Scouting report: UCLA vs Oregon
Junior quarterback Josh Rosen will be contending with a team that doesn’t do a great job defending the pass Saturday, which could mean a shootout is imminent. (Kristie-Valerie Hoang/Assistant photo editor)
By Vikram Sairam
Oct. 19, 2017 11:01 p.m.
It’s homecoming weekend, and oftentimes homecoming games are set against easier opponents to ensure a sense of victory for senior players and the student body – not to mention that it’s Bruin Family Weekend.
But that won’t be the case for UCLA Bruins, as they face the Oregon Ducks.
The Bruins come in as only a 6.5 point favorite against a Ducks team that has been inconsistent throughout the season, but this Willie Taggart-led team is similar to the various heralded Oregon teams of the past in that it has elite athletes, in terms of speed and physicality, on both sides of the ball.
UCLA is trying to avoid falling below .500 on the season as well receiving its third conference loss, and Oregon will be looking to get out of second-to-last place in the Pac-12 North. Here’s a breakdown of Oregon’s offensive and defensive schemes heading into Saturday’s matchup at the Rose Bowl.
Oregon’s Offense
Base formation: Spread
Run/Pass Ratio: 64/36
Strengths: Power run game
Weaknesses: Quarterback consistency
X-Factor: Running back Royce Freeman
Four games into the season, Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert was sitting pretty at 3-1. Against California on Sept. 30, Herbert earned his fourth win of the season, but broke his collarbone in the process. To this point, the Oregon offense had been averaging 49.6 points a game.
Now enter the Washington State game, in which Ducks’ third-stringer Braxton Burmeister got the nod after backup Taylor Alie was also injured in the win against Cal the week before. While the true freshman faced a tough schedule – a stout Washington State team and an explosive Stanford team the following week – his play was dismal.
Watch his attempt at a back-shoulder fade into double coverage, leading to an interception against Stanford last week.
Oregon scored a combined 17 points in both of its losses to Washington State and Stanford, on top of giving up an astounding 82 points. Burmeister threw four interceptions and one touchdown in his two starts. His 52.8 percent completion rate and just 172 yards of passing has put the quarterback situation in the air, as Alie is a redshirt senior yet still nursing an injury.
Check out this underthrown ball against Washington State on Oct. 7.
The reason betting lines only have Oregon losing by one score is Oregon’s leading running back Royce Freeman. Freeman was a very highly touted recruit coming out of Imperial, California, known for his bulldozing running style of running.
Freeman’s also bulldozed his way into the top 10 in total rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in the country. A lot of that is courtesy of an offensive line that is averaging 244.6 yards a game on top of 26 rushing touchdowns – second-best in the nation.
Despite running out of the spread, Oregon still runs a variety of power runs and tosses in order to utilize Freeman’s downhill ability. He actually just moved into the Pac-12’s fourth all-time leading rusher this past weekend. Expect this guy and his offensive line to make an impact early and often.
His greatest trait is arguably his ball-carrier vision. Freeman still put up 143 yards rushing on just 18 carries despite losing 7-49 last week in Palo Alto, California. Watch him find the hole despite the heavy blitz in the play below.
Oregon’s Defense
Base Formation: 3-4
Blitz Tendency: Heavy
Strengths: Volatile pass rush
Weaknesses: Tendency to give up big pass plays
X Factor: Linebacker Troy Dye
Oregon has always been known for its speed and athleticism on defense, and this year proves to be no different.
The front four have put up a staggering 24 sacks seven games into the season – second-best in the country. To be fair, 11 of those sacks came in their games against Cal and Washington State, but this is nonetheless impressive.
The unit was lacking in depth early in the season, but was bolstered by the late additions of defensive lineman Scott Pagano and wide receiver Malik Young, both of who will continue to see extended playing times as they progress into game shape. Nine different players have registered a sack for the Ducks. UCLA’s offensive line will have to improve against a hot pass rush.
However, the real gem of the defense lies within the linebacker crew.
Safety-turned-linebacker Troy Dye is the undisputed leader on this side of the ball, leading the team in tackles and tackles for loss with 62 and 7, respectively. He’s also snagged one interception on the year and has adept coverage ability because of his time at safety, making him a nightmare for offensive coordinators.
Thomas Graham Jr. was one of the most sought-after cornerback recruits in the country last year, and was considered to be one of the top corners in California out of Rancho Cucamonga High School. Many thought he could end up at UCLA, but the true freshman signed his letter of intent with Oregon.
He’s currently second in the team in tackles behind Dye, and leads the team in interceptions with two. While he does posses some serious speed and athletic ability, he’ll be up against a veteran group of receivers led by redshirt senior Darren Andrews and redshirt junior Jordan Lasley.
Oregon also throws a lot of different fronts within its 3-4 scheme, similar to Arizona last week. Oregon’s hybrid position is known as the “Duck” position, and consists of a player who can adapt his play based on the look he or his coach sees from the offenses formation.
The “Duck” position allows for versatility as the player can bring pressure on passing third downs and run situations, or drop back in coverage on definite pass plays. Currently, linebackers La’Mar Winston Jr. and Fotu T. Leiato II see “Duck” spot duties – both versatile, hard-hitting, two-way players – but neither have found apparent success.
Oregon’s pass defense is currently ranked 118th, and the unit has given up 15 passing touchdowns on the year. Watch out for UCLA’s junior quarterback Josh Rosen to have a huge bounce back game against a suspect Oregon pass coverage.
Check out Stanford receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside simply outhustle Oregon corner Arrion Springs for this 50/50 ball on man-to-man coverage.
With the Ducks having such a big question mark under center, all things are pointing to a Freeman-versus-Rosen matchup – the quintessential run versus pass.
UCLA has been victim to the big run all year, while Oregon has fallen to chunk yardage pass plays. Whoever’s defense can force the opposing offense out of its comfort zone will earn the victory in this matchup.
