Pac-12 football continues legacy of unpredictable matchups

For years, the Pac-12 has been a league defined by unpredictable results and unreliable teams.

The one school that seemed immune to the uncertainty was Stanford. You could count on the Cardinal.

That’s why it wasn’t all that surprising when Stanford engineered a late-game comeback to beat UCLA in September. But the next week, the Cardinal traveled to Seattle to take on Washington, and the Huskies promptly blew to smithereens the natural order of the conference.

Washington thumped Stanford 44-6, positioning itself as the clear favorite in the Pac-12 and the conference’s top contender for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

After a 70-21 Oct. 8 blowout of Oregon on the road and a bye this past Saturday, Washington is now 6-0 and currently sits at No. 5 in both the AP Poll and the Coaches’ Poll. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Huskies have a 26.3 percent chance of winning out and a 58.4 percent chance of winning the Pac-12 title.

They very well may have both the best offense and best defense in the conference.

Led by Heisman candidate quarterback Jake Browning, the nation’s leader in passer rating, the Husky offense is second in the conference in yards per rush and first in yards per pass, while the defense is first in opponents’ yards per rush and fourth in opponents’ yards per pass.

Washington is second in the nation in offensive efficiency and fifth in defensive efficiency, according to Football Outsiders’ advanced stats.

Though the Huskies are a remarkably well-rounded team, Pro Football Focus pointed out earlier this week that their pass protection could be an issue as the season progresses. Luckily, Browning completes an excellent 68.6 percent of his passes when pressured, but he’s faced pressure on 33.2 percent of his dropbacks. Not an ideal rate for an elite offense.

Possible challengers

Going forward, Washington faces tough tests in playing both Utah (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) and Washington State (4-2, 3-0 Pac-12) on the road.

The Cougars started the season with two losses out of conference, including an embarrassing one to the Eastern Washington Eagles of the Football Championship Subdivision, but have started conference play 3-0 to move into top-25 consideration.

They’re helmed by a star quarterback of their own in Luke Falk, ranked second in the nation behind Browning in completion percentage, and boast a solid defense that ranks third in the Football Bowl Subdivision in turnover rate, per Football Outsiders.

Utah, which has piled up a 6-1 record even in the face of an unrelenting rash of injuries, joins Washington as the conference’s only contenders for the College Football Playoff.

The Utes, who are No. 19 in the latest AP Poll and No. 18 in the Coaches’ Poll, would need to win out in order to present a convincing argument for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Utah could have a tough time doing so. None of their six wins have been convincing, and Football Outsiders tabs them as the team that has most outperformed its expected win total, as produced by advanced statistics. Even if they can make it unscathed through the remainder of their regular season schedule, which includes Washington and upstart Colorado, the Utes would likely have to face Washington a second time in the Pac-12 title game.

The rest

The rest of the conference is full of the unpredictability that’s been such a staple of the Pac-12 in recent years.

Colorado is out of the running for the College Football Playoff because of two losses to Michigan and USC, but the Buffaloes have impressed this season. After finishing 1-8 in conference play last year, Colorado has started 3-1 and is tied with Utah for first in the Pac-12 South.

Freshman backup quarterback Steven Montez filled in admirably while starter Sefo Liufau was injured, and Colorado has surprisingly boasted the second-best pass efficiency in the Pac-12, behind only Washington. The pass defense efficiency has also been second-best in the conference, behind only UCLA’s.

The Buffaloes lost Oct. 8 to the USC Trojans, who have recovered from a 1-3 start to win their last three games. Since taking over as the starter four games ago, redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Darnold has been excellent, tossing 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions while completing 66.7 percent of his passes.

The Trojans, sitting at 3-2 in conference, still have a decent shot at winning the Pac-12 South, as do the Arizona State Sun Devils, who have started conference play at 2-2.

UCLA, with a 1-3 conference record, is not mathematically eliminated from contention for the Pac-12 South crown, but the Bruins would need a lot to go in their favor in order to reach the conference title game.