Predictions bring joy to UCLA, tears to everyone else
Monday, September 28, 1998
Predictions bring joy to UCLA, tears to everyone else
COMMENTARY: Best case scenario projects Bruins as NCAA champions
Hello readers. If you are like me, you are incredibly relieved. No more emotionally empty Saturday Mornings. An intense, burning desire to book plane tickets and hotel reservations for the first week of January in Tempe, Ariz. Daily updates on the top 10 contenders for the Heisman Trophy (and no, it doesn't go Cade, Cade, Cade ...) Great perturbation at the mention that Southern Cal might have a good team this year. And Kirk Herbstreet every Saturday morning! College Football season is finally here.
To help out all you people who do not see the value of watching the football team practice every day of summer break, I will give you a preview, in alphabetical order (with the exception of Southern Cal and UCLA) of how I think our beloved Pac-10 conference will end up.
Arizona: A team with loads and loads of potential. A lot of young athletic talent. Last year's offensive coordinator Homer Smith, who is almost as creative as our own coach Bob Toledo, is gone. That means the offense may be a little less intricate, but it will probably still be able to score in the neighborhood of 28 points a game.
Quarterback Ortege Jenkins will give defensive linemen fits by showing what I like to call "pocket ignorance." If Jenkins knows where the pocket is, he sure fooled me. Look for wide receiver and kick returner Dennis Northcut to be a big play man. He averaged 23 yards per kick return, became the first Wildcat to score a touchdown on offense and defense in the same season in over 20 years and is the leading scorer from last year's strong team. Head coach Dick Tomey is chalked full of experience and will probably have his squad in third place at the end of the season.
Arizona State: At the start of the season, the Sun Devils were all about the present. They thought, along with many others, that this was to be their year. A less-then-stellar performance to start the season has made the Sun Devils re-assess their January plans, and two early season losses have knocked down their Mythical National Championship hopes.
In the first game Brock Huard showed why he is the second-best quarterback in the country, and in the second week BYU unleashed a weapon that Provo had never seen before: a running game. A good season, however, is still theirs for the taking, Their offense is nothing less then potent. Quarterback Ryan Kealy is experienced and talented and is definitely in the upper echelon of college quarterbacks. JR Redmond is the all-purpose yardage man. He gets it done through the air, on the ground, on returns, from the tailback position, from the wide receiver spot, heck, I'd bet he would swim for the yardage if he could.
Senior Lenzie Jackson is the game-breaker that will really make the offense dangerous. ASU's main strength, however, is its stingy defense. Despite the departure to the NFL of pit-bull linebacker Pat Tillman, the deep and strong Arizona State defense will be devilishly tough to crack. Coach Snyder's squad will probably be the happiest fourth place team in the country. Fourth place in the Pac-10 means a Christmas trip to Hawaii for the Aloha Bowl!
Cal: Nothing personal guys, but once again, this is not your year in football. Good news: the Bears will win 133 percent as many games as they did last year. Bad news: that amounts to a total of four wins this season. Bay Area fans will still like Holmoe after he loses his job at the end of the season because he has three Super Bowl rings with the 49ers and is a longtime associate of Bill Walsh. I would be surprised if the Bears finish higher then eighth, and they are in serious danger of being the second worst team in the conference.
Oregon: Oregon looks to continue their solid finish from last season with an equally strong '98 season. During the 41-13 pummeling they administered to Air Force at last year's Las Vegas Bowl, they showed a glimpse of what their team goals for this season are: explosive outside plays, speed at the running back spot and an extremely aggressive defense.
Peter Sirmon will be a Dick Butkus-type animal at the inside linebacker spot. He won the Pac-10 defensive player of the week on more then one occasion for good reason last season. Look for him to be a finalist for the Butkus Award at the end of the season.
And UCLA fans looking for a "duck" need look no further then freshman running back Herman Ho-Ching. Ho-Ching, a heavily recruited tailback from Long Beach, has made it known that his mission is to inflict punishment on anybody wearing a UCLA uniform. Herman, for your sake, when you get in the game against the Bruins, I suggest running away from Kenyon Coleman. The man is 6-foot-5, 285 and can bench press 450 pounds. Herman, you do not weigh anywhere near 450 pounds. The Ducks may finish fifth, but I cannot see such a strong team not being given a berth in a bowl game.
Oregon State: their uniforms resemble orange cones for a reason. Oh wait, that was the last thirty years. The Beavers have started the season with a 2-0 start and, surprise, have the mindset for a bowl game. If only they had beaten USC; then I could have said something good about them. Because of the Pac-10's spot as the premiere conference in football this year (sorry SEC), OSU is still mired near the bottom of the standings. This doesn't mean they are a bad team, it just means everybody else is better
Stanford: Stanford's team lacks serious star power and any real flavor. It's just an average team. Troy Walters is exceptional at the flanker spot, and their linebacker core is solid. Below that, the Cardinal is mostly in trouble. Maybe last year's quarterback, Chad Hutchinson, knows something the rest of the team didn't. He quit football to pursue the relatively safe sport of baseball. I give head coach Tyrone Willingham an "A" for effort, however, he doesn't have the talent to make Stanford a real contender. The upper half of the conference will push Stanford down to eighth or ninth.
On Oct. 19, Stanford reiterated to the rest of the world that the Pac-10 really is the best when they dispatched the ACC's second best team, North Carolina using their second string quarterback.
Washington: Washington will present a hardy challenge for any team that visits the unfriendly confines of Husky Stadium. Brock Huard will look to put up big numbers in his Heisman campaign, but no way does coach Jim Lambright let that affect the team.
Washington lost two NFL caliber linemen in Benji Olsen and Olin Kreutz, but they are still stacked on both sides of the ball. Rashan Shehee is gone, but Maurice Shaw showed he is more then capable of fulfilling his duties at running back. Lambright never lets his defense go soft, so opponents will have to work hard for every score they get. Speed demon Ja'Warren Hooker can cover any receiver in the country and poses a dangerous threat as a kick returner.
The Bruins will miss Damian Allen, who left the team after the first game to focus on track, because Hooker is undoubtedly the fastest football player in the Pac-10. The Huskies have showed that they are a serious team after beating the Sun Devils in Tempe on a great fourth quarter comeback, then going on to shut down BYU the following game.
In any of the past seasons Udub would be happy with my Rose Bowl prediction. However, this is the age of the Mega Bowl Alliance. I, like many of you, find it sacrilege to call the Rose Bowl "second best," but that is what it is this year. Washington - sorry, you get "stuck" going to the Rose Bowl after your second place Pac-10 finish.
Washington State: Last year's team was an aberration. And the aberration's name was Ryan Leaf. The Cougar's cupboard isn't bare, but it's close to it.
The quarterback situation is unresolved, and even the best solution is not that great. Washington State looks to emphasize team speed and athleticism. This is a euphemism for "we can run fast, but we're not really big enough to do anything."
The Cougars were picked to finish seventh by the Pac-10 media (can you believe I was not included in the voting?) before the '97 season, as well as before this season. Think they wouldn't settle for the same results as last year?
Southern Cal: Trojan fans always love to think that their team is a lot better then it really is, and this year is no exception. I am forced to admit that R. Jay Soward is one of the better receivers in the country, and Chris Claiborne is one of the tougher and more athletic linebackers around. However, there is not much after that for Trojan fans. On offense Mike VanRaaphorst can only improve from last season at quarterback, the running game is still looking for somebody to step up and the only solid player on the offensive line is Travis Claridge.
On the other side of the ball, the Trojans do not scare anybody. The overly-touted Daylon McCutcheon is the featured defensive backfield star - and that is good news for the likes of Huard, Kealy and McNown.
I can just picture Monday afternoon practice: "Son, I told you last week, USC wears red and yellow." Responds McCutcheon: "But coach, I can't get the scorch marks out of my uniform." The Trojans may beat the lower tier teams in the Pac-10, but they will not be able to handle the likes of Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Arizona State. After the Trojans fail for the eighth straight year to the Mighty Bruins they will hope to beat the Golden Domers of Notre Dame so that they may then proclaim there season a success. Such is the mentality of a Trojan fan.
UCLA: Bruin fans may have doubts as to whether we are serious contenders due to recent campaigns that didn't exactly dazzle fans. However, I contend that last year was no fluke. We are on the right track. We have a good solid player base at every position, and Coach Toledo and staff have roped in the best recruiting class in the country last year. But this column is about my prediction for this season, not the future of Bruin Football. Here are two possibilities for the upcoming season.
Worst cast scenario. Defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti tries to figure out what his predecessor Rocky Long did last year and fails miserably. This would be an incredibly foolhardy move. Nobody could figure out what Long was doing last year.
Coach Toledo told me a little bit ago, "We had no idea what he was doing, we just told Rocky 'Go get the ball back for the offense' and he did it. There was no way to understand his defense, it just worked."
Basically what Long did was redefine defensive football. We did not have enough depth at the defensive line, so he made up his own positions. The rest of the worst case scenario on defense: Our small (except for the aforementioned Coleman) defensive line cannot hold its own without the aggressiveness that Jason Nevadomsky and Danjuan Magee provided last year,and none of the incoming defensive linemen are up to the level of NCAA football. The linebacking corps provides no spark on defense; no turnovers, no sacks and no big plays.
Also, Butkus Award candidate Brendan Ayenbedajo shys away from the leadership role that the defense needs him to take. Jason Bell does not improve, and Damien Allen shows coverage skills that do not match his raw speed. Freshman Lovell Houston proves that he is not quite ready to handle the likes of Northcut, Jackson and Soward.
On offense, even more could go wrong. Last year, Cade's strengths were calmly evading defenders, creating something out of nothing and good decision making. Not accurate passing. If Cade does not improve on his accuracy, the competition may eventually figure out his decision making process and force him to throw to the outside more often then he would like.
Last year things were made easy by an awesome offensive line and a truly great running back. This year there are a few questions about the offensive line, and many at the running back spot. If the Bruins use the pass to set up the run like they did last year, and then don't have the strength to run, the ball is going to be in the air the entire game, just waiting to get picked off.
If the new starters on the offensive line can't get it done, even talented veterans Kris Farris and Andy Meyers will not be enough. When the defense cuts off the passing lanes to our gifted tight ends, it will be a long afternoon for the Bruins, and Cade's Heisman will be flushed down the drain. But even in the worst case scenario, the Bruins still beat the Trojans handily and finish with six wins, which will be good enough for a bowl.
Best case scenario. I was all set to talk at great lengths about how good Freddie Mitchell was, how much of an impact he was going to make on this year's team. He was to be our spark, a multi-talented speedster with hands softer then pillows, mind-boggling breakaway speed and the mentality and strength to unleash hits that belie his 5-foot-10 frame.
Freddie Mitchell could catch a bb in the dark while running backwards. Linemen run around the practice field looking to lay a hit on Freddie because he dishes out shots as hard as any of them. In one practice Freddie caught a ball that was practically behind his back, realized his shorts were dropping, picked them up from his knees, and still outraced his defender.
I like to call him "The Testdriver" because he runs around defensive backs like they're road obstacles. Either that or he runs over them. After Freddie's first game at the Rose Bowl, which included four catches for over a hundred yards, a kickoff return for 43 yards, a 34 yard run, a 30 yard pass and Pac-10 player of the week honors, I doubt anybody would argue with me.
But the Cade-Mitchell combo will never be seen again (at least at this level of football). At the Oct. 19 game at Houston, Freddie sustained a broken femur after a long kickoff return and will miss the entire 1998 National Championship Season. As Freddie laid in pain on the sidelines, our hearts were with the young man from Lakeland, Fla. Freddie, our hearts are still with you, get well soon.
Now, here's a rundown of the rest of our season (keep in mind the paper was published before the Sept. 27th game at Miami). The Bruins run the Pac-10 table including a great win against the Huskies in Washington. By this time Cade has solidified his position as Heisman front-runner and the entire defense has forgotten who that Rocky Long guy was.
Brick wall Kenyon Coleman has made all the schools that stopped recruiting him after his high school injury incredibly sorry. Opposing teams have often confused Ayenbedajo with their own tailback because he spends just as much time in their offensive backfield.
And offensive coordinator Al Borges has teamed with Coach Toledo to confuse every defense that steps on the field against the Bruins.
The large offensive line, led by Farris, Meyers, Shaun Stuart and 325-pound Brian Pollack manhandles defensive fronts and opens up holes so huge that we could fit all three running backs through them at the same time. Coach Toledo forgets all about which single running back will gain 1,000 yards because all three do it.
But no season would be complete without the annual whooping of the Trojans. In the best case scenario, we don't just beat Southern Cal, we stomp them into submission.
Their pride and joy Soward is held to one catch for minus two yards, and Cade's only incompletion is a pass that nails the stupid Trojan horse (anybody remember the song "Old Gray Mare Ain't What She Used to Be?") Travesty right in the behind, forcing it to buck itis rider clear into the fifth row.
The conclusion to the best Bruin season since the 1954 National Championship team begins in December with Cade winning the Heisman Trophy. Then on Jan. 4 in Tempe, UCLA runs its winning streak to an amazing 22 straight wins and UCLA students riot in Westwood as the team lays claim to its national championship.
I'm sure there are many of you out there who are sure that the season will end up somewhere between the two scenarios I have presented. But keep in mind that if you look at our schedule, we are currently favored in every single game.
If we entered the Fiesta Bowl undefeated, it would be hard to make us the underdog against anybody. My prediction? The best case scenario is ours.Greg Lewis
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