Beat writers’ game day predictions: UCLA v. Cal
By Jordan Lee
Oct. 17, 2014 1:25 a.m.
Prior to each UCLA football game, the Daily Bruin football beat writers will predict the score and give a short reasoning behind their prediction.
To keep track of how far off each writer’s predictions are from reality, the “prediction differential” statistic shows the average difference between the writer’s predicted margin of victory and the actual margin of victory in each game.
Kevin Bowman’s prediction
UCLA: 45
Cal: 31
Prediction record: 5-1
Prediction differential: 15.7
When two talented passing offenses meet two struggling passing defenses, the result is a whole lot of points.
Cal boasts the nation’s No. 4 passing attack, but the nation’s worst pass defense in terms of passing yards per game. UCLA, meanwhile, sits near the middle in both statistics, but has shown flashes of brilliance offensively and areas to exploit defensively.
So the trick for the Bruins is finding a way to keep the ball away from the Golden Bears’ potent offense; if they don’t have the ball, they can’t put up big numbers through the air.
UCLA may try to slow the tempo down in order to limit the number of plays Cal can run, but even if it becomes a shootout, UCLA has the better defense and a more well-rounded offense to outlast Cal.
Chris Kalra’s prediction
UCLA: 45
Cal: 44
Prediction record: 5-1
Prediction differential: 15.3
Two teams that can fling it on offense and can’t play a lick of defense – that’s primetime entertainment just in time for lunch on Saturday. What a bargain.
As mediocre as UCLA has looked at times this season, I don’t see the Bruins losing three in a row. UCLA fans have their hands super-glued to the panic button now, but come on, three straight losses? The Bruins aren’t as good as most thought they would be, but they’re not a bad team, and on talent alone, they’re still better than mediocre.
This game will be close, the difference just a sliver narrower than the tightrope UCLA’s season is walking on with this game’s outcome. But I say UCLA pulls it off.
And, going on a pure gut feeling here, I think the Bruins’ defense makes a critical stand to clinch it at the end. Because fate has got to throw defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich a PR bone sooner or later. It’s been rough for him lately.
Jordan Lee’s prediction
UCLA: 42
Cal: 35
Prediction record: 5-1
Prediction differential: 16.8
(Note: Jordan Lee missed perfectly predicting last week’s score by one point.)
This one has all the makings of a shootout. Cal loves to throw the ball but can’t stop the pass, while UCLA can move the ball but has struggled to stop anyone over the last three weeks.
Before last week’s 31-7 loss to Washington, quarterback Jared Goff and the Cal offense was putting up 50 points per game. The Bruins defense isn’t on the same level as the Huskies, so it’s more likely than not that the Bears will return to form this week.
Fortunately for UCLA, it has an offense perfectly capable of putting up points, provided redshirt junior quarterback Brett Hundley has time to throw. UCLA can help out its defense by slowing down the game and establishing redshirt sophomore running back Paul Perkins – 549 rushing yards in his last four games – early and often.
Even if the game does devolve into a track meet, the Bruins have more than enough firepower on offense to matchup with the Bears and a quarterback in Hundley who will make plays with his arm and legs. Expect him to challenge the Cal defense deep early, as the Bears lost starting safety Griffin Piatt and cornerback Joel Willis for the year with ACL injuries this week. UCLA gets back on the winning track in a big way Saturday.
Compiled by Kevin Bowman, Chris Kalra and Jordan Lee, Bruin Sports senior staff.
