Predictions bring joy to UCLA, tears to everyone else

Monday, September 28, 1998

Predictions bring joy to UCLA, tears to everyone else

COMMENTARY: Best case scenario projects Bruins as NCAA
champions

Hello readers. If you are like me, you are incredibly relieved.
No more emotionally empty Saturday Mornings. An intense, burning
desire to book plane tickets and hotel reservations for the first
week of January in Tempe, Ariz. Daily updates on the top 10
contenders for the Heisman Trophy (and no, it doesn’t go Cade,
Cade, Cade …) Great perturbation at the mention that Southern Cal
might have a good team this year. And Kirk Herbstreet every
Saturday morning! College Football season is finally here.

To help out all you people who do not see the value of watching
the football team practice every day of summer break, I will give
you a preview, in alphabetical order (with the exception of
Southern Cal and UCLA) of how I think our beloved Pac-10 conference
will end up.

Arizona: A team with loads and loads of potential. A lot of
young athletic talent. Last year’s offensive coordinator Homer
Smith, who is almost as creative as our own coach Bob Toledo, is
gone. That means the offense may be a little less intricate, but it
will probably still be able to score in the neighborhood of 28
points a game.

Quarterback Ortege Jenkins will give defensive linemen fits by
showing what I like to call "pocket ignorance." If Jenkins knows
where the pocket is, he sure fooled me. Look for wide receiver and
kick returner Dennis Northcut to be a big play man. He averaged 23
yards per kick return, became the first Wildcat to score a
touchdown on offense and defense in the same season in over 20
years and is the leading scorer from last year’s strong team. Head
coach Dick Tomey is chalked full of experience and will probably
have his squad in third place at the end of the season.

Arizona State: At the start of the season, the Sun Devils were
all about the present. They thought, along with many others, that
this was to be their year. A less-then-stellar performance to start
the season has made the Sun Devils re-assess their January plans,
and two early season losses have knocked down their Mythical
National Championship hopes.

In the first game Brock Huard showed why he is the second-best
quarterback in the country, and in the second week BYU unleashed a
weapon that Provo had never seen before: a running game. A good
season, however, is still theirs for the taking, Their offense is
nothing less then potent. Quarterback Ryan Kealy is experienced and
talented and is definitely in the upper echelon of college
quarterbacks. JR Redmond is the all-purpose yardage man. He gets it
done through the air, on the ground, on returns, from the tailback
position, from the wide receiver spot, heck, I’d bet he would swim
for the yardage if he could.

Senior Lenzie Jackson is the game-breaker that will really make
the offense dangerous. ASU’s main strength, however, is its stingy
defense. Despite the departure to the NFL of pit-bull linebacker
Pat Tillman, the deep and strong Arizona State defense will be
devilishly tough to crack. Coach Snyder’s squad will probably be
the happiest fourth place team in the country. Fourth place in the
Pac-10 means a Christmas trip to Hawaii for the Aloha Bowl!

Cal: Nothing personal guys, but once again, this is not your
year in football. Good news: the Bears will win 133 percent as many
games as they did last year. Bad news: that amounts to a total of
four wins this season. Bay Area fans will still like Holmoe after
he loses his job at the end of the season because he has three
Super Bowl rings with the 49ers and is a longtime associate of Bill
Walsh. I would be surprised if the Bears finish higher then eighth,
and they are in serious danger of being the second worst team in
the conference.

Oregon: Oregon looks to continue their solid finish from last
season with an equally strong ’98 season. During the 41-13
pummeling they administered to Air Force at last year’s Las Vegas
Bowl, they showed a glimpse of what their team goals for this
season are: explosive outside plays, speed at the running back spot
and an extremely aggressive defense.

Peter Sirmon will be a Dick Butkus-type animal at the inside
linebacker spot. He won the Pac-10 defensive player of the week on
more then one occasion for good reason last season. Look for him to
be a finalist for the Butkus Award at the end of the season.

And UCLA fans looking for a "duck" need look no further then
freshman running back Herman Ho-Ching. Ho-Ching, a heavily
recruited tailback from Long Beach, has made it known that his
mission is to inflict punishment on anybody wearing a UCLA uniform.
Herman, for your sake, when you get in the game against the Bruins,
I suggest running away from Kenyon Coleman. The man is 6-foot-5,
285 and can bench press 450 pounds. Herman, you do not weigh
anywhere near 450 pounds. The Ducks may finish fifth, but I cannot
see such a strong team not being given a berth in a bowl game.

Oregon State: their uniforms resemble orange cones for a reason.
Oh wait, that was the last thirty years. The Beavers have started
the season with a 2-0 start and, surprise, have the mindset for a
bowl game. If only they had beaten USC; then I could have said
something good about them. Because of the Pac-10’s spot as the
premiere conference in football this year (sorry SEC), OSU is still
mired near the bottom of the standings. This doesn’t mean they are
a bad team, it just means everybody else is better

Stanford: Stanford’s team lacks serious star power and any real
flavor. It’s just an average team. Troy Walters is exceptional at
the flanker spot, and their linebacker core is solid. Below that,
the Cardinal is mostly in trouble. Maybe last year’s quarterback,
Chad Hutchinson, knows something the rest of the team didn’t. He
quit football to pursue the relatively safe sport of baseball. I
give head coach Tyrone Willingham an "A" for effort, however, he
doesn’t have the talent to make Stanford a real contender. The
upper half of the conference will push Stanford down to eighth or
ninth.

On Oct. 19, Stanford reiterated to the rest of the world that
the Pac-10 really is the best when they dispatched the ACC’s second
best team, North Carolina using their second string
quarterback.

Washington: Washington will present a hardy challenge for any
team that visits the unfriendly confines of Husky Stadium. Brock
Huard will look to put up big numbers in his Heisman campaign, but
no way does coach Jim Lambright let that affect the team.

Washington lost two NFL caliber linemen in Benji Olsen and Olin
Kreutz, but they are still stacked on both sides of the ball.
Rashan Shehee is gone, but Maurice Shaw showed he is more then
capable of fulfilling his duties at running back. Lambright never
lets his defense go soft, so opponents will have to work hard for
every score they get. Speed demon Ja’Warren Hooker can cover any
receiver in the country and poses a dangerous threat as a kick
returner.

The Bruins will miss Damian Allen, who left the team after the
first game to focus on track, because Hooker is undoubtedly the
fastest football player in the Pac-10. The Huskies have showed that
they are a serious team after beating the Sun Devils in Tempe on a
great fourth quarter comeback, then going on to shut down BYU the
following game.

In any of the past seasons Udub would be happy with my Rose Bowl
prediction. However, this is the age of the Mega Bowl Alliance. I,
like many of you, find it sacrilege to call the Rose Bowl "second
best," but that is what it is this year. Washington – sorry, you
get "stuck" going to the Rose Bowl after your second place Pac-10
finish.

Washington State: Last year’s team was an aberration. And the
aberration’s name was Ryan Leaf. The Cougar’s cupboard isn’t bare,
but it’s close to it.

The quarterback situation is unresolved, and even the best
solution is not that great. Washington State looks to emphasize
team speed and athleticism. This is a euphemism for "we can run
fast, but we’re not really big enough to do anything."

The Cougars were picked to finish seventh by the Pac-10 media
(can you believe I was not included in the voting?) before the ’97
season, as well as before this season. Think they wouldn’t settle
for the same results as last year?

Southern Cal: Trojan fans always love to think that their team
is a lot better then it really is, and this year is no exception. I
am forced to admit that R. Jay Soward is one of the better
receivers in the country, and Chris Claiborne is one of the tougher
and more athletic linebackers around. However, there is not much
after that for Trojan fans. On offense Mike VanRaaphorst can only
improve from last season at quarterback, the running game is still
looking for somebody to step up and the only solid player on the
offensive line is Travis Claridge.

On the other side of the ball, the Trojans do not scare anybody.
The overly-touted Daylon McCutcheon is the featured defensive
backfield star – and that is good news for the likes of Huard,
Kealy and McNown.

I can just picture Monday afternoon practice: "Son, I told you
last week, USC wears red and yellow." Responds McCutcheon: "But
coach, I can’t get the scorch marks out of my uniform." The Trojans
may beat the lower tier teams in the Pac-10, but they will not be
able to handle the likes of Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Arizona
State. After the Trojans fail for the eighth straight year to the
Mighty Bruins they will hope to beat the Golden Domers of Notre
Dame so that they may then proclaim there season a success. Such is
the mentality of a Trojan fan.

UCLA: Bruin fans may have doubts as to whether we are serious
contenders due to recent campaigns that didn’t exactly dazzle fans.
However, I contend that last year was no fluke. We are on the right
track. We have a good solid player base at every position, and
Coach Toledo and staff have roped in the best recruiting class in
the country last year. But this column is about my prediction for
this season, not the future of Bruin Football. Here are two
possibilities for the upcoming season.

Worst cast scenario. Defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti tries to
figure out what his predecessor Rocky Long did last year and fails
miserably. This would be an incredibly foolhardy move. Nobody could
figure out what Long was doing last year.

Coach Toledo told me a little bit ago, "We had no idea what he
was doing, we just told Rocky ‘Go get the ball back for the
offense’ and he did it. There was no way to understand his defense,
it just worked."

Basically what Long did was redefine defensive football. We did
not have enough depth at the defensive line, so he made up his own
positions. The rest of the worst case scenario on defense: Our
small (except for the aforementioned Coleman) defensive line cannot
hold its own without the aggressiveness that Jason Nevadomsky and
Danjuan Magee provided last year,and none of the incoming defensive
linemen are up to the level of NCAA football. The linebacking corps
provides no spark on defense; no turnovers, no sacks and no big
plays.

Also, Butkus Award candidate Brendan Ayenbedajo shys away from
the leadership role that the defense needs him to take. Jason Bell
does not improve, and Damien Allen shows coverage skills that do
not match his raw speed. Freshman Lovell Houston proves that he is
not quite ready to handle the likes of Northcut, Jackson and
Soward.

On offense, even more could go wrong. Last year, Cade’s
strengths were calmly evading defenders, creating something out of
nothing and good decision making. Not accurate passing. If Cade
does not improve on his accuracy, the competition may eventually
figure out his decision making process and force him to throw to
the outside more often then he would like.

Last year things were made easy by an awesome offensive line and
a truly great running back. This year there are a few questions
about the offensive line, and many at the running back spot. If the
Bruins use the pass to set up the run like they did last year, and
then don’t have the strength to run, the ball is going to be in the
air the entire game, just waiting to get picked off.

If the new starters on the offensive line can’t get it done,
even talented veterans Kris Farris and Andy Meyers will not be
enough. When the defense cuts off the passing lanes to our gifted
tight ends, it will be a long afternoon for the Bruins, and Cade’s
Heisman will be flushed down the drain. But even in the worst case
scenario, the Bruins still beat the Trojans handily and finish with
six wins, which will be good enough for a bowl.

Best case scenario. I was all set to talk at great lengths about
how good Freddie Mitchell was, how much of an impact he was going
to make on this year’s team. He was to be our spark, a
multi-talented speedster with hands softer then pillows,
mind-boggling breakaway speed and the mentality and strength to
unleash hits that belie his 5-foot-10 frame.

Freddie Mitchell could catch a bb in the dark while running
backwards. Linemen run around the practice field looking to lay a
hit on Freddie because he dishes out shots as hard as any of them.
In one practice Freddie caught a ball that was practically behind
his back, realized his shorts were dropping, picked them up from
his knees, and still outraced his defender.

I like to call him "The Testdriver" because he runs around
defensive backs like they’re road obstacles. Either that or he runs
over them. After Freddie’s first game at the Rose Bowl, which
included four catches for over a hundred yards, a kickoff return
for 43 yards, a 34 yard run, a 30 yard pass and Pac-10 player of
the week honors, I doubt anybody would argue with me.

But the Cade-Mitchell combo will never be seen again (at least
at this level of football). At the Oct. 19 game at Houston, Freddie
sustained a broken femur after a long kickoff return and will miss
the entire 1998 National Championship Season. As Freddie laid in
pain on the sidelines, our hearts were with the young man from
Lakeland, Fla. Freddie, our hearts are still with you, get well
soon.

Now, here’s a rundown of the rest of our season (keep in mind
the paper was published before the Sept. 27th game at Miami). The
Bruins run the Pac-10 table including a great win against the
Huskies in Washington. By this time Cade has solidified his
position as Heisman front-runner and the entire defense has
forgotten who that Rocky Long guy was.

Brick wall Kenyon Coleman has made all the schools that stopped
recruiting him after his high school injury incredibly sorry.
Opposing teams have often confused Ayenbedajo with their own
tailback because he spends just as much time in their offensive
backfield.

And offensive coordinator Al Borges has teamed with Coach Toledo
to confuse every defense that steps on the field against the
Bruins.

The large offensive line, led by Farris, Meyers, Shaun Stuart
and 325-pound Brian Pollack manhandles defensive fronts and opens
up holes so huge that we could fit all three running backs through
them at the same time. Coach Toledo forgets all about which single
running back will gain 1,000 yards because all three do it.

But no season would be complete without the annual whooping of
the Trojans. In the best case scenario, we don’t just beat Southern
Cal, we stomp them into submission.

Their pride and joy Soward is held to one catch for minus two
yards, and Cade’s only incompletion is a pass that nails the stupid
Trojan horse (anybody remember the song "Old Gray Mare Ain’t What
She Used to Be?") Travesty right in the behind, forcing it to buck
itis rider clear into the fifth row.

The conclusion to the best Bruin season since the 1954 National
Championship team begins in December with Cade winning the Heisman
Trophy. Then on Jan. 4 in Tempe, UCLA runs its winning streak to an
amazing 22 straight wins and UCLA students riot in Westwood as the
team lays claim to its national championship.

I’m sure there are many of you out there who are sure that the
season will end up somewhere between the two scenarios I have
presented. But keep in mind that if you look at our schedule, we
are currently favored in every single game.

If we entered the Fiesta Bowl undefeated, it would be hard to
make us the underdog against anybody. My prediction? The best case
scenario is ours.Greg Lewis

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© 1998 ASUCLA Communications Board