Single Democratic candidate leads in polls
By Daily Bruin Staff
Nov. 17, 2009 11:02 p.m.
The state of California is preparing itself for a new executive in Sacramento as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s second term approaches its final year.
But over the last several weeks the pool of gubernatorial candidates has tightened significantly.
Surprising the public, San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom withdrew himself from the race on Oct. 30, following in the footsteps of Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, leaving only one candidate standing for the Democrats and only four candidates left in the entire race.
It now appears that the Democratic candidate is going to be Jerry Brown, said Daniel Lowenstein, professor of law at UCLA.
Brown, who currently serves as the state’s attorney general, held office as California’s governor from 1975 to 1983 but is allowed to run in 2010 because the limit on terms was not established until 1990.
“Jerry Brown is not easy to pigeon-hole,” Lowenstein said. “On some kinds of things he’s quite liberal and on other kinds of things, including fiscal policy, he’s fairly conservative.”
In contrast to the Democrat’s uncontested candidacy, three still remain for the Republican Party: former congressman Tom Campbell, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman.
Of these candidates, Whitman has emerged as the most popular, although by a small margin, for the GOP.
According to a poll conducted in October by the Field Research Corporation, an independent and non-partisan surveyor of public opinion, Whitman held a 2 percent voter-preference lead over Campbell, the next closest candidate, and a 13 percent lead over Poizner.
While Poizner is probably the most conservative in the race and Campbell would be generally regarded as the most liberal of the candidates, Whitman’s political history is something of an unknown.
“Whitman is the hardest to evaluate,” Lowenstein said. “She has no track record in politics.”
Yet despite the former CEO’s lack of political experience, “I think that at the moment, Whitman is probably (the frontrunner) and probably has greater name recognition,” said Jeff Lewis, professor of political science at UCLA.
Despite this, the popularity polls show Brown as the leader in the general election match-ups against each GOP candidate.
According to the same Field Poll, Brown leads Whitman in voter preference by 21 percent, while also leading Campbell and Poizner another 21 percent, and 25 percent respectively.
“I think right now, all things equal, you have to say that Jerry Brown has a pretty good shot,” Lewis said.
But with a year before the election, predictions for the 2010 election are hard to make.
“I would say that if you were betting on it you would have to make Brown the favorite,” Lowenstein said. “But I don’t think it’s out of the question that a Republican can defeat Brown.”
