del Toro, “Traffic” In a widely varied
category, the Academy is offering both the offbeat and the
stalwarts, making for an interesting debate on who’ll win
out. On one end, there are traditionalists like Jeff Bridges and
Albert Finney, best known to audiences as Tucker, the eccentric car
maker, and Daddy Warbucks in “Annie.” On the other end,
there are Willem Dafoe, playing a truly creepy Nosferatu in
“Shadow of the Vampire,” and Benicio Del Toro,
remembered as that-guy-who-can’t-speak-a-coherent-sentence in
“The Usual Suspects.” The presumptive favorite seems to
be Del Toro, who has knocked the socks off critics and viewers
alike for his role as a small cog in the anti-drug machine
portrayed in “Traffic.” Though actors like him are
generally passed over in favor of more mainstream fare, the massive
swell of support he’s shown in the public forum could bode
well for Mr. D. T. If the Academy is feeling adventuresome, this
brooding talent could soon be dusting off the mantle for an Oscar.
The strangest nomination in this pack is Joaquin Phoenix, tapped
for honors for his portrayal of the titanically lame Commodus in
“Gladiator.” While Phoenix had his moments, they were
hardly award-worthy, and he seems a definite long shot. If all is
fair, he’ll come back around some other year and let Del Toro
bask in his own glory this year.

Brent Hopkins

Best Supporting Actress Will
win: Frances McDormand, “Almost
Famous”
Should win: Marcia Gay Harden,
“Pollock” No one can deny the hilarious and
heartfelt performance of Frances McDormand in “Almost
Famous.” The Oscar winner (“Fargo”) gracefully
finds her niche among rock stars and groupies as Elaine Miller,
mother of an aspiring rock journalist. The Academy, however, should
not overlook first-time nominee Marcia Gay Harden for her
relentless achievement in “Pollock.” In the film, she
resurrects artist Lee Krasner, wife of the alcoholic painter
Jackson Pollock. While portraying an artist who puts her own career
on hold to salvage her tormented marriage, Harden not only calls
upon the history that drives the film, but also the human spirit
that spurs Krasner’s individual story. Though Krasner is
often remembered as the woman behind Pollock, Harden holds her own
as an actress even without the support of the Academy.

Emilia Hwang