Impact of negative ads uncertain
By Rotem Ben-Shachar
Sept. 28, 2008 10:51 p.m.
On July 30, John McCain’s campaign released a television ad flashing images of Paris Hilton, Britney Spears and Barack Obama. The ad likened Obama to these Hollywood starlets and questions whether his celebrity qualifies him to be president.
There is currently much debate between experts over the effectiveness of negative ads ““ defined as any ad stating an opponent’s name.
According to an article published in the Journal of Politics titled “The effects of negative political campaigns; a meta-analytics reassessment,” voters pay attention to negative ads, but they are not particularly effective in swaying someone’s vote.
“The research literature does not bear out the idea that negative campaigning is an effective means of winning votes, even though it tends to be more memorable and stimulate knowledge about the campaign,” according to the article.
Henry Brady, a political science professor at UC Berkeley, said the McCain celebrity ad backfired.
“It doesn’t follow that being a celebrity means you cannot govern a country,” he said. “Plus, McCain has relied on his celebrity as a war veteran.”
Obama received criticism for an ad that tries to show how out of touch McCain is with technology. The ad shows ancient computers and phones, while claiming that McCain doesn’t know how to use a computer and has never sent an e-mail.
Other negative ads have been very effective, Brady said, most notably the swiftboat ads in the 2004 election questioning John Kerry’s service in Vietnam.
“This year’s negative ads are not as vicious as those in 2004, but can still poke holes of people’s perceptions of candidates,” said Flavia de la Fuente, a member of Bruin Democrats.
An ad run by Hillary Clinton’s campaign during the Democratic primaries ““ asking which candidate voters would rather answer the White House phone at 3 a.m. ““ was effective.
“This ad was successful because it was effective in highlighting the importance of Clinton’s experience over Obama’s,” Brady said.
Stephen Crisafulli, a member of Bruin Republicans, said that he thinks negative ads play a large role in the election.
“I think when negative ads are done correctly, they can be very effective because they focus on contrasts between candidates,” he said.
Negative ads are useful toward the end of the campaign, when a candidate wants to undermine an opponent’s strength, Brady said.
Matthew Baum, a professor of public policy at Harvard University, said that negative ads stand out to voters, but do not necessarily change their views.
“People have a tendency to pay more attention to bad news, so negative ads are able to capture more attention than other types of ads, but these ads are not necessarily going to change people’s votes. It may make them more likely to show up to vote,” Baum said.
In his book, “In Defense of Negativity,” John Geer, a political science professor at Vanderbilt, said that negative ads have more policy content than other ads and people therefore learn more about candidates from negative ads.
Many critics of negative ads believe they decrease voter turnout and increase political cynicism. But there has been no definitive evidence that this is true.
There is no reliable evidence that negative campaigning depresses voter turnout, according to the Journal of Politics article. “Though (negative campaigning) does slightly lower feelings of political efficacy, trust in government, and possibly overall public mood,” according to the article.
Baum said that negative ads make staunch Democrats and Republicans angrier with the opposing party, making them more inclined to vote.
“Voters that are non-partisan are more likely to be turned off,” he said.
A problem with negative ads is they may imply messages that are not completely accurate, Brady said.
A McCain ad claimed Obama raised taxes on the middle class, which is false. And an Obama ad claimed McCain would continue the Iraq War for the next 100 years ““ an exaggeration of when McCain said the United States would stay in Iraq for a long time.
“Negative ads are not so bad, but they need to be presented in a completely factual way,” he said.
How negative ads will impact the election is still unknown, but experts agree that the strength of negative ads is that they get people’s attention.
“These ads have a lasting impression,” Brady said.
