Bruins forecast weather in national competition
By Jennifer Lauren Lee
Oct. 6, 2003 9:00 p.m.
UCLA students in atmospheric sciences are testing their
classroom skills in a 26-week national weather forecasting
competition that began this past Monday.
The National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest involves
over 700 students and faculty from more than 30 universities across
the country, according to UCLA’s staff meteorologist James
Murakami, a member and advisor on the team.
MIT, Penn State and the University of Texas are some of the
schools against which UCLA is competing.
Gregory Masi, a graduate student in the atmospheric sciences,
organized the team this year after having competed in the
forecasting contest as an undergraduate at Penn State.
“I didn’t even know if that many people would be
interested, but we had a pretty big turnout,” said Masi.
Of the 15 people on the team, 13 are graduate students in the
atmospheric sciences. The other two participants are Murakami and
an undergraduate atmospheric sciences student.
“It gives me a chance to test my forecasting skills and
also to understand how forecasting works in different (areas of the
country),” said Brendan Rubin-Oster, a first-year atmospheric
sciences graduate student.
All contestants are given a location somewhere in the country to
forecast for a two-week period. Each day, participants attempt to
predict the high and low temperatures and the amount of
precipitation for the next day. The closer their predictions are,
the higher they ““ and their team ““ are ranked.
This week the city is Calumet, Mich. ““ a tricky spot, said
Masi, because part of the area extends into the middle of one of
the Great Lakes.
“It’s not your basic, standard forecast,” he
said.
Some of the other places the UCLA team will be forecasting
include Billings, Mont.; St. Louis, Mo.; Chicago, Ill.; and
Flagstaff, Ariz. Although there are 13 two-week forecasting periods
in the competition, UCLA only plans to participate in 8 of
them.
“We’re excluding (ourselves from) ones that
conflicted with exams or vacation times, or when we’re not in
school,” said Rubin-Oster.
At the beginning of each week, before they split off
individually to forecast, the UCLA team meets to discuss the latest
weather maps.
“We look at the big picture, try to point out major
weather features to look for in these areas,” he said.
Team members make individual forecasts but also get ranked as a
team, so it is in their best interests to help one another to some
extent.
“It brings people together in the department,” said
Masi. “It’s fun to compare your answers.”
Masi said he and his fellow competitors study the recent
meteorological history for the area where they must forecast.
“You have to do some interpolation, trust your
instinct,” Masi said.
The team tracks cold fronts and warm fronts, identifying areas
of low and high pressure and predicting how those areas will affect
the weather of the cities around them.
“You’re learning about the different atmospheric
variables in classes, but you never really see (them) in
action,” Masi added. “It solidifies your understanding
of some of the concepts you’re learning about in
classes.”
At the moment, the team is struggling to predict whether a cold
front ““ a pocket of cold air that pushes into a pocket of
warmer air ““ which is threatening to pass across northern
Michigan, will pass over the city they are forecasting for.
“We don’t want to misjudge because after it passes
it will be cold like crazy,” Rubin-Oster said, explaining
that the warm air above Calumnet would be drastically displaced by
the cold front.
“That would be a lot of points off,” he added.
 The first week’s scores put UCLA right in the middle
of the ranking, but according to Masi, the next two-week period
gives UCLA an advantage as forecasters turn their interpretive
skills toward Los Angeles.
The team will be at an advantage over other teams which may not
be as familiar with conditions in Los Angeles, including the Santa
Ana winds, Masi said.
