From Press Row
Final Four Preview
Posted March 29, 2007
UCLA is once again in the Final Four. That's back-to-back which hasn't been done since Gene Bartow took the '76 Bruins to the national semifinals the year after John Wooden won his last of 10 NCAA titles in '75. Order has been restored.
Now, the year of the freshmen and the year of the non-upset has boiled down
to the last four teams standing: UCLA, Florida, Ohio St. and Georgetown (two no.1s and two no.2s). The quality of basketball is guaranteed to be excellent this weekend with only true collegiate heavyweights remaining, and that prospect has got me extremely pumped.
Florida of course, utterly dismantled the Bruins in the final. Joakim Noah and Al Horford had their way inside (Alfred Aboya's monster dunk not-withstanding), Corey Brewer erased Arron Afflalo, and Taurean Green and Lee Humphrey lit up the RCA Dome from long-range. UCLA on the other hand, played their worst game in over a month at the absolute wrong time.
Many in the media and the public seem to think that since Florida has pretty much the exact same roster back, Saturday's game will be no different. The Gators are supposed to roll. And they've sure been talking like that's what they think will happen.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/college/ucla/la-sp-plaschke27mar27,1,1534101.column?coll=la-headlines-sports-coll-ucla
It's plainly obvious to people who have watched this Bruin team that it's a different version of the team that rolled its way to the title game a year ago.
Start with the personnel.
Gone are starting point guard Jordan Farmar and Cedric Bozeman and Ryan Hollins from the frontcourt. Only Farmar was effective in the championship game scoring 18 points to the lead the Bruins. Hollins had a double-double but was ineffective in slowing down Noah or Horford inside.
This year that trio has been replaced by Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, and Lorenzo Mata. The revenge and respect factor has been boiling inside this team for a year, and with a week to get ready, Bruin fans can be sure Ben Howland will have UCLA prepared for the rematch.
What makes the Gators so dangerous is that they are a complete team with very few weaknesses. Noah and Horford inside can both score within a halfcourt set and in transition. Both are shotblocking presences and rebound in traffic effectively. Corey Brewer is not a great shooter, but is a slasher and his length at 6'8'' causes nightmares for opponents defensively. Lee Humphrey is perfect in this team as a pure spot-up shooter, and Taurean Green is one of the best lead guards in the country and is also an excellent three-point shooter.
The key to this game, I think, will be out out on the perimeter. Most will focus on the inside game where Florida has the clear advantage, but the game will be won or lost on the outside. UCLA's vaunted double team was ineffective against Florida a season ago, but I think if selectively used it can be a weapon on Saturday particularly against Horford. I see Noah as much less of a threat with his back to the basket and I think, can be reasonably be guarded 1-on-1 by one of UCLA's three big men (Aboya, Mata, or Mbah a Moute). Horford is a much more of a threat inside and should be attacked defensively.
Lee Humphrey is the other focal point I would make to disrupt Florida's offense. His three pointers are daggers, and when he gets on a roll like he did against Oregon, he can shoot a team out of a game. Closing out on Humphrey will be vital, and as he is a poor defensive player, he should be attacked on the other end of the floor. Whoever he is guarding, whether it be Afflalo or Shipp should take advantage of their superior size and post him at every opportunity.
The change in the rematch from Farmar to Collison guarding Green for 35 minutes should greatly improve the chances of slowing down Green. In all of Florida's previous losses, Taurean Green has played poorly and having Collison applying defensive pressure for 40 minutes will be key to making that happen. Also, forcing Corey Brewer to beat you offensively will also improve the UCLA chances of winning because Brewer is an inconsistent shooter from 3-pt. land, and although has been leading the Gators in scoring in the tournament, is shooting only 5-19 from the three.
Suffice it to say, UCLA will have to play almost a perfect game Saturday if they are to win, but I've got a funny feeling that they'll be able to get it done. The Bruins are a year older, and a year better, and are clearly not the same team they were a year ago no matter how much Florida might think they are. I think the revenge factor coupled with the overconfidence factor for the Gators will give the Bruins the edge psychologically.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=2818342&sportCat=ncb
Also, I won't bet against Ben Howland when he has almost a week to prepare. In the last two seasons, UCLA is 30-2 when Howland has had 4+ days to get his team ready. The proximity of Atlanta to Florida has been talked about as an edge for the Gators, but I believe it to be the opposite. There will be tons of Florida fans in the Georgia Dome to be sure, and they will be loud, but I would expect that many of the non-partisan fans in attendance will be rooting to see the defending national champions go down. Add all that up, and you've got my prediction:
UCLA 72, Florida 70 in one helluva game.
- Go out and see HBO's documentary The UCLA Dynasty. Go to a friend's house, record it, find it online, whatever. It should be required viewing for any Bruin fan.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/26/arts/26dyna.html
- Luc's dad will get to see his son play for the first time
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/26/sports/ncaabasketball/26moute.html
- No less an authority than John Wooden himself believes this year's Bruins plays better defense than any of the vaunted championship teams of the past
http://www.latimes.com/sports/college/ucla/la-sp-dwyre27mar27,1,766011.column?coll=la-headlines-sports-coll-ucla
- Finally some love for UCLA fan favorite Lorenzo Mata
http://www.venturacountystar.com/vcs/college/article/0,1375,VCS_137_5450259,00.html
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-mata29mar29,1,6374132.story?coll=la-headlines-sports&ctrack=1&cset=true
http://www.pe.com/sports/college/ucla/stories/PE_Sports_Local_D_ja_col_29.4008526.html
- So Ben Howland isn't warm and cuddly. We already knew that. His obsessive nature is what makes him a great coach.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/college/ucla/la-sp-howland29mar29,0,5445534.story?page=1&coll=la-home-headlines
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/04/sports/playmagazine/04play-howland.html?ex=1175400000&en=b1fc997cf39306c0&ei=5070
-Jim Harrick, coach of the 1995 title team, is a Bruin for life.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/29/sports/ncaabasketball/29harrick.html


