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Microscopic enemies pose imminent, unpredictable threat

By Jeyling Chou

Oct. 13, 2002 9:00 p.m.

On March 20, 1995, five teams of men boarded trains on the Tokyo
subway system. Unnoticed amid Monday morning rush-hour traffic, the
men placed lunch boxes and soft-drink containers on the floors of
trains.

The containers were punctured with umbrellas before the men got
off. Odorless, colorless and deadly, Sarin gas was released into
the air.

As a result of this act of terrorism, twelve people were dead
and 5,500 people injured.

In recent years, the threat and shape of terrorism has morphed
from deadly gas to hijacked airplanes. But now, the invaders may be
smaller than the head of a pin, in the form
of bioterrorism.

The threat of impending war against Iraq and the ongoing war on
terrorism has the United States government bracing for a potential
bioterrorist attack.

“Iraq definitely has biological weapons,” said Ralph
Robinson, a professor in the UCLA microbiology
department. “They had bioweapons 10 years ago. And if we
have an enemy (like Iraq), you have to assume that they will use
those weapons. But the question is: Who are they going to
attack?”

The American government is battling with that very question.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has listed
possible biological weapons of mass destruction in three categories
based on the ease of transmission, the potential to cause public
panic and the necessary steps toward preparation.

Among these possible biological agents is anthrax. Inhalation of
anthrax spores could be lethal if not treated within 48 hours, and
its symptoms resemble those of the flu.

“If anthrax was released in Moore 100, it would affect
everyone in Moore 100 who had class on that given day,”
Robinson said. “But hopefully there would be some
notification of an attack, so everyone who had class that day would
go down and get antibiotic treatment.”

And that’s the best-case scenario.

“If the attack was secret, you wouldn’t notice until
people started to get sick,” he said. “And then
there would be deaths.”

While the effects of anthrax are lethal, it’s fairly easy
to contain locally. If smallpox (another pathogen) were used as a
bioweapon, it could cause nationwide panic.

Smallpox is one of the few potential terrorist agents that can
be transmitted from person to person. This aspect of the
disease is it’s most terrifying, and most appealing to
terrorists.

“You have to think of the mind of a terrorist,”
Robinson said. “If I was a terrorist and I wanted to
kill people in a cheap, low-tech way, I would infect myself with
smallpox and I would get real friendly.”

“I would go to airports (and) subways. I could only be
infectious for four to five days before I get really sick, but I
could infect 400 to 500 people,” Robinson said.

“A terrorist who doesn’t care about their own
health; that’s the most dangerous weapon in the world,”
he added.

In 1977 the World Health Organization required that all
governments destroy their samples of smallpox.

“Well, maybe they did (eradicate smallpox) and
maybe they didn’t. Nobody checked,” Robinson said.

Regardless, the potential of smallpox as a bioterror agent has
never diminished.

The United States recently authorized the purchase of
approximately 300 million doses of the vaccine, even though the
disease has been extinct for over 25 years after a successful
worldwide vaccination program.

The federal government has also asked for the ability of each
state to vaccinate all residents within 10 days of a smallpox
attack.

So why doesn’t the government carry through with its plans
to pre-vaccinate all citizens?

According to Dr. Eric Savitsky, professor at the UCLA Medical
School, there is not enough substantial information to drastically
increase the level of concern.

“Vaccination is possible but not recommended because the
risk associated with the vaccine versus the risk of getting
smallpox right now is not in favor of getting vaccinated,” he
said.

The smallpox vaccine is derived from a similar disease called
cowpox and causes the vaccinated patient to develop transmittable
symptoms. The blister that sometimes develops in the area of
the shot itself, if brushed against, can transfer the disease.

“If they vaccinated everyone in the United States,
it’s guaranteed that about 600 people would die,”
Robinson said.

There lies the government’s dilemma: Is smallpox enough of
a threat to jeopardize the lives of at least 600 people?

“If there was a case of smallpox in a tiny hospital in
Kansas City, all airplane traffic would stop,” Robinson said.
“All borders would be closed down. This country would be
shut down in two days. The economic impact would be
extraordinary.”

The onset of smallpox in this country would resemble an
apocalypse.

“The UCLA campus would be closed down,” he
continued. “Everyone would be sent home. People would be
cocooning themselves … and there would be an immediate rush on
food and water.”

The anticipation of a bioterrorist attack can strike fear into
anyone, but this may not necessarily be a bad thing.

“A little bit of fear is probably a good thing,”
said Peter Katona, professor in the department of infectious
diseases at the UCLA Medical School.

“Having an amount of concern for something that I think is
very likely to happen at some point is appropriate,” he said.
“But if you panic, then you will have accomplished what the
terrorists want to happen without them even doing it.”

Professor Robinson shares the same sentiments. He loses no sleep
over mysterious white powders and invisible microorganisms.

Then what are bioterrorism experts like Robinson afraid of?

“Car accidents and earthquakes.”

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Jeyling Chou
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