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Beat writers’ game day predictions: UCLA v. Stanford

By camayak

Nov. 26, 2014 4:17 a.m.

Prior to each UCLA football game, the Daily Bruin football beat writers will predict the score and give a short reasoning behind their predictions.

To keep track of how far off each writer’s predictions are from reality, the “prediction differential” statistic shows the average difference between the writer’s predicted margin of victory and the actual margin of victory in each game.

Kevin Bowman’s prediction

UCLA: 24

Stanford: 13

Prediction record: 9-2

Prediction differential: 12.8

Stanford may be the Pac-12’s top defense, but it also has the conference’s worst offense. Making matters worse for the Cardinal is that it’ll be without one of its only offensive weapons this week in wide receiver Ty Montgomery.

Points for the Cardinal will be tough to come by, especially considering the improvement that UCLA’s defense has shown as of late. Stanford’s tough-nosed running approach should still find a way to get the Cardinal at least some points, but for Stanford to win, it likely will need to hold a UCLA offense – which averages 35 points per game – to below 20.

UCLA’s lowest scoring output this season is 17 points against Arizona, and if any defense is able to bother the Bruins’ offense that much again, it’s the Cardinal’s.

Stanford has had a history of success behind its physical and disciplined defenses, and that combination could be enough to give UCLA fits. If Stanford can throw UCLA out of its rhythm enough, it has a chance to pull out a win. But I expect the Bruins’ offense to score just enough to outlast the Cardinal.

Jordan Lee’s prediction

UCLA: 24

Stanford: 14

Prediction record: 10-1

Prediction differential: 13.2

The contrarian in me wanted to take Stanford. After all, there are plenty of reasons not to like UCLA heading into Friday’s game.

The Cardinal is a squad renowned for its fundamentals and discipline – a team perfectly capable of forcing an opponent into making crucial mistakes while limiting its own.

Stanford presents the biggest defensive test that UCLA has faced this year, boasting a top-six defense that can take away both the run and pass.

The Cardinal has done just that in its previous three matchups with the Bruins – all Stanford victories – holding UCLA to fewer than 80 rushing yards in two of those contests while redshirt junior quarterback Brett Hundley has never thrown the ball well against the Cardinal.

In three career games, Hundley has completed 62 percent of his passes, averaged 5.83 yards per attempt and 210 yards per game while lobbing just two touchdowns to four interceptions. Against all other teams, Hundley completes 68.9 percent of his passes, and averages 8.4 yards per attempt and 258.83 yards per game, while his touchdown-to-interception ratio is better than 3-to-1.

But then there are plenty of numbers to like UCLA for.

Stanford is 0-5 against ranked opponents this year and minus-six in turnover margin on the season. The offense has been anemic at times this year, ranking dead last in the conference in points per game.

And while UCLA has dropped six straight against Stanford, including three under coach Jim Mora, the Bruins are riding a five-game win streak and are playing as well as any team in the country. During that win streak, UCLA’s defense held the potent offenses of USC and Arizona to a combined 20 points and limited Washington to 13 points through three quarters before the Bruins put the game well out of reach.

But the most important number is this: one. As in one game away from the Pac-12 South title and a date with Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game a week from Friday. Given how well UCLA has played of late, how poor Stanford’s offense is and how much the Bruins have riding on this game, the rationalist in me won out. As will UCLA – in the regular season, at least.

Compiled by Kevin Bowman and Jordan Lee, Bruin Sports senior staff.

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