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Beat writers’ game day predictions: UCLA v. Oregon

By Chris Kalra, Kevin Bowman, and Jordan Lee

Oct. 10, 2014 4:11 a.m.

Prior to each UCLA football game, the Daily Bruin football beat writers will predict the score and give a short reasoning behind their prediction.

To keep track of how far off each writer’s predictions are from reality, the “prediction differential” statistic shows the average difference between the writer’s predicted margin of victory and the actual margin of victory in each game.

Kevin Bowman’s prediction

Oregon: 45

UCLA: 31

Prediction record: 4-1

Prediction differential: 23.0

UCLA should bounce back from their poor performance against Utah, but even so, limiting Oregon’s offense is just too tall of a task. UCLA’s defense has looked exploitable this year, particularly in the passing game. But last week, it also showed a weakness in defending a mobile quarterback. So going against a quarterback like Oregon’s Marcus Mariota could get ugly, considering the redshirt junior excels in both those areas.

The Ducks do have a weakness along the offensive line, so if the Bruins can create enough pressure to force Mariota into making some rare, poor decisions, that could help. But ratcheting up the pass rush could also leave holes for Mariota to hurt UCLA with his feet. The Bruins are in for their biggest challenge of the year.

Chris Kalra’s prediction

Oregon: 45

UCLA: 34

Prediction record: 4-1

Prediction differential: 23.3

In a way, this is a season-defining game for UCLA. A second loss likely nudges the Bruins out of the rankings, with their Pac-12 South title hopes flailing right behind. A win keeps UCLA in the driver’s seat for the division title, with the season’s train veering back on course.

With so much on the line, how will UCLA respond? In last year’s 42-14 loss against Oregon, redshirt junior quarterback Brett Hundley threw a season-low 64 yards. How will Hundley do?

Meanwhile, this season the Bruins’ defense has been sporadic at best, and atrocious at worst. Which will we see versus Oregon? In the end, I just don’t see UCLA having enough – enough offense, enough defense or enough pure grit – to knock off a team like Oregon.

Jordan Lee’s prediction

Oregon: 42

UCLA: 31

Prediction record: 4-1

Prediction differential: 25.5

No matter who wins this game, it should at least be entertaining for the full four quarters this time. Oddly enough, this game actually carries more importance than it did a week ago – when both teams were undefeated – as neither can likely afford a second loss if they hope to make the inaugural College Football Playoff.

If, and it’s a huge ‘if’, the Bruins’ offensive line can protect Hundley, then UCLA will almost certainly be able to put up points. UCLA has shown an aptitude for the big play – the Bruins have 11 touchdowns of 30 yards or more – while Oregon has a propensity for yielding those plays to opposing offenses.

The trouble will be limiting the Ducks on offense. The Bruins were burned by two backup quarterbacks – Arizona State’s redshirt junior Mike Bercovici through the air and Utah’s junior Kendal Thompson on the ground – in the last two weeks. Oregon redshirt junior quarterback Marcus Mariota easily outclasses both of those respective signal callers as one of, if not the, nation’s top dual-threat quarterback and possibly the best overall player. While UCLA’s defense says it has learned from the past two games, limiting Mariota is an enormous task that few have been able to pull off. And so is defeating Oregon.

UCLA has the firepower to pull off the victory, but it might not be quick enough off the draw.

Compiled by Kevin Bowman, Chris Kalra and Jordan Lee, Bruin Sports senior staff.

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Chris Kalra | Alumnus
Kalra joined the Bruin as a freshman in 2011 and contributed until 2014. He was an assistant Sports editor for the 2013-2014 academic year and spent time on the football, women's basketball, men's soccer and beach volleyball beats.
Kalra joined the Bruin as a freshman in 2011 and contributed until 2014. He was an assistant Sports editor for the 2013-2014 academic year and spent time on the football, women's basketball, men's soccer and beach volleyball beats.
Kevin Bowman | Alumnus
Jordan Lee | Alumnus
Lee joined the Bruin as a freshman in 2011 and contributed until he graduated in 2011. He was an assistant Sports editor for the 2013-2014 academic year and spent time on the football, men's basketball, softball and women's volleyball beats.
Lee joined the Bruin as a freshman in 2011 and contributed until he graduated in 2011. He was an assistant Sports editor for the 2013-2014 academic year and spent time on the football, men's basketball, softball and women's volleyball beats.
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